2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T….1-2-3 W/ 12-7-10 ….6:15 AM
(May sub #12, #10 or #7 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

1-3-4-8– Dutch Win 29% Margin-Passed/ $11.00 Quinella

R#2- 1800M C4 (9F)T…..…5-10-2 W/ 1-4-3 …..…6:45 AM
(May sub #1, or #4 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

9-2-5-3/10– Dutch Loss 55% Margin/

R#3– 1000M C4 (5F)T….….5-12-8 W/ 11-7-6 …...7:15 AM
(May sub #11, or #7 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

5-11-8-12– BIG Dutch Win 137% Margin / $16.40 Quinella & $563.80 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....6-2-4 W/ 1-8-10 ……..7:45 AM

6-10-2-9– Dutch Win 44% Margin-Passed / $21.60 Quinella & $128.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….9-5-11 W/ 4-1-12 / #5 as betting Fav moved into top 3 & #12 dropped …..…8:15 AM
(May sub #1, #5 or #4 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

5-4-2-1– Dutch Win 58% Margin/ $34.00 Quinella

R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...4-7-5 W/ 9-3-10 / With heavy support #5 sub for #10 ……..8:45 AM
(May sub #5, #9 or #3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

3-7-2-4– Dutch Loss 10% Margin-Passed/ $35.20 Quinella

R#7– 1650M C3 (8.25F)T...9-1-4 W/ 5-6-3 .......9:15 AM
(May sub #5, #6 or #3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

4-1-12-11– Dutch Win 39% Margin-Passed/ $13.60 Quinella

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...4-6-2 W/ 3-12-1 …...…9:50 AM
(May sub #3, #12 or #1 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

1-2-12-6– Dutch Win 45% Margin-Passed / $74.60 Quinella & $921.20 Triple / ALL of that one!

It was another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 41% and was hit from the first 2 of 3 only playable races. Also hit (but passed) were 4 other Dutch Win bets due to the low profit margins. There were a few nice Vertical scores particularly in the last race.
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[Hypnotist1]

NITRO,

HOW DO YOU COUNT 1 HORSE AS DUTCH WIN WHEN HE IS YOUR 6TH PICK?

HYPNOTIST1

[formula_2002]

NITRO, HELP ME OUT HERE. YOU CLAIM A 44% POSITIVE RETURN.
BASED ON THE FINAL $1 ODDS (NOT THE $1 RETURN), I CALCULATE A 14% LOSS. HOW DID YOU GET 44% . THANKS

Quote:
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....6-2-4 W/ 1-8-10 ……..7:45 AM  

6-10-2-9– Dutch Win 44% Margin-Passed / $21.60 Quinella & $128.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

SEE MY ATTACHHMENT

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

NITRO,

HOW DO YOU COUNT 1 HORSE AS DUTCH WIN WHEN HE IS YOUR 6TH PICK?

HYPNOTIST1

I assume you’re referring to race #5. Obviously, you’re not reading my repeated introductory comments (below) that I repeat each time I post early selections:

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

Either that or you’re not following the tote board activities in real time or not seeing my posted explanation. If that’s not good enough for you than I’m sorry for any misconception on my part. BTW I don’t “count”, I play and this particular race called for an obvious adjustment between the 2 entries involved!

Early-R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….9-12-11 W/ 4-1-5…..…8:15 AM
( (May sub #1, #5 or #4 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

Final - R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….9-5-11 W/ 4-1-12 / #5 as betting Fav moved into top 3 & #12 dropped …..…8:15 AM

5-4-2-1– Dutch Win 58% Margin/ $34.00 Quinella

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

NITRO, HELP ME OUT HERE. YOU CLAIM A 44% POSITIVE RETURN.
BASED ON THE FINAL $1 ODDS (NOT THE $1 RETURN), I CALCULATE A 14% LOSS. HOW DID YOU GET 44% . THANKS

Quote:
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....6-2-4 W/ 1-8-10 ……..7:45 AM  

6-10-2-9– Dutch Win 44% Margin-Passed / $21.60 Quinella & $128.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

SEE MY ATTACHHMENT

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....6-2-4 W/ 1-8-10 ……..7:45 AM

6-10-2-9– Dutch Win 44% Margin-Passed / $21.60 Quinella & $128.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #4 – At Post Time Odds (Adjusted for US$).
With #6 @ 1.5/1 - #2 @ 4.5/1 & #4 @ 7.7/1

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	1.5	4.5	7.7	BET	PRF	 
 	$5	$11	$17	 	 	 
 	$35	$16	$10	$61	$27	43%
 	$88	$88	$87	 	 	 

My actual Dutch Calculation at about 4 minutes to post provided a 44% Profit margin. Either way it was an obvious pass.
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[formula_2002]

Thanks Nitro. you are correct. I made two errors.
You seem to be doing very well.
continued success

[Hypnotist1]

NITRO

HOW DO YOU COUNT THE 1 AS A WIN IN RACE 8 AS HE IS YOUR 6TH PICK

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

NITRO

HOW DO YOU COUNT THE 1 AS A WIN IN RACE 8 AS HE IS YOUR 6TH PICK

Early post =R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...4-6-2 W/ 3-12-1 …...…9:50 AM
(May sub #3, #12 or #1 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

Result post=1-2-12-6– Dutch Win 45% Margin-Passed / $74.60 Quinella & $921.20 Triple / ALL of that one!

This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #8 – At Post Time Odds (Adjusted for US$).
With #4 @ 21/1 - #6 @ 2.1/1 & #2 @ 2.1/1

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	2.1	2.1	21.0	BET	PRF	 
 	$6	$6	$44	 	 	 
 	$44	$44	$6	$94	$42	45%
 	$136	$136	$136	 	 	 

My error was posting that it was a “Dutch Win”. In fact, it was a Dutch Loss that either way was an OBVIOUS PASS. It certainly wasn’t “counted” as one of the Dutch Wins that were played.

Thanks for picking up on that typo. That sort of scrutiny goes a long way to validate my approach for playing HK. Maybe someday you’ll offer some insight as to how you play the game.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. March 2, 2019 50th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees partly cloudy 40% of rain Wind: ESE 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C” and AWT, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190302_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 9 Waikuku (7-5) Moreira had to really get to his bottom in his last and now draws the 12 gate and the addition of 4 more pounds, playing that he flattens out in the stretch this time out.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 183 (Winners: 1st & 8th, Second: 5th)
Race 6 Mcmunigal (45-1)

Race 356 (Winners: 6th & 12th, Second: 2nd, 3rd, 8th & 14th)
Race 8 Kasi Farasi (5-2)

Race 393 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, Second: 1st)
Race 9 Gorgeous King (21-1)
Race 9 Mongolian King (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 6 Goldie Flanker (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Iron King (6-1)
Race 3 Hurricane Hunter (5-1)
Race 5 Prince Of Gems (6-5)
Race 9 Waikuku (7-5)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 9 Waikuku (7-5)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 9 Gorgeous King (21-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 7 Thrilled (2-1) In his first try in Hong Kong after winning three and four seconds out of eleven tries in his homeland of Australia, was bet down to 2-1 second choice to Prince Dragon. He broke on top and went straight to the front without any urging from Purton, just before he reached the turn he was engaged by Eighty Eighty. At the 350 metre mark he looked like he had enough in reserve to hold off any challengers, but by the time he reached a hundred metres to go you could see the break from last May was starting to take its effect. He should improve off that effort and with him only picking up one rating point for a total of 74 will allow him to run back in Class 3.

Race 8 Better Choice (8-1) Was a stand in entry after being scratched on New Year's Day and being placed on the Vet's list. Was bumped around slightly at the break, settled in at the rear while racing closest to the rail, he chased eventual winner Tornado Twist into the stretch. He was held up for a while looking for running room which became available at the 125 mark and really took the bit and was reaching extremely well at the wire.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 3 Ezra (6-1)
Race 3 Hurricane Hunter (5-1)
Race 5 Happy Alumni (6-1)


Key Plays:
Race 7 Thrilled (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 Yichun Blitz (12-1)
Race 9 Mongolian King (10-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf & 2 on Dirt:
(Classes from top to bottom) – (1)-Class-2, (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT EST

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T….4-8-3 W/ 2-10-13 ……12:00 AM EST
(May sub #2, #10 or #13 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)D….1-7-11 W/ 5-9-12...12:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, or #9 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.….2-6-1 W/ 7-9-5 …...1:00 AM EST
(May sub #7, or #9 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…..7-5-1 W/ 11-14-3 …..1:30 AM EST
(May sub #11, #14, or #3 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…..1-5-8 W/ 3-10-4 …...2:00 AM EST
(May sub #3, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)D…..3-10-4 W/ 5-8-7 …...2:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, #8, or #7 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7- 1200M C3 (6F)T…...3-10-5 W/ 11-1-8 …..3:05 AM EST
(May sub #11, #1, or #8 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T…..14-12-2 W/ 10-1-8 …..3:35 AM EST
(May sub #10, #1, or #8 into top 3 & #7 or #9 bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#9- 1800M C2 (9F)T……7-12-1 W/ 3-5-9 …...4:10 AM EST
(May sub #3, #5, or #9 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....1-8-5 W/ 2-6-11 …....4:45 AM EST
(May sub #2, #6, or #11 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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[Nitro]

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T….4-8-3 W/ 2-10-13 ……12:00 AM EST
(May sub #2, #10 or #13 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

5-9-13-4– Dutch Loss 30% Profit Margin-Passed/ Not much action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

UPDATE-R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)D….1-7-11 W/ 5-9-2...12:30 AM EST

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE-R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)D….1-7-11 W/ 5-9-2...12:30 AM EST

9-11-3-10– Dutch Loss 60% Profit Margin / BIG $160.30 Quinella – Winner took some very late action

[jay68802]

Morning Nitro.

Race #3:

Like the and here, play with the .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlc6xCPx60U

[jay68802]

And maybe a junk bet on the , NITRO EXPRESS. GL.