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Old 11-11-2018, 05:18 PM   #1
Buckeye
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DMR Late Pick 4

$16.50 PK4 ABC 7,2,4/4,5,6/2,3,8/1,9,2

The 'A' horses are 7,4,8, and 2 respectively.

This means that if any two of the 'A' horses win, and I hit my backups in the other races, I win.

Instead of a $40.50 cent bet I made this $16.50 cent bet.

Last edited by Buckeye; 11-11-2018 at 05:21 PM.
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Old 11-15-2018, 03:40 PM   #2
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11/15/18

$24 PK4 ABC 2,4,6,9/7,1,5/7,2,5,8/2,1,8

The 'A' horses are marked in red.

If any two (or more) of the 'A' horses win, and I hit any of the backups in the other races, I win.

Instead of a $72 bet I made this $24 bet.
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Old 11-15-2018, 03:51 PM   #3
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Please note, there 11 separate tickets involved here . . .

0.50 PK4 2/7/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/1,5/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/2,5,8/1,8
Cancel
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Old 11-15-2018, 05:51 PM   #4
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That wasn't good.

Bad handicapping hurts every time.

But since I have money to burn, I'll make an ABC bet on the last three races in an attempt to get my money back.

$12 PK3 ABC 7,1,5/7,2,5,8/2,1,8

In this case, only 1 'A' is necessary.

$12 bet vs. $18 bet.
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Old 11-15-2018, 05:54 PM   #5
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7 Separate Tickets:

0.50 PK3 7/7/2
Cancel

0.50 PK3 1,5/7/2
Cancel

0.50 PK3 7/2,5,8/2
Cancel

0.50 PK3 7/7/1,8
Cancel

0.50 PK3 1,5/2,5,8/2
Cancel

0.50 PK3 1,5/7/1,8
Cancel

0.50 PK3 7/2,5,8/1,8
Cancel
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Old 11-15-2018, 06:07 PM   #6
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At least I'm "alive" but no 'A' yet.

Last edited by Buckeye; 11-15-2018 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 11-15-2018, 06:43 PM   #7
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The 6 wins Race 7.

Bad handicapping almost always leads to poor results.

Should have gone back one or two races on the 6
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:59 PM   #8
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11/16/18

I actually "handicapped" these races.

$16.50 PK4 ABC 4,6,8/4,6,9/7,4,6/1,3,5

11 separate tickets:

0.50 PK4 4/4/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/6,9/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/4,6/3,5
Cancel

That's 33 combinations vs. 81.

Remember, 2A's must win.
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Old 11-17-2018, 12:57 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
$16.50 PK4 ABC 7,2,4/4,5,6/2,3,8/1,9,2

The 'A' horses are 7,4,8, and 2 respectively.

This means that if any two of the 'A' horses win, and I hit my backups in the other races, I win.

Instead of a $40.50 cent bet I made this $16.50 cent bet.
Just wondering how you come up with $16.50 if you bet every possible combination in which 2 "A" horses are singled. As I see it, there would be a total of 6 combinations, each costing $4.50, for a total of $27.

7 / 4 / 2,3,8 / 1,9,2
7 / 4,5,6 / 8 / 1,9,2
7 / 4,5,6 / 2,3,8 / 2
7,2,4 / 4 / 8 / 1,9,2
7,2,4 / 4 / 2,3,8 / 2
7,2,4 / 4,5,6 / 8 / 2

Alternatively, you could bet only the backups on the non-key legs, in which case you would have a total of 24 combinations (4 per ticket), for a total cost of $12.

I'm just curious as to how you arrived at $16.50.
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Old 11-17-2018, 03:49 PM   #10
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11/17/18

$17.50 PK4 ABC 6,3,4,7/8,1,5,7/3,5,6/6,1,3

Looks like we have 13 separate tickets here.

0.50 PK4 6/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/1,5/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/5,6/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 7/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/7/3/6

The 'A' horses are green and the 'C' horses are red.

35 combinations instead of 144.
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Old 11-17-2018, 04:11 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillC View Post
I'm just curious as to how you arrived at $16.50.
Please see the bet structure above and count up the combinations.

Yesterday, there were 33 vs. 3 X 3 X 3 X 3 which equals 81.

33 X fifty cents = $16.50
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Old 11-18-2018, 05:04 PM   #12
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11/18/18

These Pick 4's are not easy!

Consider this, given a 50% chance of hitting one race with multiple selections, raise that by a power of 4 and you get 6 and 1/4th percent chance of success . . .

Nevertheless,

$28.50 PK4 ABC 4,1,8/4,6-8/2-4,5/1,3,7,5

Any 2 of the green horses must win and hit somebody listed in the other 2.

Bet cost is $28.50 rather than $96 if you bet it 3 X 4 X 4 X 4

11 Separate Tickets:

0.50 PK4 4/4/2-4/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/5/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/5/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/6-8/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/5/1,3,7
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Old 11-18-2018, 07:39 PM   #13
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I don't think I should have bet $96 to win $124.15 in my opinion.
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Old 11-22-2018, 03:26 PM   #14
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11/22/18

$23.50 PK4 ABC 4,3,5/3,6,7/2,4,6/6,2,5,8,12

Any 2 Green horses must win.

11 Separate Tickets:
Cost: $23.50

0.50 PK4 4/3/2/6

0.50 PK4 3,5/3/2/6

0.50 PK4 4/6,7/2/6

0.50 PK4 4/3/4,6/6

0.50 PK4 4/3/2/2,5,8,12

0.50 PK4 3,5/6,7/2/6

0.50 PK4 3,5/3/4,6/6

0.50 PK4 3,5/3/2/2,5,8,12

0.50 PK4 4/6,7/4,6/6

0.50 PK4 4/6,7/2/2,5,8,12

0.50 PK4 4/3/4,6/2,5,8,12
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Old 11-22-2018, 04:58 PM   #15
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I gotta do something, so I'll bet a 60/40 Dutch bet in race 7.

$6 to win 4

$4 to win 6
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