2019 Male 3-year-old-champ

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I agree with you Tom. If he does what you propose, Tacitus would have beaten Code of Honor(COH) twice(in JCGC & BCC, assuming COH runs in the BCC) and lost to him twice(in the K.Derby and Travers). COH would have a G1, G2 and G3 on his resume(Travers, Dryer & Fountain of Youth), and Tacitus have two G1s and two G2s (BCC, JCGC, Wood and Tampa). Even if he came in 2nd in the BCC, Tacitus’ record would still be better as far as graded stakes.

As far as Maximum Security (MS). MS would have three G1s (Fl. Derby, Haskell, and PA Derby (assuming he wins it)). Tacitus would have beaten him twice, K. Derby (MS was disqualified, remember? ) and in the BCC.

Even if Tacitus comes in second to an older horse in the BCC, I would still give it to him because of his three seconds (Jim D, Belmont, Travers). You got to admire a guy who fires in every race. He reminds me a little bit of Hard Spun. He may not win but he will show up.

There's two problems here: (1) you are way underrating Maximum Security and (2) you are way overrating Tacitus.

Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he was rightfully disqualfiied. But voters aren't going to pretend that he didn't finish first. Nor should they. He was the best horse in the race and basically dominated the thing.

Maximum Security also won of the most important post-Derby Grade I's, the Haskell. Many 3 year old champions and a few Horses of the Year won the Haskell.

In contrast, Tacitus won a couple of Derby preps. I don't care what the grading on Derby preps are, they are still prep races. They aren't that important for year end honors. In the important races, Tacitus has proven time and time again he isn't good enough.

Now, if Tacitus wins the BC Classic, he will have finally won an important race. (Again, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, no matter its history, is a prep race in 2019. Check out its recent list of winners. So I think a win in that race will just cement Tacitus' reputation that he never wins anything important.) So he will get some votes for 3 year old of the year if he does that. But the three 3 year olds who can really cement 3 year old of the year if they win the BC Classic are Maximum Security, Code of Honor, and War of Will, all of whom have already finished first in important 3 year old races.

Indeed, if I were advising the Tacitus people, I would tell them to avoid the JCGC, which never seems to produce anything that wins a BC race or an Eclipse Award, and instead just run wherever Maximum Security runs and try to beat him.

[Tom]

And JCGC is for OLDER horses.
That beats the Fla Derby and the Monmouth race.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Indeed, if I were advising the Tacitus people, I would tell them to avoid the JCGC, which never seems to produce anything that wins a BC race or an Eclipse Award, and instead just run wherever Maximum Security runs and try to beat him.

Blame, Drosselmeyer and Fort Larned all came out the JCGC to win the BC Classic. It's produced more BC Classic winners in the last 10 years than any other race.

[Tom]

Yeah, but you ignore those three and what have you got?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

There's two problems here: (1) you are way underrating Maximum Security and (2) you are way overrating Tacitus.

Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he was rightfully disqualfiied. But voters aren't going to pretend that he didn't finish first. Nor should they. He was the best horse in the race and basically dominated the thing.
Maximum Security also won of the most important post-Derby Grade I's, the Haskell. Many 3 year old champions and a few Horses of the Year won the Haskell.
In contrast, Tacitus won a couple of Derby preps. I don't care what the grading on Derby preps are, they are still prep races. They aren't that important for year end honors. In the important races, Tacitus has proven time and time again he isn't good enough.
Now, if Tacitus wins the BC Classic, he will have finally won an important race. (Again, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, no matter its history, is a prep race in 2019. Check out its recent list of winners. So I think a win in that race will just cement Tacitus' reputation that he never wins anything important.) So he will get some votes for 3 year old of the year if he does that. But the three 3 year olds who can really cement 3 year old of the year if they win the BC Classic are Maximum Security, Code of Honor, and War of Will, all of whom have already finished first in important 3 year old races.
Indeed, if I were advising the Tacitus people, I would tell them to avoid the JCGC, which never seems to produce anything that wins a BC race or an Eclipse Award, and instead just run wherever Maximum Security runs and try to beat him.

I'm a Max Sec fan, but your fandom is bordering on pure craziness.

Max may be the 'Leader in the Clubhouse' per say, but he has to finish. We have seen him getting beat, and passed, by a supposed inferior horse after the Triple Crown Trail in which he only ran 1 leg. He ran great in the Haskell, but we haven't seen him since. In short, he has beat Code of Honor once (FL Derby) and Mucho Gusto. That. Is. It.

Current NTRA poll has Code of Honor listed as the 1st 3YO. Thus, both Max and Tacitus (or anybody else) need to 'pass' him on the track to get the nod.

Tacitus has showed up every time he has raced. Excuses abound (and I've been a harsh critic), he is as solid as any other 3YO in this crop thus far. With the elder crop being more front-runners than stalkers/closers, that should be to the benefit of horses like Tacitus and COH and to the detriment of MaxSec when they go 10 panels again.

Preservationist and McKinzie show up in the BCC with MaxSec, how confident are you that he'll get it done, or at least finish in front of every other 3YO in the field? I'm certainly not. I'd look for a 3YO that shows his best strides late; and that is Tacitus and COH, even on a speed-favoring Santa strip.

And lets not forget these 'crappy G1/G2 prep' races before the BC Classic.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I'm a Max Sec fan, but your fandom is bordering on pure craziness.

Max may be the 'Leader in the Clubhouse' per say, but he has to finish. We have seen him getting beat, and passed, by a supposed inferior horse after the Triple Crown Trail in which he only ran 1 leg. He ran great in the Haskell, but we haven't seen him since. In short, he has beat Code of Honor once (FL Derby) and Mucho Gusto. That. Is. It.

Current NTRA poll has Code of Honor listed as the 1st 3YO. Thus, both Max and Tacitus (or anybody else) need to 'pass' him on the track to get the nod.

Tacitus has showed up every time he has raced. Excuses abound (and I've been a harsh critic), he is as solid as any other 3YO in this crop thus far. With the elder crop being more front-runners than stalkers/closers, that should be to the benefit of horses like Tacitus and COH and to the detriment of MaxSec when they go 10 panels again.

Preservationist and McKinzie show up in the BCC with MaxSec, how confident are you that he'll get it done, or at least finish in front of every other 3YO in the field? I'm certainly not. I'd look for a 3YO that shows his best strides late; and that is Tacitus and COH, even on a speed-favoring Santa strip.

And lets not forget these 'crappy G1/G2 prep' races before the BC Classic.

Tacitus has beat Tax and Outshined. That. Is. It.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by delsully

Tacitus has beat Tax and Outshined. That. Is. It.

You can also include War of Will (twice), Owendale, and Mucho Gusto.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

You can also include War of Will (twice), Owendale, and Mucho Gusto.

The horse is good, no doubt.

I’m just not sure how much weight finishing ahead of these horses in races you didn’t win will carry when it comes down to it.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by delsully

The horse is good, no doubt.

I’m just not sure how much weight finishing ahead of these horses in races you didn’t win will carry when it comes down to it.

2013 Breeder's Cup ran at Santa Anita.

1st - Mucho Macho Man (4YO) - a flat out grinder in its purest sense

2nd- Will Take Charge (3YO) - Bridesmaid all year, grew up late

Declaration of War was 3rd in a pure blanket finish in which the top 3 finished within a head of each other.

Will Take Charge was 8th, 10th, and 7th in the Triple Crown races that year and won 3YO of the year, and rightfully so. They ran that horse, and sure it was Lukas, but that horse kept getting better. They are running Tacitus because he can. He is getting better. I have no reason to believe we have seen his best race this year.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

2013 Breeder's Cup ran at Santa Anita.

1st - Mucho Macho Man (4YO) - a flat out grinder in its purest sense

2nd- Will Take Charge (3YO) - Bridesmaid all year, grew up late

Declaration of War was 3rd in a pure blanket finish in which the top 3 finished within a head of each other.

Will Take Charge was 8th, 10th, and 7th in the Triple Crown races that year and won 3YO of the year, and rightfully so. They ran that horse, and sure it was Lukas, but that horse kept getting better. They are running Tacitus because he can. He is getting better. I have no reason to believe we have seen his best race this year.

He also WON the G1 Travers and G2 PA derby and the G1 Clark.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by delsully

He also WON the G1 Travers and G2 PA derby and the G1 Clark.

Yes he did. Clark was after the BC Classic, and obviously the PA Derby has yet to happen this year.

All I'm saying is that there are many flowers in this crop that could bloom. Pigeon-holing any of these 3YOs that are 'on the board' for the honor is extremely premature in my opinion.

I think we have 3 to 5 or so of these 3YOs in this crop that can really finish strong. (And heck, I may be limiting myself in this day and age of racing.) .

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Yes he did. Clark was after the BC Classic, and obviously the PA Derby has yet to happen this year.

All I'm saying is that there are many flowers in this crop that could bloom. Pigeon-holing any of these 3YOs that are 'on the board' for the honor is extremely premature in my opinion.

I think we have 3 to 5 or so of these 3YOs in this crop that can really finish strong. (And heck, I may be limiting myself in this day and age of racing.) .

I agree, nobody has anything wrapped up but it’s Max and Code of Honor’s to lose.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by delsully

I agree, nobody has anything wrapped up but it’s Max and Code of Honor’s to lose.

Sorry, but I'll never see it that way.

It is, and has always been, any horses ability to win.

Nobody has won it yet in this crop. They all need to go win it.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Sorry, but I'll never see it that way.

It is, and has always been, any horses ability to win.

Nobody has won it yet in this crop. They all need to go win it.

A fitting end to this disastrous year for horse racing would be a DQ in the BC Classic AND a dead heat for second....Of course, the BC Classic will be sponsored by RUNHAPPY and STAR GUITAR.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

A fitting end to this disastrous year for horse racing would be a DQ in the BC Classic AND a dead heat for second....Of course, the BC Classic will be sponsored by RUNHAPPY and STAR GUITAR.

I think Runhappy should be horse of the year. He has had the biggest impact of any horse this year.