Mystik Dan

[bisket]

I always try to find a horse that’s trained in sneaky way that surprises bettors with a win out of nowhere. I thought Encino was just sneaky good coming into the Bluegrass. They scratched him and ran him in the Lexington, and he won. Now here we are a few weeks later and he scratched out of the derby. So it’s back to the drawing board for me. With a good probability of a wet or drying track my thoughts go back to a regretful miss on a horse that fits this sneaky good profile. I was debating horses to play in the Southwest and Mcpeek had a few I liked that I was going back and forth on. I eliminated Mystik Dan and he came in first at plus odds. So I go back to the form to see if a missed something, frustratingly I did. Starting in November he was raced frequently with very few works in the morning. In every race he backed up in the stretch. Which is what I saw in the form and it was the reason I eliminated him. I looked closer and his backing up made sense because he wasn’t working between races, and the races were for fitness. Prior to the Southwest he was given a month between races for the first time since November and he worked in the mornings. The first time since November he was given proper rest and trained correctly up to the race. He was sitting on a good race… Now looking at his Ark Derby he was do to regress. Maybe he’s ready to move forward again in the derby? He’s fast enough… I’m worried the distance doesn’t suit him, but if the tracks to his liking he definitely figures to either possibly win or hit the exotics at a good price. Hmmmm? That triple digit Beyer is the only other one in the race besides the favorite. Nobody has picked him or even discussed him at length. Until now

[gov135]

I have one more horse to eliminate from my exotics. This horse will not be the one.

I hear you on stamina. Goldencents. But female side bred for stamina.

Really troubled trip in Arkansas Derby.

Will use beneath and will be one of two longshots w modest saver bets in case two favorites don’t have it.

[boys at tosconova]

just steel buried this horse in every way imaginable last race.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

just steel buried this horse in every way imaginable last race.

But he wasn't trained in a 'sneaky way'.
And, he actually gained a little on Muth the last split - the only horse to do so in the race.

MD covered 6 more feet than JS per the GPS data. Negligible trouble aside, he's still interesting as he's the only one to close in the race - though he was backing up at the end - just not as bad as some of the others..

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

But he wasn't trained in a 'sneaky way'.
And, he actually gained a little on Muth the last split - the only horse to do so in the race.

MD covered 6 more feet than JS per the GPS data. Negligible trouble aside, he's still interesting as he's the only one to close in the race - though he was backing up at the end - just not as bad as some of the others..

there's some things to like. but his SW wasn't impressive as it looks. at least for me. but regardless of his trip in the arkderby it wasn't like steel's trip was beneficial enabling him to pull away from dan.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

But he wasn't trained in a 'sneaky way'.
And, he actually gained a little on Muth the last split - the only horse to do so in the race.

MD covered 6 more feet than JS per the GPS data. Negligible trouble aside, he's still interesting as he's the only one to close in the race - though he was backing up at the end - just not as bad as some of the others..

Trained like a claimer... He's bred and owned by the same stable. Maybe they like a good longshot to bet on? Bet him like a claimer. Well that's how I look at it. Everyone is looking at his races on Nov 12 and 25, and Jan 1 like he was supposed to win them..... So, he was just lucky to catch a fast rail and sealed track etc. etc etc. in the Southwest. Well maybe, just maybe, that was the race he was supposed to win.

[bisket]

He won the maiden at 5 1/2 furs with a 91 beyer 11/12. one 4 fur work then 1 mile allowance 11/23. I don't know if Secretariate could go from 5 1/2 furs to a mile off one work in 11 days.... 2 works and he finishes 5th only 3 1/2 lengths off the winner against some of the best 3 year olds at 1 1/16 mile Jan 1 in the Smarty Jones. 3 works and he wins the Southwest by open lengths with 101 beyer a month later. So in 2 months he went from 91 beyer in 5 1/2 furs to 101 at 1 1/16 lengths. I can excuse the Ark derby, and I think he's sitting on a race tomorrow. He had some nice works this month.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by bisket

He won the maiden at 5 1/2 furs with a 91 beyer 11/12. one 4 fur work then 1 mile allowance 11/23. I don't know if Secretariate could go from 5 1/2 furs to a mile off one work in 11 days.... 2 works and he finishes 5th only 3 1/2 lengths off the winner against some of the best 3 year olds at 1 1/16 mile Jan 1 in the Smarty Jones. 3 works and he wins the Southwest by open lengths with 101 beyer a month later. So in 2 months he went from 91 beyer in 5 1/2 furs to 101 at 1 1/16 lengths. I can excuse the Ark derby, and I think he's sitting on a race tomorrow. He had some nice works this month.

I just noticed that's a 96 beyer for the maiden race.... even better

[groupie doll]

I'd probably sing the praises of Mystik Dan more strongly if he didn't get the bias-aided rail trip for his big win. Yes, he does have that 96 going back to his MSW at CD. One could argue the Arkansas Derby race flow didn't favor him, but it wasn't a bad trip either. He was too far back early and just couldn't make up enough ground late. He was 2nd and 3rd last for most of the Ark Derby (and did get bothered slightly by Liberal Arts, but that was prob negligible).
The best trip tomorrow would probably be if he can race in a mid-pack position, save ground and make an early move into the stretch.
I'm using him on my tickets primarily because he is fast, has run well at CD and it's very wide open after Fierceness. He's a lot more appealing at 19-1 to me than a horse like Sierra Leone, currently at 5-1.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

I'd probably sing the praises of Mystik Dan more strongly if he didn't get the bias-aided rail trip for his big win. Yes, he does have that 96 going back to his MSW at CD. One could argue the Arkansas Derby race flow didn't favor him, but it wasn't a bad trip either. He was too far back early and just couldn't make up enough ground late. He was 2nd and 3rd last for most of the Ark Derby (and did get bothered slightly by Liberal Arts, but that was prob negligible).
The best trip tomorrow would probably be if he can race in a mid-pack position, save ground and make an early move into the stretch.
I'm using him on my tickets primarily because he is fast, has run well at CD and it's very wide open after Fierceness. He's a lot more appealing at 19-1 to me than a horse like Sierra Leone, currently at 5-1.

Yes the odds are part of it. He was raced and worked in a crash course to fitness for 1 1/4 mile. That's primarily why I'm giving him a mulligan in the Ark Derby. I think after all the activity in that 2 month period he was due to regress. He's looking good in the mornings so hopefully he's ready to get back to his earlier form at a longer distance. Without those advantages he got in the Southwest he would have still had a Beyer in the high 90's. That puts him in exacta or trifecta in itself with this slow group of 3 year olds. A forward move possibly puts him with Fierceness....?

[groupie doll]

^ agree on the foundation and experience. If ~50% of the field is close, then why not take a chance with a better price that also has that experience. Just Steel is another I like, and he's an even better price than Dan. It's a reason why I am not enamored of Just a Touch. He's got upside for sure, but he's shorter odds than other horses who have faster figs and a lot more seasoning. Mage won last year with the similar profile, but completely different race scenario, entrants, etc. Mage also had significantly better late pace #s (one thing that I really value when analyzing for this race).

[groupie doll]

Thorpedo Anna looked great yesterday. I wonder what the over under is on McPeek taking both. :P

[Ruffian1]

This was one GREAT call Bisket.

Congratulations to you.

[MNslappy]

hope ya bet him to win man

[sovereign]

Gotta risk it to get the Bisket!