Racing trends (field size, horses, starts, etc.)

[cj]

A lot of discussion about this in the Santa Anita delayed opening thread but wanted to start a new thread since it has become a topic of its own.



The horses column is unique horses to start during the year. There was a lot of talk about horses not running as much, but that hasn't really been the main factor in dropping field size. Horses are starting about the same amount of times per year over the whole span of 11 years.

What is decreasing is the number of horses. The is the biggest problem the game has right now. It is causing the number of races being run to drop off, but it isn't dropping as fast as the horse population. Imagine if we tried to run 2009 level of races with the 2019 horse population.

[castaway01]

I've posted the same thing so many times, so obviously I agree with you. It's not even a matter of "agreeing" though, because it's simple numbers.

Added to this, per the Jockey Club the U.S. foal crop declined from 32,000 foals to 21,500 in this period, or 33%. Total number of unique horses racing (per your chart) declined 28% (obviously not all horses running in the U.S. are foaled in this country, so I assume that and statistical noise makes up the difference).

I'm not sure how to get more people interested in breeding. Is it just not that profitable, or is the demand for more horses (in sales) not there? I know racetracks need horses and bettors would like bigger fields, but with these trends I don't see how it comes to pass.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I've posted the same thing so many times, so obviously I agree with you. It's not even a matter of "agreeing" though, because it's simple numbers.

Added to this, per the Jockey Club the U.S. foal crop declined from 32,000 foals to 21,500 in this period, or 33%. Total number of unique horses racing (per your chart) declined 28% (obviously not all horses running in the U.S. are foaled in this country, so I assume that and statistical noise makes up the difference).

I'm not sure how to get more people interested in breeding. Is it just not that profitable, or is the demand for more horses (in sales) not there? I know racetracks need horses and bettors would like bigger fields, but with these trends I don't see how it comes to pass.

They will breed more when ( or if ) there is the necessary demand. Less owners=less need for horses.

[jay68802]

Average field size is higher than I thought it would be, but not by much.

Thought these numbers might add a little to the conversation.
Foal crop for those years.

2009: 29,612

2010: 25,954

2011: 22,653

2012: 21,469

2013: 21,429

2014: 21,418

2015: 21,486

2016: 21,024

2017: 20,900

2018: 19,925

[jay68802]

I guess my line of thinking follows what a few are saying here. The sport needs to concentrate on 2 things, and they are obvious.

New owners

New handicappers

Can't say one is more important than the other.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I guess my line of thinking follows what a few are saying here. The sport needs to concentrate on 2 things, and they are obvious.

New owners

New handicappers

Can't say one is more important than the other.

Yep, and I'll probably get flamed for this, but I'd say it is more and . Without more owners and thus more horses, you won't get better fields and you won't get new handicappers. Both are important obviously, but the lack of owners/horses/foals is the number 1 problem for me.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, and I'll probably get flamed for this, but I'd say it is more and . Without more owners and thus more horses, you won't get better fields and you won't get new handicappers. Both are important obviously, but the lack of owners/horses/foals is the number 1 problem for me.

For a start, I would agree with you. But in the long run, I think they change positions. Really "flamed" you there.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by cj

A lot of discussion about this in the Santa Anita delayed opening thread but wanted to start a new thread since it has become a topic of its own.



The horses column is unique horses to start during the year. There was a lot of talk about horses not running as much, but that hasn't really been the main factor in dropping field size. Horses are starting about the same amount of times per year over the whole span of 11 years.

What is decreasing is the number of horses. The is the biggest problem the game has right now. It is causing the number of races being run to drop off, but it isn't dropping as fast as the horse population. Imagine if we tried to run 2009 level of races with the 2019 horse population.

I've seen some other numbers where the horse population is halved from the 80's. That being said they only breed as many horses as there is a need for it. If the demand for the sport isn't there they aren't just going to breed so many horses that they don't have any owners taking care of it. These animals cost a lot to money to take care of.

[RunForTheRoses]

Median field size, if available, would be interesting.

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by horsefan2019

If the demand for the sport isn't there they aren't just going to breed so many horses that they don't have any owners taking care of it. These animals cost a lot to money to take care of.

this steadily falling demand exists despite its flowing into a fierce wind of unprecedented creation of wealth in the last seven years in this country. At least in the upper half, peoples’ net worth has soared, but notably fewer are interested in transferring that wealth into owning horses.

What happens when, as it always has in the past, the economy finally goes flat or into a recession? Easy to imagine a scenario wherein, as far as the number who own horses as a hobby, the outflow turns into a stampede for the doors.

That will be when the whole paradigm of how race horses are owned gets turned on its ear.

[cj]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Median field size, if available, would be interesting.

I can do that when I have some time, but it won't be today.

[GMB@BP]

They need to reduce races then, if you cant get 8+ average you need to reduce dates.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by Cholly

this steadily falling demand exists despite its flowing into a fierce wind of unprecedented creation of wealth in the last seven years in this country. At least in the upper half, peoples’ net worth has soared, but notably fewer are interested in transferring that wealth into owning horses.

What happens when, as it always has in the past, the economy finally goes flat or into a recession? Easy to imagine a scenario wherein, as far as the number who own horses as a hobby, the outflow turns into a stampede for the doors.

That will be when the whole paradigm of how race horses are owned gets turned on its ear.

Agreed. How many of the uber rich (ones that aren't from oil rich nations) are interested in racing horses. One of the higher profile owners is Matress Mack and he doesn't fit in to the profile of tech billionaires. If the sport is to be in good hands, they need some infusion of young blood and as far as I see it there aren't a lot of those interested.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Cholly

this steadily falling demand exists despite its flowing into a fierce wind of unprecedented creation of wealth in the last seven years in this country. At least in the upper half, peoples’ net worth has soared, but notably fewer are interested in transferring that wealth into owning horses.

What happens when, as it always has in the past, the economy finally goes flat or into a recession? Easy to imagine a scenario wherein, as far as the number who own horses as a hobby, the outflow turns into a stampede for the doors.

That will be when the whole paradigm of how race horses are owned gets turned on its ear.

So many better things to do with your money today.

Things that are enjoyed daily. Not every 3 weeks. Airplanes and Cars last longer than a horse. Boats and Yachts the same.

Houses and exotic locales, reachable in a day or so.......

Horses would not be my first outlet for recreational funds

[davew]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I guess my line of thinking follows what a few are saying here. The sport needs to concentrate on 2 things, and they are obvious.

New owners

New handicappers

Can't say one is more important than the other.

I suspect the total number of horse owners making money from their horses is even less than the number of handicappers making money from betting on them.

What is the average loss per horse per year? somewhere near $10K ?