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Old 01-18-2019, 06:22 PM   #16
classhandicapper
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A+ Class!
Exactly how I use pars.
Thanks.

PARs are not totally necessary. Those same examples look fine on Timeform because each horse is adjusted individually based on his own pace figures. But for clarity of thinking about a race it helps me.
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Old 01-19-2019, 03:25 AM   #17
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Thanks.

PARs are not totally necessary. Those same examples look fine on Timeform because each horse is adjusted individually based on his own pace figures. But for clarity of thinking about a race it helps me.
Pars for class are not to be considered, pars for every individual race, are. Every race is different, running styles match ups and pace ability for the E style horse's influence the final time for every race. Using "class" par times for speed and pace figures is not a good practice. Using a adjusted "par" for each race is.
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Old 01-19-2019, 10:18 AM   #18
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races where none of the horses have run to par
that makes sense.

If you are allowing for horses to 'jump up' to best a par, should be some reason. The horses don't read the Form. Maybe he's maturing physically (2 to 3 or 3 to 4), or maybe has been 'meeting' his previous highs while getting brutal trips lately, or something like a trainer change to a hot barn...

but some fields, you can just scan the figs and notice that the par is either too high or too low
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Old 01-19-2019, 02:09 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Pars for class are not to be considered, pars for every individual race, are. Every race is different, running styles match ups and pace ability for the E style horse's influence the final time for every race. Using "class" par times for speed and pace figures is not a good practice. Using a adjusted "par" for each race is.
How do adjust a par?
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Old 01-19-2019, 03:44 PM   #20
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How do adjust a par?
Project the par from historical speed figures in each race. Granted, class pars had to be used to come up with the speed figures in the first place. But if you project the par for each race, it adjusts for "good" fields and "bad" fields. This method is less useful/appropriate for fields with young horses.
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Old 01-19-2019, 04:44 PM   #21
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OK, projection method.
It sounded like Jay was doing something different.
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:25 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Pars for class are not to be considered, pars for every individual race, are. Every race is different, running styles match ups and pace ability for the E style horse's influence the final time for every race. Using "class" par times for speed and pace figures is not a good practice. Using a adjusted "par" for each race is.
I don't use PARs to make figures.

I compare the figures to the PAR for the class after the fact for the reasons I've suggested.
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Old 01-21-2019, 12:07 PM   #23
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I don't use PARs to make figures.

I compare the figures to the PAR for the class after the fact for the reasons I've suggested.
I honestly don't know how anyone could with any reliability these days. I'm not sure it could ever be done really, but you have to start somewhere. With the myriad of classes, conditions, distances, surfaces (including different courses at the same track), etc, it is just not possible in my opinion.
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Old 01-21-2019, 02:05 PM   #24
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Agree 100% with that.
Just making the pars to have a standard to work with, there is a very wide range in the individual numbers. Beyer or BRIS, some classes have many "divisions: within them.

Even using pace pars based on final times, I see HUGE variations, like seconds variations from one rce to another. I can only assume it is winds at AQU and mark the races as not reliable.

I look forward to OP opening because I have never seen a track as consistent to make pace figs for as they are. Not sure your experience, but I have more confidence in OP figures than anywhere else.
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Old 01-22-2019, 10:18 AM   #25
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I honestly don't know how anyone could with any reliability these days. I'm not sure it could ever be done really, but you have to start somewhere. With the myriad of classes, conditions, distances, surfaces (including different courses at the same track), etc, it is just not possible in my opinion.
I agree. I have given up hope of ever doing it nationally even if I had the data.

What I more or less do is stick to the classes where I have a good sample of older horses. Then I build theoretical PARs up and down around them based on the pecking order and conditions.

If you know your circuit well and watch how horses move around between maiden, claiming, allowance, and statebred you should have a very good idea of where all the horses fit on average.

The only tricky ones are 2yos and 3yos because the relationships compared to older vary as the year goes on and they are different between claiming and non claiming races.

I'm not trying to get too perfect anymore. I'm just trying to understand what's typical at the class. It helps as an owner too. When you are trying to spot your horse, you already know what kind of figure he's capable of. If you are thinking up moving him into another class or to another circuit, it helps to know what the competition in that class is likely to look like even before you start dragging up the PPs of the some of the horses that may show up.
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:11 AM   #26
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Tampa Race 4 (1/23)

Par for the race is 77 (BRIS). The 2, 5 & 6 have either matched/exceeded par in their last start, with nobody else even coming close in the race. Of the three, I like (5) the best because I believe she can move move forward. That said, regression is possible as well in her second start off the shelf.

Any thoughts? Posters in speed figure improvement are encouraged to post to voice their choice on impending improvement

Thanks.
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:18 AM   #27
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I think the best use of pars is to anchor the numbers to keep them from creeping. Periodically I update the par times to align them with the pars. I also update the pars to reflect the last three years actuals and normalize that to prevent number creep.

I have a par table with 15k+ entries and I will admit that I am now less than 100% at adding new conditions if they arise.

If anyone needs pars for Spt or GS I have them.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:17 AM   #28
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I think the best use of pars is to anchor the numbers to keep them from creeping. Periodically I update the par times to align them with the pars. I also update the pars to reflect the last three years actuals and normalize that to prevent number creep.

I have a par table with 15k+ entries and I will admit that I am now less than 100% at adding new conditions if they arise.

If anyone needs pars for Spt or GS I have them.
One of the stumbling blocks I run into is having a field in the data with a consistent and unique value for each class. Without that I can't automate a lot of the system. I wind up with different categories that are actually the same class and others with the same value that are actually different. I was doing some of it manually for awhile (in NY and when horses moved into stake company) but I threw in the towel. It was too much work for too little gain since I don't generate automatic plays or odds lines from my data. I still wish I had it though because there are many tests I'd like to run and I'd get better results with higher quality class info in the database. In some cases I substitute purses just for testing purposes, but that's fraught with peril.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:55 AM   #29
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Tampa Race 4 (1/23)

Par for the race is 77 (BRIS). The 2, 5 & 6 have either matched/exceeded par in their last start, with nobody else even coming close in the race. Of the three, I like (5) the best because I believe she can move move forward. That said, regression is possible as well in her second start off the shelf.

Any thoughts? Posters in speed figure improvement are encouraged to post to voice their choice on impending improvement

Thanks.
Here's how speed improvement stacks up using Bris numbers
Lady and Me +21 (79) at 7f vs. 58 at one mile prev.

G Q Girl +18 (71) at 6f. vs 53 at 7f. prev

Shanghai Shuffle +4 (69) at 6f vs. 65 at 6.5f prev.

Princess Jules +1 (79) at 5.5f vs. 78 at 6f. prev

Country Linedancer +13 (78) at 7f. vs 65 at 6.5f pref

Burkey's Babe +3 (72) at 6f. vs. 69 at 6f prev.

From a betting scenario, this is usually a no-bet as 3 horses are showing double digit speed improvement, and the is tied with at 79 SR in last race, although neither at 6f. My nod would go to since she earned it at 7f. If the goes off at her 10-1ML, then I may make another win bet on her, or include in exactas.
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