The Big Bankroll Building Challenge

[EMD4ME]

0/3 today on plays.

Starting bankroll $2,000


New bankroll: $1,977.97

[2low]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

0/3 today on plays.

Starting bankroll $2,000


New bankroll: $1,977.97

It's going around. I think I was 1/X with a nice loss myself. Looking back through my results, it seems that luck is lumpy - long stretches of the bad and shorter, but more intense stretches of the good. How nice it would be to win 10%/day every day...

Today is Sunday, the day of the week I plan to review all tracks and add/subtract tracks from live wagering. GPX was on the edge, so I may lose that one. I have several that were close to profitable, so I may add tracks too.

[EMD4ME]

I totally forgot this thread

In real life I bet

Race 4 WPS 1 (Ran 2nd at double digit odds)
Race 5 place 4 (won)
Race 8 show 3 at 27/1 (ran 2nd)
Race 9 show 3


Too bad I forgot about this thread so.....


1 official play (race) for today.

$100 place 3 AQU race 9.

.30 super 3 / 10 / 12468911 / 12468911 cost $12.60

.10 super 3 / 10 / all / all Cost $7.20

.30 super 3 / 12468911 / 10 / 12468911 Cost $12.60

.10 super 3 / all / 10 / all Cost $7.20

.30 super 3 / 12468911 / 12468911 / 10 Cost $12.60

.10 super 3 / all / all / 10 Cost $7.20


.20 super 10 / 3 / 12468911 / 12468911 Cost $8.40

.10 super 10 / 3 / all / all Cost $7.20

$75 in supers. $100 in Place bets on 3.

Total $175

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

0/3 today on plays.

Starting bankroll $2,000


New bankroll: $1,977.97

Minus $175 in the 1 race I remembered to post about.

New bankroll $1,802.97 Starting bankroll, $2,000

[2low]

My current data set of races wagered started on January 18th, and has 173 wagers through today. So, I guess during winter racing, I can expect roughly 35 wagers per week or so. Win, Place and Show wagers have netted very similar returns.

For this week - stub week of three days betting only select tracks - I lost a little. The bankroll stands at $189.

Tracks removed for next week: Gulfstream Park
Tracks added for next week: None

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Minus $175 in the 1 race I remembered to post about.

New bankroll $1,802.97 Starting bankroll, $2,000

2/27/17

Race 10 Sam Houston $60 win 7. $30 Ex 3-7. $10 Ex 7-3

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

2/27/17

Race 10 Sam Houston $60 win 7. $30 Ex 3-7. $10 Ex 7-3

2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).

Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.

$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97


Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.

3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).

Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.

$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97


Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.

3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50

I really like this format...I wish the Andy and David thread could proceed like this..instead of handicapping every race and arriving at a pick....they should post a bank roll with wagering patterns posted so anyone who wanted to could follow along with their betting also....THAT would be a real measure of success....we really need to pick and choose to have any chance of beating this game at all...thanks for posting your picks EMD4ME

[menifee]

Originally Posted by 2low

My current data set of races wagered started on January 18th, and has 173 wagers through today. So, I guess during winter racing, I can expect roughly 35 wagers per week or so. Win, Place and Show wagers have netted very similar returns.

For this week - stub week of three days betting only select tracks - I lost a little. The bankroll stands at $189.

Tracks removed for next week: Gulfstream Park
Tracks added for next week: None

Very cool that you are publicizing this. Out of curiosity, are you charting your return on your underlays. Not to be critical, because I admire you for doing this, but I don't see how due to the law of large numbers you could ever be profitable given that your model sometimes bets on underlays and ignores odds.

[2low]

Originally Posted by menifee

Very cool that you are publicizing this. Out of curiosity, are you charting your return on your underlays. Not to be critical, because I admire you for doing this, but I don't see how due to the law of large numbers you could ever be profitable given that your model sometimes bets on underlays and ignores odds.

I would argue that that's exactly what I am doing, but just in a different way. Maybe a little backstory...

Several years ago when I started building my software, that's what I was doing. I would run my software and it would select the contenders and the odds I needed to bet them. I lost and lost. I realized that I could never be as good at setting odds on a horse as the blended public opinion on any one horse in any one race. Plus, the odds on my horse would often drop a lot after my bet went through. Also, I couldn't place conditional bets on place and show wagers. Basically, looking for odds just didn't work very well for me. So, I took a long break to regroup. I'm not a gambler. I need to win or I'll quit until I think I have another strategy worth funding. That's what I did. I needed a new outlook.

I thought a lot about odds lines and what they meant to me and what I needed to do in order for them to work for me. I don't and have never doubted the validity of setting a personal odds line, I just don't feel like I'm very good at it relative to the betting public.

But, what I do know is how my top selections perform at every track/surface/distance combination. I know that because I track them religiously. If I can look at a reasonably large sample of races and see that my horse with a certain set of criteria relative to the other horses in the race on average returns a profit at this particular track/surface/distance then my software must be picking a net overlay on average at that track/surface/distance. Boom. I have my odds line. It looks a little different than traditional odds lines, but it works the same way without the guess work.

Hopefully This is currently a theory, not a law.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I really like this format...I wish the Andy and David thread could proceed like this..instead of handicapping every race and arriving at a pick....they should post a bank roll with wagering patterns posted so anyone who wanted to could follow along with their betting also....THAT would be a real measure of success....we really need to pick and choose to have any chance of beating this game at all...thanks for posting your picks EMD4ME

Hello Vigors!

Great minds think alike. That may be down the pike in a future thread

[2low]

I'm enjoying a small slump entering March. Let's get this 7 home for the win in the 7th at TAM!! Statistically, my numbers show about a 34% chance of winning. Current odds are 10/1.

[2low]

Originally Posted by 2low

I'm enjoying a small slump entering March. Let's get this 7 home for the win in the 7th at TAM!! Statistically, my numbers show about a 34% chance of winning. Current odds are 10/1.

Crap. I forgot about the 66% chance of losing. That always wins.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).

Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.

$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97


Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.

3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50

Race 1 SAM HOUSTON TONIGHT:

$50 WIN $100 Place 5.

[EMD4ME]

$1,840.97



Bet $150, Collected $140 (ran 2nd at $2.80).

New bankroll $1,830.97