Dutching Win Bets

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

No one here is sure how you compute 'profit margin' but anything approaching that figure would make you the richest man in the world . Are you ?

The second part makes no sense at all. Really.
[COLOR=Red]'we stop betting because we are winning so much its making me nervous'

No one here? Now you’re suddenly speaking for everyone on PA?

Any dimwit with a Dutching calculator knows how to compute a Profit Margin based on the odds of the selected entries.

I’m not there yet, but because of my involvement with some new (seriously minded) associates we all plan on improving our financial situations.

The second part is really very simple.
It’s called Custom Conditional wagering. Based on records of hundreds of previous races it narrows down the playing field so to speak.
The idea in case you missed (again) is a means to gain an advantage and create a comfort betting zone. Once you’re in in it the only thing left is how much you’re willing put up.

BTW, Just a side note as to why this Dutching technique works so well at the races in Hong Kong:
The betting pools are so large that they deviate very little from 4mins to post time.

[AltonKelsey]

Sadly, you failed to respond to the matter of why would anyone arbitrarily stop betting during the day, especially while WINNING . This is generally considered ridiculous.


And I've watched the pool in Hong Kong, and you can get some very dramatic late moves. So the notion of the large pools is faulty. Large pools , mean large late money.



Next ?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Sadly, you failed to respond to the matter of why would anyone arbitrarily stop betting during the day, especially while WINNING . This is generally considered ridiculous.


And I've watched the pool in Hong Kong, and you can get some very dramatic late moves. So the notion of the large pools is faulty. Large pools , mean large late money.

Next ?

I see you've included a picture of me holding YOU! Ahhhh! How cute is that! But why aren't you smiling?

If you understood the English language at all you'd immediately recognize that my systematic method of stopping at a specific point is anything but an arbitrary move. If I know my limits a far as a hit frequency goes why would push the envelope? There's always another race card! Besides if you really think that just because your on a win streak that it will automatically continue you're only kidding yourself! Keep Dreaming!
That's why guys like you are losers: You don't know when to fold!

Once again your so called "watching" of Hong Kong money flow is as far as I'm concerned is very amateurish at best. Your "dramatic late moves" are certainly not the norm. Large pools actually means that even late moves are readily absorbed. Your so-called "watching" seems to ignore the fact that they're always betting on more than just a single entry during every minute of the betting cycle.

[AltonKelsey]

Very funny, I like the comeback.


Sadly, once again, your response to serious questions falls way way short of acceptable.



I think fellow pa readers will agree its absurd to stop playing after X winners, then come back the next day . I guess you feel your luck has run out and don't want to press it. I wonder if the pro bot teams do that?




Anyone watching thet HK pools knows there are many many betdowns late. Probably not quite as many as the USA pools, as we tend to start with very small amounts bet, and that distorts the opening flashes.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Okay fellas here’s one you might want to think about.
I’ve been making 3-entry Dutch Win bets at Hong Kong for many years now with much success.

I’ve been hitting at a comfortable average of 63% at the Happy Valley racecourse.
My average Profit Margin there over the last 3 seasons 47%.

However, there are also 2 restrictions for making a play.
1) A play (or not) is based on the combined odds of the 3 selected entries that must produce a 50% or higher Profit margin @ 4mins to post.

2) If 50% of the races on the program have already been hit at some point, than the remaining races become a “No play”.
Ex: If 5 races have been hit over the last 6 races, the remaining races become a pass.

So even though I’m hitting at a greater than 50% frequency rate the cushion used I believe makes the entire scheme more comfortable especially when making larger bets.

For more anticipated accuracy, I also maintain a separate record of how well this all performs based on the race Distances, Surfaces, and Class of horses that run from Sept to July at each race meeting.
.
It's all about keeping good records!

As a tote board technician, why would you need these statistics? I could see money being handled differently by the "who's who" in the classier races, but do you have to look for different money moves when the race is 6f rather than 1 mile? Are there different betting patterns in a MSW going a mile on the turf than a MSW going 6 on the dirt?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

As a tote board technician, why would you need these statistics? I could see money being handled differently by the "who's who" in the classier races, but do you have to look for different money moves when the race is 6f rather than 1 mile? Are there different betting patterns in a MSW going a mile on the turf than a MSW going 6 on the dirt?

Let’s be honest. No system, tote or otherwise is perfect. As I’ve previously mentioned the tote analysis I use provides me a with an overall specific and recorded hit frequency % for all types of races combined when playing a 3-entry Dutch Win bet. My preferred Profit margin of 50% or higher is the chosen platform for making a play or not. This Profit Margin percentage is lower than my actual hit frequency because I chose to create a positive cushion for playing.

So with a less than 100% hit frequency, the purpose of monitoring and recording the success and failure of the tote analysis when Dutching this way is really nothing more than creating a report card. The race conditions are itemized by the 2 tracks, Grass or Dirt racing Surfaces, 7 racing Classes and 9 racing Distances. I maintain this report card in order to evaluate the actual win frequency for each combination of these conditions.

Okay, so other than recognizing and accepting the other conditional wagering limitations (previously mentioned) this itemized report card just provides another means of suggesting a pre-race strategy and the validity for play.

Here’s a typical 10 race card example for Sha Tin:
R#1 – 1400M (7f) – Turf – Class 5 – Win Frequency 35%
R#2 – 1200M (6f) – Turf – Class 4 – Win Frequency 58%
R#3 – 1000M (5f) – Turf – Class 4 - Win Frequency 67%
R#4 - 1200M (6f) – Dirt – Class 5 – Win Frequency 32%
R#5 - 1600M (8f) – Turf – Class 3 – Win Frequency 72%
R#6 - 1800M (9f) – Turf – Class 4 – Win Frequency 48%
R#7 - 1200M (6f) – Turf – Class 3 – Win Frequency 60%
R#8 - 1400M (7f) – Turf – Class 2 – Win Frequency 42%
R#9 - 2000M (10f) – Turf – Class 1 – Win Frequency 80%
R#10 -1200M (6f) – Turf – Class 2 – Win Frequency 65%

So before the betting even begins I’ve got a pretty good idea of where I stand with any particular race card. As the play progresses from race to race and based on the success of the current hit frequency when compared to the recorded hit frequency % of a future race, this listing can very often suggest a positive betting strategy and possibly a good opportunity for success.

[AltonKelsey]

I like how you give the win % but not the avg $ return


Clever