Oaks/Derby double will pays

[wisconsin]

$1 double will pays 5w/


1. Dornoch $233.07
2. Sierra Leone $25.99
3. Mystik Dan $118.43
4. Catching Freedom $51.47
5. Catalytic $447.33
6. Just Steel $195.01
7. Honor Marie $92.47
8. Just a Touch $69.63
9. Encino (scratched)
10. T O Password $433.24
11. Forever Young $58.29
12. Track Phantom $324.95
13. West Saratoga $668.15
14. Endlessly $307.34
15. Domestic Product $136.63
16. Grand Mo the First $820.11
17. Fierceness $16.68
18. Stronghold $174.41
19. Resilience $163.45
20. Society Man $663.40
21. Epic Ride $629.79

[Aerocraft67]

Anybody care to convert that to an odds line? Or share the formula? I had a hard time looking it up last year.

[dballard125]

I did a $5 Double 5,13/17 so I'm alive but I need Fierceness to run big.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I did a $5 Double 5,13/17 so I'm alive but I need Fierceness to run big.

I have a $4 live double but would have been better off (for now) taking the win parlay. Thorpedo paid $11 for a $2 wager and Fierceness is currently at 3-1. That $11 would parlay into ~$44 at current odds versus the less than $34 for a $2 Double Will Pay. Perhaps the double will pay foreshadows some odds shrinkage on the Derby chalk, otherwise it's a wagering fail.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I have a $4 live double but would have been better off (for now) taking the win parlay. Thorpedo paid $11 for a $2 wager and Fierceness is currently at 3-1. That $11 would parlay into ~$44 at current odds versus the less than $34 for a $2 Double Will Pay. Perhaps the double will pay foreshadows some odds shrinkage on the Derby chalk, otherwise it's a wagering fail.

I didn't even take that into consideration but it's a great point.

Who ya like in the Derby? I've paid close attention to your Derby picks over the years, so I hope you're keying 2 and 17 like me lol.

[1st time lasix]

Alive to 17 for four units … The 4 and 8 for two units.

[wisconsin]

Personally alive to a hefty double with and a smaller version to the

I have equal amount saver doubles with , and all six runners will yield me a profit, but I I'll get well if either the or happen to roll home.

I don't usually play these, and when I have , I've never been alive after the Oaks, but I only used the winner and simply do not need to even bet the Derby.

Did not use , figured he's going to have to beat me, but I like my chances. Good luck everyone!

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Who ya like in the Derby? I've paid close attention to your Derby picks over the years, so I hope you're keying 2 and 17 like me lol.

Note: I was knocking myself when I mentioned the win parlay since my live double is a single. I'm very high on the . That horse fits just about every angle I look at plus it tops the speed figures and sheets. The fits fewer angles and I will play defensively, primarily only because there appears to be a ton of pace in this thing. It's not all cheap speed either. It's not gonna be so easy passing some of these like it was at Keeneland. But, if there's a closing type that's gonna win it, then he looks the most likely. TimeformUS race summary has him close at the wire. A Raise A Native exacta or even superfecta would be nothing new in this feature.

I used both in some future pool exactas that provides some backup to my Derby day plays. If both horses lose, then I basically need to hope something from the All Others in those pools is on top. I otherwise will not likely be cashing that race.

Undercard tip: Charlie Appleby doesn't miss too many exactas when he runs in North America. His horses are must use.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Note: I was knocking myself when I mentioned the win parlay since my live double is a single. I'm very high on the . That horse fits just about every angle I look at plus it tops the speed figures and sheets. The fits fewer angles and I will play defensively, primarily only because there appears to be a ton of pace in this thing. It's not all cheap speed either. It's not gonna be so easy passing some of these like it was at Keeneland. But, if there's a closing type that's gonna win it, then he looks the most likely. TimeformUS race summary has him close at the wire. A Raise A Native exacta or even superfecta would be nothing new in this feature.

I used both in some future pool exactas that provides some backup to my Derby day plays. If both horses lose, then I basically need to hope something from the All Others in those pools is on top. I otherwise will not likely be cashing that race.

Undercard tip: Charlie Appleby doesn't miss too many exactas when he runs in North America. His horses are must use.

We’re definitely aligned. Best of luck to you tomorrow buddy.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Anybody care to convert that to an odds line? Or share the formula? I had a hard time looking it up last year.

#17...28%...approx 9/5
#2....18%....3-1
#4....9%......7-1
#11...8%.....8-1
#8.....7%.....9-1
#7.....5%.....13-1
#3.....4%.....16-1

[Aerocraft67]

Even with the help of AI, I can't figure this out. Here's the return from Gemini after a dozen queries.

Question:

"Calculate implied odds from will pay amounts after the first race of the daily double has completed."

Answer:

"You're right, calculating implied odds for the second race in a daily double using just the "will pay" amounts from the first race isn't possible. Here's why:

Challenges with Implied Odds and Daily Doubles:

• Limited Data: Implied odds, while sometimes shown alongside "will pay" amounts, rely on the final pool distribution of a single race (the first race in this case). For a daily double, this doesn't provide enough information.
• Independent Pools: Daily double pools function independently. The money wagered on horses and the final payouts in the first race don't directly translate to the second race.

Implied odds aim to estimate odds based on the final pool distribution, but in a daily double context, this estimation isn't applicable across races."

Cute how it passive-aggressively says, "you're right," when I asked it ten times the contrary.

It goes on to suggest the following

1. Evaluate how the pool distribution for the second race changed during the first race.
2. Evaluating the outcome of the first race. Any upsets?
3. Handicap the second race. Can't argue with that.
4. "Optional," consider expert opinions.

So Gemini suggests listening to Nitro before actually handicapping the race or considering the wisdom of expert handicappers. I'm going to go back and spread the good news to all those hand-wringing threads about AI killing the game.