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Old 07-20-2018, 01:31 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
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Thumbs up Saratoga&Del Mar 'Train-of Thought' welcome to play along&share your $0.02

Let's Go! #positivity #luck #learn #enjoy

1st race Saratoga coming up soon

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Old 07-20-2018, 01:56 PM   #2
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RACE 1

First thought is that the has become a colloquial 'wise-guy' horse. ML was a touch high, everybody fell in love with the 10/1 ML but they aren't getting 10/1 - he's as low as 4/1 while I type this and figures to go off perhaps 9/2-6/1 at post.
I'd prefer to exclude a negative value like this.

This distance/configuration is going to favor a horse who can break quickly without using a ton of horse and secure a forward inside position. Who fits that bill??
Nobody Move showed improved tactical/gate speed last time. Castellano is back and they've got nothing to lose here trying for a claim repeat share of $50k and $25 claim tag. Seems like a horse for course that everyone is trying to beat...

all figure to be close.

The is the most interesting. He's a danger to break to the lead.

Improved with the switch to Amoss/Moss. Figures to contend.

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Old 07-20-2018, 02:05 PM   #3
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Nobody Move was not a factor, but the carried his weight with a good trip behind cheap speed 3.

Ran 'ok' to get third. Overlooked Turco Bravo closed inside for 2nd.


I just did a win dutch in that race, so was happy to have the 6 @ $13+change. That was the value as he was almost as big a price as the #1 underlay , and Turco Bravo who seemed outclassed.
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Old 07-20-2018, 02:25 PM   #4
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2nd race

Not crazy about this race. Also getting some distractions / phone-calls


I don't like the . I feel that's an 'obvious' trap for a mediocre contender.

Suppose there is value elsewhere, but I don't have the play in mind.
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Old 07-20-2018, 02:33 PM   #5
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small dd vs 1 (245910 w/ 268) and emphasized for the chalk amongst thoses
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Old 07-20-2018, 02:40 PM   #6
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Got through the 1st half of the Double , but very chalky.

Was right about the being a 'trap'.

Hindsight = I wish I had played the exacta, but wasn't happy with my depth of opinion, so I stuck to picking the winners.
#2 in race3 = small profit, #6 or #8 moderate profit.
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:05 PM   #7
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r3

First thought is that the Sicilia Mike is a decent sized underlay. Cool name. He's mildly dangerous to suck-up and trip into 2nd or 3rd...

Come on Cat - Brave effort in an electric pace last time. He was actually well handled by Pennington, it wasn't a MONSTER effort but was solid. Unfortunately he's taking money. I'd want him to be 7/1 and S.Mike 7/2 in a dream 'green-light' scenario...


are ultra-obvious takeout pits. No value here. Either could dominate. Both have '?'s.

is the temptation. That last race was better than it looked. The 5 in that race was supposed to clobber them, but the pace never really allowed a breather and a closer nailed that 5 in the stretch.


So I'm looking top/bottom for value. considerations, but to be honest they ain't paying me the kind of money I want for 'reaching' for a value number @ 'TOGA.
If 8 scores, I get the generous double multiple times, and I'm not in love with the 3.

--------------

Ok , NEXT thought (choo choo #thought train)
Who does the Come on Pussy Cat 'HURT' the most? or ??
Answer? = He hurts the the most. Wants to cruise near, not duel a philly cheese steak.... The tried to close into a slow pace last time, so this looks to be a value boost (tough to boost chalk). Also helps the sucker-bet Sicilian Michael. If he was 10/1 where he should be, I'd consider under a tri or exacta...

Considering a 50cent backdoor tri / / (late closing 3rd from the turtles??)

nah...

Im going WILD HERE (and I wish some of you guys would chime in with some thoughts/opinions/picks/etc...)
Going to throw $2 to SHOW on my for a trip bet , maybe he gets set up by the 3?
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:13 PM   #8
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appeared to 'miss the thought train' there. #3 did in fact do some dirty work before heading toward the 'caboose.'
Logic seemed good, but was 'off track', as the #2 did just fine behind the cheap speed.

$2 to show ticket was 'derailed'

out of bad puns, but the chalky 2 saved my emphasized double in a 'blanket' finish...
Overlooked #1 spiced up the tickets for those who like to do the old Chalk/chaos/chaos play in these top meet's cheaper races
Wow nevermind that= it was a really Light payout! Everybody must have gone that route.
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:32 PM   #9
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r4 Guessing game / 2nd chance for MCLM turfers ...

My thought here is to make a run to the store to pick up a few items for seafood linguine dinner.

Will sink my teeth back into the card when returned / settled.

I hope some of you guys chime in , perhaps carry the thread with some picks
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:20 PM   #10
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There's too many del Mar races I like tomorrow, gotta take it easy today. So haven't any PPs. But enjoying the thought train as I watch the races.

Just looking at the free TFUS for R9, there's no real pace/pace setter. Best value seems to be the , a 30-1 long shot who's not run in such tough company yet But I like the or for the win. Of the closers I like

is a contender but still vulnerable fave, looks like short odds due to Chad Brown as trainer. 3-1 nah.

Very tempting to try to construct a tri or cheap super and squeeze value out of this.
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:14 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication View Post
There's too many del Mar races I like tomorrow, gotta take it easy today. So haven't any PPs. But enjoying the thought train as I watch the races.

Just looking at the free TFUS for R9, there's no real pace/pace setter. Best value seems to be the , a 30-1 long shot who's not run in such tough company yet But I like the or for the win. Of the closers I like

is a contender but still vulnerable fave, looks like short odds due to Chad Brown as trainer. 3-1 nah.

Very tempting to try to construct a tri or cheap super and squeeze value out of this.
I will check him out. Big price and Matz has occasionally long shots like that.



7th race = Supposed to be against the wide , and with the Rail/Chad Brown, but EVERYONE is going that direction, and there's no value in that...

If I'm tossing , I'm tossing also = in addition to wide-draw he also was close to that soft pace.
I do like the out of that same race as the 10.

I can't bet at these prices for the obvious Chad Brown in here.

Pass and looking at the 8th, 9th...
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:27 PM   #12
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So much for the post position bias...

looked like held on
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:46 PM   #13
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Looking forward to see if Casse's Cathereinethegreat with J Ortiz pulls through as the favourite. Drives me nuts to see a dominant up in the Canadian stakes races but down in the USA I want to see him win! Might throw down a working class dollar if the odds aren't too short at post.
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:48 PM   #14
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Remainder of Saratoga picks. Had a few pricy winners today so feel good for tomorrow.

8:

9:

10:

Best of luck to all!
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Old 07-20-2018, 06:01 PM   #15
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r8

2 - looks electric

8 is a good price

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