Race of the Day -- TRACK PHANTOM

[Track Phantom]

Best Bet Sheet, Aqueduct Sheet and Los Alamitos Sheet available at the link in the signature below

12/10/16 LRC R3 OPT CLM 50K, 5.5F DIRT (1:28)

7 WOOT WOOT 9-5
3 DEMIGODDESS 12-1
6 FEEL FREELY 5-2
1 START TO FINISH 8-1

PICK: 7 WOOT WOOT (9-5)
She validated a big maiden win with a big win in opt clm company in the 3rd start of her career. Nothing wrong with running second to American Gal, a Baffert filly, 3rd in the BC Juv Fillies in her next start. Only a 10k price so risking her for a tag is fine.

VALUE: 3 DEMIGODDESS (12-1)
Easy to fade a trainer who wins once in a blue moon but you can’t say this filly does not fit with these. She was just 3 behind Feel Freely three back with a strong late rally. Enough pace to set her late kick up.

A) 7
B) 1,3,6
C) 4,5

[Track Phantom]

Los Alamitos and Remington Park sheets for Sunday. Click link in signature.

12/11/16 LRC R3 CLM 6K, 5.5F DIRT (1:28)

4 EBONY CAT 7-2
3 TRUST UR INTUITION 2-1
5 STREET GODDESS 6-1
8 OLEANDERPOLARBEAR 20-1

PICK: 4 EBONY CAT (7-2)
She comes in with back to back wins. She beat similar runners here at 6-1 two back and was just hand-urged when beating an allw QH group in last. Regular rider back aboard here. Has the perfect running style for this race. Should get a perfect journey.

VALUE: 8 OLEANDERPOLARBEAR (20-1)
Ran behind the top choice at 24-1 in last start. She’s won twice here in 6 starts and beat the rail runner at 7-1 three back. She tends to outrun her odds and she’ll be a big price here. Decent exotics filler today.

A) 3,4
B) 5,8
C) 1,2,6,7

[Track Phantom]

12/15/16 LRC R1 CLM 8K, 5.5F DIRT (1:00)

3 AUDRA 4-1
1 MUDGE 5-2
2 TRIBELLA 4-1
4 HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA 6-1

PICK: 3 AUDRA (4-1)
Has the kind of backclass that would be tough in this spot. She was with a lower percentage outfit two back and claimed by a trainer who’s 8 for last 36 here. She got going bit late behind a slow middle pace in last. Blinkers on. Fast workout.

VALUE: 4 HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA (6-1)
She won here three back with Blanc up. Burned up on the pace 2 back. Her start was poor in last, never really got into it. Rates an exotics chance w/ a late move.

A) 1,3
B) 2,4,7
C) 6

[Track Phantom]

Full card analysis sheets for Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Los Alamitos for Saturday, 12/17/16 by clicking the link in the signature below

12/17/16
LOS AL RACE 1 CLM 6K, 5F DIRT (12:30)
7 ANYTIME MAGIC 4-1
8 SYNNIN 5-1
1 FOUR GAELS 12-1
2 DINNER AT TRANI’S 12-1

PICK: 7 ANYTIME MAGIC (4-1)
Notice Guce was aboard two back when he won and beat Four Gales as the even money favorite. Ran just ok first after a trainer move last out but that was a bit of a tougher group. He’s a 7x winner in 2016. Should carve out a perfect trip.

VALUE: 8 SYNNIN (5-1)
This trainer had success w/ this gelding earlier this year and he ended up taking him back 6 starts ago. All 3 sprints for the new connections been pretty good.

A) 1,2,7,8
B) 4,6,10
C) 3,5

[Track Phantom]

12/18/16 LRC R4 MDN CLM 20K, 1M DIRT (1:58)

5 JACKSON TELLER 6-1
2 SOLAR ZONE 7-2
12 TREMORS CODE 8-1
3 SIR MATADOR 12-1

PICK: 5 JACKSON TELLER (6-1)
First off, don’t think the maiden race Califor Silver, which a few of these are out of, was very good. It prompted me to look elsewhere in here. This one comes from the female tree that produced Shackleford. Winner in debut won back in allw. 2nd ran a good 3rd in MSW.

VALUE: 12 TREMORS CODE (8-1)
Really hasn’t run a bad race. Exits what is a strong race for the 20k level. The winner of that race, Silent Movies, was dropping from 62k claiming at Del Mar. Will have to figure out a trip from the wide post and not clear if he’d rather be on turf or synth. Price is right.

A) 2,5
B) 3,6,12
C) 1,10

[Track Phantom]

Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park sheets available for Wed, 12/21 at the link in the signature below

12/21/16 TP RACE 5 MDN CLM 5K, 6F DIRT (8:11 ET)

2 JIM’S FEVER 4-1
12 VINO SCURO 3-1
10 OAKENSHIELD 15-1
6 JORDY JACK SPLASH 7-2

PICK: 2 JIM’S FEVER (4-1)
This trainer doesn’t have a career win so far but did well with this gelding 3 and 4 starts back. Forget last on the turf and he was in tight and steadied two back. Picks up a good rider and draws well in two post. Think he’ll like this class drop.

VALUE: 10 OAKENSHIELD (15-1)
Really like his last two starts. He hit the gate in 2nd start and debut was a tough ask to go long on turf for a firster. Was closing well behind top choice last start.

A) 2,12
B) 5,6,10
C) 7,9

[Track Phantom]

GP and TP for Thr

7 MDN CLM 50K, 5F TURF (3:32)

9 IRISH FIX 3-1
1 SHOW ME MO 10-1
5 SIERRA LOVE 5-1
7 TIUNA 4-1

PICK: 9 IRISH FIX (3-1)
Was sitting on the flank of the front runner in the start two back before that leader went out to the middle of the track on the far turn and floated this filly to the outside fence. She was game for 3rd at 5-1 in her last start on the cutback in distance. Good post draw.

VALUE: 1 SHOW ME MO (10-1)
This trainer has won 3 of his last 4 going 5F on the turf here at GP in a maiden claiming race. This one took action in the debut but didn’t run a step. Inside post is hitting at a 28% clip in sprints on this turf. She’s just a 115k purchase so drop to 50k is acceptable.

A) 9
B) 1,5,7
C) 4,8

[Track Phantom]

TURFWAY PARK, GULFSTREAM PARK sheets available

12/23/16 TP RACE 4 CLM 7K, 6F DIRT (7:42)

4 VENETIAN 3-1
6 MERCER SLOUGH 2-1
5 BOGSIDE 4-1
3 TWO TIMER 10-1

PICK: 4 VENETIAN (3-1)
She was facing much tougher company at CD and ELP before facing a similar group here last out. She was checked up badly 1 furlong into the race, was shuffled back to last. She came on again to get beat just a half. She would have won with clean trip.

VALUE: 5 BOGSIDE (4-1)
She just broke her maiden last time out at BTP and the rider who has been up is back in this spot. Was in with similar caliber in those maiden claiming races. She will be up near the lead. Strictly underneath play.

A) 4
B) 6
C) 1,3,5

[Track Phantom]

Both Santa Anita and Golden Gate full card analysis sheets are available for Monday, 12/26/16 by clicking the link in the signature

12/26/16 SA RACE 3 MSW 54K, 7F DIRT (12:59)

4 LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN 8-1
10 FIRST DEGREE BURN 4-1
9 DABSTER 7-2
3 SEAU 8-1

PICK: 4 LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN (8-1)
He was in two very tough MSW races in his first two starts. The winner two back set the track record for 5F in that race. Came off a layoff, added blinkers for his last start. Was steadied after slow break. Gelded since that race. Dam is a half to G1 La Brea winner, I Ain’t Bluffing. Strong works coming in here.

VALUE: 3 SEAU (8-1)
He is a half to the 2010 Ky Dby winner Super Saver. In addition, his sibs include stakes winners, Brethren and Cyrus Alexander. His debut was great when 2nd at 6-1. Asked to get more ground in last two. Blinkers on and Rosario up. Hollendorfer will have big meet.

A) 4,9,10
B) 3,11
C) 2,5,6,8

[Track Phantom]

12/28/16 TP RACE 5 CLM 5K, 6.5F DIRT (8:11)

7 TACHI 30-1
10 SHOTENOUGH TO POP 9-2
11 BELLAMY’S VERDICT 6-1
4 FULL CLIP 10-1

PICK: 7 TACHI (30-1)
Split the field in last when facing a bit better company. The top 4 finishers in there were forwardly placed. This one had to try and close into that slow pace after a bobbled start. 6th two back won here at 9-2. Major upset very possible.

VALUE: 10 SHOTENOUGH TO POP (9-2)
Recent maiden winner at Belterra Park came in here at this level and won very well at 5-1. He stumbled at the start of that race and still drew off. That is the trainer’s lone win in ‘16. Right back at the same level. One to beat here today.

A) 7,10,11
B) 3,4
C) 1,2,5,9,12

[Track Phantom]

Aqueduct and Santa Anita full card analysis sheets available for Thursday at the link in the signature below

12/29/16 SA RACE 1 CLM 75K, 1M TURF (12:30)

3 MIDNIGHT SWINGER 2-1
6 PLASTERED 5-2
4 NINE POINT NINE 3-1
5 BACKDOOR COVER 8-1

PICK: 3 MIDNIGHT SWINGER (2-1)
76% of the mile turf races run here at the meet preceding this, were won by closers. This race is full of speed types but this filly will be sitting off the pace. She ran well in every start prior to last but the rail hurt her in that last start.

VALUE: 4 NINE POINT NINE (3-1)
She’s one of many in here with speed. She’s 3 for 7 in the exacta on the grass and her lone turf win came at this 1M distance. Winner of her last start came back to win the 75k K Crosby at 13-1. Will be all about kind of trip she gets.

A) 3 B) 4,6 C) 1,5

[Track Phantom]

12/30/16

SANTA ANITA R1 CLM 10K, 1M DIRT (12:30)

2 FRANDONTJUDGE 2-1
1 INDIVIDUAL DESIGN 10-1
3 PRIVATE TERRACE 6-1
5 SOONER TIME 5-2

PICK: 2 FRANDONTJUDGE (2-1)
Tough to swallow taking low odds first off a claim for a low percentage trainer and rider. But this trainer is 2 for 10 first off the claim when claiming from these high percentage trainers and 5 of the 10 won 1st or 2nd off claim. Excellent form. She’ll get a nice trip today. One to beat.

VALUE: 1 INDIVIDUAL DESIGN (10-1)
There’s a lot of speed in this race which could collapse if contested. This one is going to be saving ground and will look to make one run late. 5 wins at this 1M distance and 3 for 7 here at Santa Anita.

A) 1,2
B) 3,5
C) 4,7

[Track Phantom]

Both Santa Anita and Fairgrounds full card analysis sheets are ready for Saturday by clicking on the link in the signature below

12/31/16

SANTA ANITA R3 MIDNIGHT LUTE 100K, 6.5F (1:29)

3 ST. JOE BAY 9-5
1 TOUGH SUNDAY 7-2
5 JIMMY BOUNCER 5-2
4 NAVY HYMN 5-2

PICK: 3 ST. JOE BAY (9-5)
He cut back in distance in his last start and ran a career best when he just blew away 6 rivals. Miller has two in here and it’s likely this one will sit just off in the early going. Desormeaux has 2 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd in 4 trips aboard this one. Only bad run was in G2 on turf 2 back.

VALUE: 1 TOUGH SUNDAY (7-2)
Nice run in last when he ran and hid at LRC as the 7-5 choice. Was only ¾ back of the top choice three starts back. The winner of that race returned to win two stakes races. Saves ground from the rail

A) 1,3
B) 4,5
C) 2

[Track Phantom]

1/1/17

SANTA ANITA R1 MDN CLM 40K, 6.5F (1:29)

6 GUST 2-1
4 OUR CANDY CHARMS 4-1
3 SUMMERTIMEMISCHIEF 5-2
2 SHE HAS CHARMS 7-2

PICK: 6 GUST (2-1)
Connections campaigned her multiple G1 placed sprinter, Calculator. He only cost 50k so the move down to 40k here is acceptable. Miller has won with 9 of his last 15 off layoff of this kind (60%). Added blinkers in last and was closer to the speed. Gets ideal wide stalking trip.

VALUE: 4 OUR CANDY CHARMS (4-1)
Trainer a living legend but just doesn’t get the same horses. This one exits key race in last and comes in with a strong worktab. Connections show confidence entering for 40k. Will be flying on late.

A) 6 B) 2,3,4 C) 5

[Track Phantom]

1/2/17

SANTA ANITA R1 MSW 54K, 1M TURF (12:30)

7 MY PI ROMANCER 2-1
5 ASHLEY’S CHARMS 3-1
2 OCEAN DREAM 15-1
9 CHILEANNA 10-1

PICK: 7 MY PI ROMANCER (2-1)
She ran a big race first time on the turf in her last start. The winner was the fav in the race for Baltas and she ran 2nd in a 75k stakes by a head at 15-1 next out. This is a half to the G1 Kilroe Mile grass winner, Ring Weekend. Works are very strong. Clearly the main player in here.

VALUE: 2 OCEAN DREAM (15-1)
There are some excuses here. After she ran a good 3rd in the debut, likely either bled or didn’t want blinkers in the 2nd start. Steadied in that turf race. Faced tougher in last out. Don’t sell too short.

A) 7 B) 2,5 C) 1,3,9,10