Mistakes you made as a newbie horse racing bettor?

[LemonSoupKid]

Great posts. I'm an advanced sports bettor who has played horses for a long time (which is funny because I'm not that old compared to what people think of horseplayers as a stereotype), mostly because I love the challenge and since most people either don't know handicapping or don't want to know, they like the excitement of the game and being with someone who can win. I could go on a long time talking about this kind of stuff, as I'm sure you all could, but I would also reiterate how important managing money and ticket creation is. Also understanding what tracks you are good at is like understanding what sports you are good at, not so good at, and so on.

Finally, the reality of "scared money don't make no money" is a fact, certainly over a long-ish term, and I've seen it time and again. I would appeal to a spin off of this reasoning that I always would talk about with novice sports bettors that you'll really arrive in a sport once you don't have a problem betting underdogs. If you think about it, that's a version of the scared money problem. It does take money to make money, in general, that's just a reality in life. Otherwise, you need time and discipline, which of course the average guy isn't any good at.

A recommendation for a newbie I would possibly start with, besides becoming aware of the basics of handicapping, race setup, and your betting location, would be to start trying to identify vulnerable favorites.

Since I'm a big horizontal player and have won mostly all the bets they've put out, Q and A sessions are usually better, since most of us who have been around for a while take a lot for granted regarding basic racing and gambling knowledge.

[Hoops McCann]

thinking it was easy after scoring a nice exacta the first time i ever played. after a while i discovered it's not so easy. to the point that i haven't place a bet in many years and have no intention of doing so in the future. losing my money doesn't give me any warm and fuzzies

[$w1fT]

Money management/not having to bet on every race.

Using favorites defensively in pick 4/5/6. Better off sitting the sequence out or playing doubles and p3 where you can press your opinion more.

[proximity]

really getting into this to the extent i did as a (dime a dozen) young and insecure contrarian. no amount of winners or winnings really was going to establish me as some special sage among family or friends and i really wasn't any better than the other railbirds because i knew the nickel at laurel had two hidden trips in a row while they were just betting trainers and jockeys from the program. what kind of a person was i becoming?

[CheckMark]

A few things as a newbie handicapper that I did and I'm sure some can probably relate:

1) Literally buying the "library" (or at least a lot) of systems/methods from Rpm Handicapping Giant until I went negative in my bank account. True story. I think at one point, I bought between 20-30 e-book systems in the month from them, and my dad found out (this was when I still had a joint account with my parents before I was around 18) that I overdrew/overdrafted my bank account.

Another time I did the same thing above, but I spent my $$$ around on Amazon and other websites buying their systems. I didn't go to -$0+, but it was pretty close. Learned my lesson to stick to a method and STICK WITH IT.

I still have all those systems today, but I don't even use most of them. I still do some, but the rest are just sitting on my hard drive on my laptop.

2) This leaves off from #1. I spent so long on finding a "winning" system with the products I purchased that I made myself sick. I wasn't in a good spot then, even though I didn't show it to anyone else. But later realized there are more things to get sick over than this content. So eventually, I just stopped looking and brought back the ones that were on a winning basis and stuck with those, and that is what I use to handicap today.

3) Buying too much handicapping info, you are overwhelmed with how to handicap using it all. I did that when I first started out handicapping after my method findings. I bought the DRF Brisnet and Timeform all at once, plus I bought some tip sheets like ProfitLine (later learned you can get it off of TS for free), Gapfire Contender$Win$, and a few others. Some of those products I don't use today. I use a mix of DRF/Timeform along with the stats from BRIS Ultimate race summary (sometimes the pp's) then I'll plug in my horses into Betmix and pick out the winners. I do use ProfitLine as well as Gapfire to see how my contenders "rank" vs theirs.

4) Playing stupid wagers when I could have focused on the wagers that mattered. I was a $5 Show, $1 Exacta 12/1234 and 20cent Super player for the longest time. I wasted a lot of money back then since half the time I would bet each race (yeah, I know the degenerate coming out in me!) without figuring out a) do I have an edge and b) does my bankroll still cover the other wagers if I lose this one. So now I mostly do $10 W/P on a Top Pick I like (need like 2-1+ to bet it), and then if there are only 3-4 contenders, I'll do a $1 Exacta 1-2/1-2-3-4. Sometimes I'll dip my feet in the Supers, where I have 4-5 contenders (chaos race!) and do Top 2/Top 3/Top 4/Top 5, but that is rare and usually played on the "bigger days" like the Derby or Breeders Cup.

5) Trying to figure out what TYPE of handicapper I was. I started out with being a Speed player only using the Speed figures. Then I was a pace guy using the E1/E2/Late and TimeForm figs. Then I was a Pace/Class guy. But now I'm pretty evened out with being a PSC guy who incorporates all of those factors into my handicapping along with some connections (trainer/jockey) and pedigree handicapping too.


5) This is kind of silly but using the wrong pens while handicapping. You are saying: Conley I didn't realize there was a WRONG pen to use. But yes there is. The ones I cannot handicap with are the ones that have 1/2 ink in them and quickly run out that way. For me to classify a "good/great" pen, I need the pen to have a full stick of ink or ink that is less than full but doesn't run out quickly.
2 great pens I have are BIC Round Stic (also a great pen for baseball signatures!) and Uni-Ball Signo micro 307 pens. The BIC ones last a long time write nice and are able to write the first time when you start pressing down. Same with the Uni-Ball pens but the ink looks like it will bleed through the page but it doesn't!


Sorry, I know that is a lot just those 5 things I did as a newbie handicapper and leaned my lessons throughout the years up till today.

[cj]

I haven't been a newbie since the mid 80s, but one thing I know now that I wish I knew then was all the timing problems that exist. As an early speed figure guy, I accepted the times as gospel and I'm sure back then the issues were probably much worse than now. And there are plenty now.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by cj

I haven't been a newbie since the mid 80s, but one thing I know now that I wish I knew then was all the timing problems that exist. As an early speed figure guy, I accepted the times as gospel and I'm sure back then the issues were probably much worse than now. And there are plenty now.

Great point. I bet that applies to most of us

[thaskalos]

The biggest mistake that I made as a newbie was believing the exaggerated claims that the "popular" handicapping authors were making in their books back in the day. Whether it was Tom Ainslie saying that a 25% profit in this game was "thin porridge"...or Dick Mitchell claiming that his "Platinum Strategies" would earn you a 40%+ ROI in the exotics...or William Scott writing that his mechanical handicapping system could be called "Social Security", etc...these were all outright lies, and I believed them since these handicapping authors appeared "authentic" because their work was highly endorsed by other 'respectable' handicapping authors. I wasn't aware of the "good-ole-boy network" back then.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The biggest mistake that I made as a newbie was believing the exaggerated claims that the "popular" handicapping authors were making in their books back in the day. Whether it was Tom Ainslie saying that a 25% profit in this game was "thin porridge"...or Dick Mitchell claiming that his "Platinum Strategies" would earn you a 40%+ ROI in the exotics...or William Scott writing that his mechanical handicapping system could be called "Social Security", etc...these were all outright lies, and I believed them since these handicapping authors appeared "authentic" because their work was highly endorsed by other 'respectable' handicapping authors. I wasn't aware of the "good-ole-boy network" back then.

imo dick mitchell is to horse racing what dave ramsey is to personal finance.

if you're a beginner whose handicapping/betting is all over the map he can maybe provide some structure like dave ramsey's baby steps can help someone with personal debt and out of control spending to begin to organize their finances.

his "drugged monkey" returns though i equate to dave ramsey's secret growth stock mutual fund that supposedly beats the s&p by so much.

for people like you, me, and probably many here at pace, we probably didn't fully believe the 1.75 trifecta roi or whatever but maybe this encouraged us that maybe 1.075 is possible?

and i was so mad at his wife for calling quinn a "loser" and not being convinced because quinn, cramer, quirin,.... all had phds so this had to be a worthwhile pursuit lol. of course we never heard her side of the story. maybe she didn't like the plan he made for their son to take up handicapping (with all in one or whatever!) instead of going to a "big ten" school?

[Robert Fischer]

all of them

from not fully understanding how the parimutuel system worked, to not knowing the takeout, to fallacies, biases, to problem/vice gambling, not understanding bankroll management, not understanding ticket structure, simple technical errors like 'mispunches', not having a process, not having a checklist, moral flaws, emotional and behavioral flaws, and certainly some other mistakes and mistake-types that don't spring to mind immediately.

Pretty much made all the mistakes, and many of them repeated recidivistically.

[Horsery]

I was wondering what happened to my paper wager. Surprise, surprise, I had placed the wager on my racing card, not on a paper wager and forgot. Just for fun, I checked my card and saw I had won $63 on a Longshot bet. I was pleasantly surprised.