2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting some pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There will 8 races at Happy Valley ALL on the Turf: (from top to bottom) -
(3)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (2)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for all these races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but these selections generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T……,,.…5-4-6 W/ 7-2-1 …..….6:15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T,,….7-5-3 W/ 10-2-1 …..…6:45 AM EST –

R#3 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…….,...1-3-2 W/ 4-5 ..........7:15 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T….…,...5-6-1 W/ 2-7-9 …....7:45 AM EST –

R#5 - 2200M C4 (11F)T…,……2-8-4 W/ 9-7-1 ….....8:15 AM EST –

R#6 - 1200M C4 (6F)T………..4-2-8 W/ 5-3-7 …...…8:45 AM EST –

R#7 – 1000M C3 (5F)T………..1-3-8 W/ 9-5-2 .......9:15 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……....9-3-1 W/ 2-11-6 ……9:50 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1200M C5 (6F)T…….…5-4-6 W/ 7-2-1 ….….6:15 AM EST –

4-1-6-5 – Dutch Win 42% Profit Margin-Passed / $32.40 Quin & $161.40 Tri / All of that one!

R#2 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T….7-5-3 W/ 10-2-1 …..…6:45 AM EST –

5-10-7-8 – Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin / $41.20 Quin & $211.80 Tri

R#3 - 1800M C3 (9F)T……....1-3-2 W/ 4-5 ..........7:15 AM EST -

9-5-7-6 – Dutch Loss 103% Profit Margin /

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T….…...5-6-1 W/ 2-7-9 …....7:45 AM EST –

1-3-8-6 – Dutch Win 83% Profit Margin / / $47.00 Quin

R#5 - 2200M C4 (11F)T………2-8-9 W/ 4-7-1 …....8:15 AM EST –

8-9-2-7 – Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin / $72.80 Quin & $487.20 Tri / All of that one!

R#6 - 1200M C4 (6F)T………..4-2-12 W/ 5-3-7 - #8 dropped & #12 in w/heavy betting ……8:45 AM EST –

9-4-12-1 – Dutch Loss 37% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#7 – 1000M C3 (5F)T………..1-3-8 W/ 9-5-2 ......9:15 AM EST –

9-7-8-1 – Dutch Loss 31% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……....9-3-1 W/ 2-11-6 ……9:50 AM EST –

1-9-6-3 – Dutch Win 75% Profit Margin / $26.80 Quin & $379.00 Tri / All of that one!

It was another fun and profitable card.
My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 42% and came from hitting 4 of 5 playable races.
There were quite a few decent Verticals as well.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 2, 2018… 25th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 76 Degrees Sunny 10% of Rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph

Post time: 12pm ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C” & AWT, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181202_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 Bring It On (4-1): Just missed out in his last by a head but that was on the turf and now he’s trying the dirt for the first time and drew a tough field for a one time winner out of 30 races to do so.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 099 (Winners: 2nd & 12th, Second: 11th)
Race 9 Ugly Warrior (4-5)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Good Fit (9-1)
Race 7 Golden Effort (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 9 Ugly Warrior (4-5)
Race 10 Home Run (10-1)


Horses for courses running today:
Race 6 Refined Treasure (8-5)
Race 9 Ugly Warrior (4-5)
Race 9 Pick Number One (11-1)
Race 10 Relentless Me (11-1)

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
None

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 5 Gracious Ryder (14-1)


Key Plays:
Race 10 Diamond Rhyme (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 Gracious Ryder (14-1)
Race 9 Gunnison (16-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 3 on Turf & 7 on Dirt: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)D……..….. 7-3-8 W/ 6-2-1 ….…...12:00 AM EST –

R#2 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….… 1-2-5 W/ 8-6-10 …….…12:30 AM EST –

R#3 – 18000M C4 (9F)D…..…… 1-3-8 W/ 2-5-4 ..........1:00 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C5 (6F)D……..….. 6-7-4 W/ 2-12-8 ….....1:30 AM EST –

R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)D.……….… 7-1-10 W/ 5-2-12 ….....2:00 AM EST –

R#6 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……...... 1-3-2 W/ 7-8-9 …….......2:35 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)D…….….. 10-8-2 W/ 1-6-5 .........3:05 AM EST –

R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D...… 2-7-1 W/ 3-4-6 ……......…3:35 AM EST –

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)D.……..…. 3-5-10 W/ 1-7-12 ….….4:10 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T......... 7-11-12 W/ 1-3-10 ….….4:45 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)D……..….. 7-3-8 W/ 6-2-1 ….…...12:00 AM EST –

3-6-8-5– Dutch Win 64% Margin – $37.10 Quinella & $220.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……….… 1-2-5 W/ 8-6-10 …….…12:30 AM EST –

1-5-2-11– Dutch Win 18% Margin - Passed – $9.10 Quinella & $66.00 Triple / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

R#3 – 18000M C4 (9F)D…..…… 1-3-8 W/ 2-5-4 - #2 switched w/#8 for solid late action & becoming favored – 1-3-2 W/ 8-5-4 .......1:00 AM EST -

2-1-4-9– Big Dutch Win 82% Margin – $25.30 Quinella & $166.00 Triple / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M C5 (6F)D……..….. 6-7-4 W/ 2-12-8 ….....1:30 AM EST –

6-11-8-4– Big Dutch Win 83% Margin -

[coachv30]

How are you structuring your wagers? Are these KEY'S? KEY Boxes?

If you play 1,2,3 w/ 4,5,6 and it comes out 1-3-6 you would lose.

[jay68802]

Morning Nitro..


Race #5: /

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by coachv30

How are you structuring your wagers? Are these KEY'S? KEY Boxes?

If you play 1,2,3 w/ 4,5,6 and it comes out 1-3-6 you would lose.

Good morning Guys! I've explained my betting strategies many times before. My primary bets involve Dutching the Top 3 selections when the combined odds provide a 50% or better profit margin.
If I play Quin or Tri I'll use my Top Keys on top with the others.
Quinellas are much easier to structure and much more cost effective even when boxing when the odds are right.
GL this morning!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)D.……….… 7-1-10 W/ 5-2-12 ….....2:00 AM EST –

1-5-3-10– Dutch Win 34% Margin - Passed – $15.20 Quinella

[jay68802]

Think the is a interesting horse here, in Race #6.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……..….. 1-3-2 W/ 7-8-9 ……..2:35 AM EST – .

10-1-7-11– Dutch Loss 44% Margin - Passed – Lots of late action on at least 5 entries including the Winner!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Think the is a interesting horse here, in Race #6.

Another 1 of the 5 that got hit hard late.