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Old 01-15-2019, 06:07 PM   #16
barahona44
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The Patriots rarely ever get their hats handed to them on those occasions when they do lose but two of the worst defeats the Bellichick-Brady Pats suffered were at the hands of the Chiefs.Those games were a bad regular season loss in KC about 4 years ago and opening night in 2017.KC barely lost to NE earlier this year on the road and the Super Bowl loss the Eagles had in 2004 came down to the last minute (as have ALL the Patriot Super Bowl games).In other words, Andy Reid is not intimidated by the three cornered hat helmet.

And as for the forecast,the Boston area very rarely gets that cold.That could also be a negative against the Pats.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:01 PM   #17
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The Patriots always look to slow down an opponents best offensive weapon. It will be the same with KC. No small task beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead but if the Pats play with the same intensity they showed the Chargers, look out.


Lots of envious haters write the Pats off as a bunch of under achievers, old men, no star players, say the AFC East is weak, have to cheat to win. blah, blah, blah.



All the Patriots seem to do is show up in these championship games. Bet against at your peril.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:46 PM   #18
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The Chiefs come “off the starting blocks,” quickly. They average about ten points in the first quarter; best in the NFL. The Patriots must be weary of that “early-lead” propensity. Every man “must do his job!” The Colts weren’t ready. They were totally ineffective in the first quarter. They suffered the consequences. In conclusion: If the Patriots have any chance of winning, it’s imperative that they stay close to the Chiefs in the early portion of game. Otherwise…

I believe the key is to put pressure on KC QB, Patrick Mahomes. How? Change up schemes. Odd-man rushes. Occasional blitzes. Change-up coverages. Put up different sets. Different coverage patterns. In other words, don’t, at all costs, become predictable. The Patriots have to keep the Chiefs guessing. Off balance.

The Patriots must put pressure on Mahomes (the Colts gave him all kinds of time to locate receivers). Mahommes cannot be allowed to “free-wheel” back there. He must be made to rush his throws. There are several KC players the Patriots must key on. Mahomes, obviously, is the key. He’s athletic. He’s talented. He’s brash. Unlike Philip Rivers, he's capable of running. Yet, he’s only played in one post-season game.

Others players are Tyreek Hill. He’s dangerous every time he touches the ball. He can return punts. He’s adept at flanker-reverses (student-body, left), and he can catch the football. Another threat is KC tight end, Travis Kelce. He’s a big target (a favorite of Mahomes). He’s quite capable of gaining yards after the catch.

Damien Williams is another threat. He’s a shifty back who was the KC star in the second half of the game against the Colts. If he runs the same way against the Patriots as he did against the Colts, it may be a long evening for the Patriots. He must be contained.

Sammy Watkins is an excellent receiver. He's capable of making outstanding catches.

On defense, the Patriots must keep an eye on left defensive end, Dee Ford. Very quick. He can prevent a back from getting to the line-of-scrimmage. He’s also an excellent pass-rusher. Another defensive player to watch is interior lineman, Chris Jones; he batted down or deflected several Andrew Luck passes.

In conclusion: I believe the key is get Mahomes out of his comfort zone. His rhythm. It will be no easy task.

Finally, the weather. I believe, subjectively, the frigid temps work in the Patriots favor. I believe it will slow down the game. I would have to believe the football will be both tough to throw and difficult to receive. Playing under the lights under those conditions can make it that much more difficult.

One final note: The Patriots must shut down the Chiefs offense. They must play the kind of game they played in their convincing win over the Chargers. Philip Rivers was pressured 70% of the time.

Next post will be the key players the Patriots will need to play at their best in order to win.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:39 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by jimmyb View Post
The Patriots always look to slow down an opponents best offensive weapon.
Guessing the 0 degree temperature help the Patriots. Its going to stifle the crowd. I've been to Patriot home games when its been zero and nobody is hootin & hollerin, high 5'ing when its ZERO.

Last Patriots game I went to was just like that. 2 hours in bumper to bumper traffic to get in, parking a 1/4 mile away, and shivering for 2 hours and saying Never Again! And I meant it 5 years ago. Give me the Green Line to Kenmore, hop skip & a jump to Fenway!

If Brady beats Mahone in KC...all I can say is GOAT cake icing.

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Old 01-16-2019, 03:34 AM   #20
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Guessing the 0 degreille temperature help the Patriots. Its going to stifle the crowd. I've been to Patriot home games when its been zero and nobody is hootin & hollerin, high 5'ing when its ZERO.

Last Patriots game I went to was just like that. 2 hours in bumper t to o bumper traffic to get in, parking a 1/4 mile away, and shivering for 2 hours and saying Never Again! And I meant it 5 years ago. Give me the Green Line to Kenmore, hop skip & a jump to Fenway!

If Brady beats Mahone in KC...all I can snay is GOAT cake icing.
the last time i went to a regular season Pats game was at Fenway Park. Babe Parilli was QB, Larry Garon was FB, Joe Bellino was the scat back, Gino Capaletti was the wing back and kicker.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:51 AM   #21
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The New England Patriots must keep “the pocket clean.” They must protect Brady. The Patriots offensive line did an outstanding job protecting Brady in the recent playoff game against the Chargers. Bosa was a non-factor and Ingram only exerted pressure when the game was well out of hand. The Patriots must pay particular attention to #55 Dee Ford coming off the edge. He’s very quick. Chris Jones is a pass-blocking and deflecting force in the KC interior line.

But what about the Patriots, offensively. I believe they must establish the run. The offensive line must exert its dominance. The Chiefs were terrible as a rush-defense team. They averaged giving up over 132 yards on the ground to their opponents. If the Patriots can run up those numbers in Sunday night’s game, it’s off to Atlanta. Further, the Chiefs pass-defense is atrocious. They were 31st in the league. They allowed almost 275 years through the air per game. If there’s a weakness, the Chiefs secondary appears to be it. If Andrew Luck had put up a passing attack earlier, the complexion and possibly the outcome of the game would have been different.

Furthermore, if there’s an “Achilles Heel,” it may well be in KC’s special teams punting unit. The Colts’ Goode blocked one (watch the films) for a touchdown (Pascal recovered in the end zone). Goode was later flagged for a ridiculous roughing-the-kicker call on another block.

I would expect Andy Reid to put double-coverage on both Julian Edelman and James White (White had five receptions in that opening, time-consuming Patriots drive against the Chargers). That set the tone.

But where does that leave us? “Gronk”. He was targeted only once in the Chargers game. He made the catch and added after-the-catch yardage. It was like watching the hard-to-bring-down “old” Gronk. This may be his “last hurrah”. His “swan song.” His coda tune. Gee, Rob Gronkowski could make a huge difference in this game. Just being on the field and providing key blocks. Yet, I believe he’ll catch minimum attention, i.e., single coverage. “Gronk” can do serious damage if he were to catch four or five balls during the game. His involvement would certainly open up other receivers. As the techno-rock group, “Daft Punk,” sang: “One More Time!”

Yet, if Julian Edelman and James White are kept in check, who can “Tom Terrific” turn to? There may be some unlikely heroes. For example, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett. I would add Rex Burkhead, James Develin and Coradelle Patterson.

Of course, we can expect Sony Michel to get the bulk of the carries. If Michel can have the same kind of a game (he got off to a slow start) that he did against the Chargers, it’s off to Mercedes-Benz (And, I ain’t talkin’ ‘bout Janis Joplin).
Then, there’s the defense. Every man “must do his job!” Names like Dont’a Hightower, Trey Flowers, Kyle Van Noy, Lawrence Guy, Marcus Cannon, Stephon Gilmore, the McCourty twins, Patrick Chung, etc.

Finally, Stephen Gostkowski, in addition to hitting his field goals, must keep the ball out of the hands of Tyreek Hill. That goes for Ryan Allen, as well.

Finally, if the Patriots win, Bill Belichick will win his 9th conference championship as a head coach. The most in Super Bowl history. That’s quite a legacy. In the same vein, Tom Brady, if the Patriots win, will have won his 9th conference title as a starting quarterback; the most in NFL history.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:44 AM   #22
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Final Thoughts

The Weather: Three days till kickoff. Recent forecasts have mitigated the outlook for extreme cold. Cold, but not arctic cold. Now, KC forecasters are talking about highs in the mid-20s, with overnight lows in the upper-teens. Yet the real-feel temp could be in the mid-teens.

For what it’s worth, I took my morning “constitution,” a half-hour walk. The temperatures here west of Boston were comparable to what they will likely be like at Arrowhead Stadium around game-time - upper-teens. Any exposed flesh – I have no ski-mask – is going to make your face feel it. Any wind makes it feel even worse. I found myself clenching my fists inside my gloves. When I got back to my house, my face was beet-red. Also, it’s much more difficult to walk in these conditions – granted I’m in my mid-70s - yet, I felt like “The Tin Man” in “The Wizard of Oz”. My legs felt like they were shackled. By the way, in December, 2016 the Chiefs lost to the Titans on a last-second field goal. The temperature that day: 1 degree.

The Arrowhead Stadium field: That is the “X” factor. The Unknown. What do we know? There is the possibility of 4 to 8 inches of snow in the metro KC area by noon on Saturday. It’s certainly not going to melt. The only place it will be melting is on the field at Arrowhead Stadium. As someone said, “The warmest place at Arrowhead Stadium may well be the field.” The underground pipes (reminds me of the Roman baths) can be set to a temperature of 60 degrees (I believe the minimum is 40 degrees). But what will the field look like? Will it be slippery? Will it become a bog? Will it become a quagmire? Under the heading of “conspiracy theory”: “Can the Chiefs call down to those who are operating the underground pipes and change the playing-field conditions during the game, or at halftime. The League cannot control that, only the Chiefs. If this sounds strange, some were complaining about how the Minnesota Twins were using the air-conditioning system to affect fly balls. Maybe that was a ploy, maybe not.

Shoes: Cleats, etc., call them what you will, are going to be extremely important. They must provide optimal traction. The Patriots equipment manager may feel he’s running a shoe store. I believe it would behoove the Patriots to get someone on the field sometime Sunday afternoon to assess field conditions. Earlier reports would be helpful. With an underground heating system, you can turn the tundra into a cranberry bog. With the heat of the pipes there will be condensation. Melting. Yet, with the heat coming from below, it probably won’t refreeze. Just get slushy if enough residual snow is on the field.

Patrick Mahomes:
He is the key. He can’t be allowed to get comfortable back there (The Colts allowed him to do just that). The Patriots have to put doubts in his mind. Different stunts. Different sets. Never predictable! An occasional blitz. He must be “encouraged” to take risks.

Sony Michel:
If Sony Michel can run the way he did against the Chargers: “Game, set, match!” He’s a major factor in controlling the ball and the clock. The offensive line must, through their blocking schemes, provide “lanes,” preferably one that a Mack Truck could fit through. Of course, there’s “Jules” and James White.

“Gronk”:
He does an excellent job blocking. If he can add some “icing” (no pun intended) to the cake by catching four or five passes, that would open up, everything. In that case, whom do the Chiefs cover?

“Unsung Heroes”: There are a handful of names. Wide receivers Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett can make a big difference. If they can get open and make some catches, that would put even more pressure on the Chiefs secondary. Yet, I’ll put out two names, one on offense and one on defense, that could make a huge difference for the Patriots. First, Rex Burkhead, “The Winchester Rifle,” is a North-South runner. He hits the line hard. He’s capable of carrying tacklers with him. “The Cornhusker” is a punishing runner. He could make a big difference. On the opposite side of the ball, the up-and-coming CB, J.C. Jackson. Bill Belichick calls Jackson, “a steady grinder”. He’s shown improvement throughout the season. He has three interceptions. And then, there’s Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s quick. He can be a factor on “gadget” plays and returns.

If there’s a Chief’s weakness…:
It’s in “their kicking game,” more specifically the “punting game,” i.e., punt protection. The Colts demonstrated that. It resulted in an Indy touchdown. The Chiefs may change up personnel; yet, if they have an “Achilles Heel,” their punt protection may well be it!

Constructive Comment:
Who am I, a guy who was better at chess than football, to suggest a comment to a future Hall-of-Famer? I’ve noticed recently that Tom Brady, although well-intentioned, has frittered away two scoring chances, i.e., field goals just before the half. In one case, Brady was sacked before “he could throw the ball away.” Time ran out. Field-goal range. No attempt. More recently, he threw to a receiver near the sideline who got out of bounds, but the clock kept running. Unlikely circumstance, but another missed opportunity for a field goal. I feel that unless you’re 100% sure you can stop the clock, throw it away. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. You can only take what you know the game will give you. Sometimes, missed opportunities come back to haunt you.
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Old 01-17-2019, 05:35 PM   #23
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Two Words: "Slot Blitz". The Chiefs had trouble picking it up. #20 Charcandrick West is a liability.
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Old 01-18-2019, 09:29 AM   #24
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Mercedes-Benz

“Oh lord, wont you buy me a mercedes benz?
My friends all drive porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So lord, wont you buy me a mercedes benz?”

- Janis Joplin

“Everything’s up to date in Kansas City…” Or, is it? Many imponderables.
Who, from the AFC, is going to Mercedes-Benz in Atlanta for the Super Bowl?: The Patriots or the Chiefs? The AFC Championship game is this Sunday at 6:40 p.m. at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs are favored by 3 points over the Patriots. When was the last time that happened? This is the first time in 68 games that a Tom Brady-led Patriots team has been cast as the underdog. The over-under is currently 56 points.

The weather forecasts have changed. I personally don’t see the weather, i.e., cold weather, as that much of a factor as I had previously thought. It now appears that tomorrow, Saturday, is the “cold-weather” day/evening. Sunday should be warmer, upper 20s, and less blustery. Oh, it’ll be cold, but certainly not nearly as cold as it would have been had the game been played Saturday evening.

I would be the last one to tout you on whom to bet. In fact, if I picked someone, I’d encourage you to bet the other team. Yet, the over-under number still intrigues me. I believe a lot will be determined by the condition of the playing surface. That won’t be known until Sunday. There’s certain to be snow from the previous day. In the Chiefs vs. Colts game, the previous snow was negligible on the playing surface. In that game, both teams seemed to have good traction.

As I see it, one of Patriots' main advantages is their coaching staff. Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, now in his 20th season as Patriots mentor, is a “master” at seeking out and exploiting opposing teams’ weakness. He is ably assisted by a host of assistants, e.g., Josh McDaniels, Brian Flores, Dante Scarnecchia, etc. This isn’t to say that Chiefs coach, Andy Reid, is any slouch. It’s just that Bill Belichick well…is Bill Belichick.

I would see one of the main goals of both teams to be the task of confusing the opposing quarterback. I’m sure much preparation has taken place on both sides to try to accomplish that goal and also to avoid it.

I believe the first quarter is critical. The Chiefs are fast-starters. If this were a thoroughbred race, the Chiefs would get the track announcer’s first call. It is important that the Patriots stay with them. They cannot afford to play come-from-behind football. In that case, the Chiefs will do what they did to the Colts in the 2nd half. Damien Williams…Damien Williams…Damien Williams. Pound…pound...pound. That ground-approach would chew up the clock. It would keep the Patriots offense off the field.

In conclusion, I’m looking forward to this game with great anticipation. I’m curious as to the strategy and tactics that both coaches employ.

No, I wasn’t a football player, but I certainly enjoyed a good chess match.
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Old 01-18-2019, 11:36 AM   #25
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I'd pay money to sit and watch this game with you.

Interesting stat I saw on ESPN a night or two ago. Mahomes' completion percentage to "wide open" receivers, meaning receivers with x yards of separation (Can't remember what x equaled. 3 maybe) was highest in the NFL. Patriots secondary allowed the lowest amount of receptions to "wide open" receivers in the league. Their secondary is a blanket.

Chiefs will show a lot of motion pre-snap. Patriots need to make sure their coverage is organized. Keeping Mahomes stationary will be a difficult task, but necessary. If he is allowed to extend plays and let all that speed they have work downfield, he can chew up anybody.

68 games since they were a 'dog? Was that the Seattle SB then?
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Old 01-18-2019, 12:58 PM   #26
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Of the 2 playoff games this weekend I think this is the tougher one to nail down.

Based on momentum, routing the Chargers (who beat KC at home previously), and having already beaten KC, I’m going with the Patriots to win outright and getting the points.
I also like the over 57 here.
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Old 01-18-2019, 01:21 PM   #27
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Who do you like in the other? Whatever the overs are, I'll take them. NO has a very good D, but the Rams can really fill in the blanks on the scoreboard.
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Old 01-18-2019, 02:49 PM   #28
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Who do you like in the other? Whatever the overs are, I'll take them. NO has a very good D, but the Rams can really fill in the blanks on the scoreboard.
Of the 2 playoff games this weekend I think this one is a bit more straight forward.

Based on momentum, routing the Cowboys (who beat NO previously) with a revised defense and improved running game, and having already played NO at home twice this season (Includes a Pre-season game) I’m going with the RAMS to win outright and getting the points. I don’t think the home crowd will have as much of an impact.
I also like the over 57 here.

Note: Should KC win the early game I’ll be rooting for NO because I wouldn’t be interested in another shootout like what the RAMS & KC had earlier this year. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Patriots/Saints Superbowl either.
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Old 01-18-2019, 02:53 PM   #29
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Final Thoughts



If there’s a Chief’s weakness…:
It’s in “their kicking game,” more specifically the “punting game,” i.e., punt protection. The Colts demonstrated that. It resulted in an Indy touchdown. The Chiefs may change up personnel; yet, if they have an “Achilles Heel,” their punt protection may well be it!
That blocked punt was the first time that has happened to the Chiefs in 5 years. That's was a blown block;the Colt who blocked the punt ran in untouched.
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:38 PM   #30
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Latest precipitation forecast coming out of Kansas City indicates rain changing to mixed precipitation late this afternoon or in the evening, followed by snow. The estimates are 1 to 4 inches. No blockbuster storm. More in the realm of a frontal passage. High temps on Sunday are pegged in the upper-20s. Winds will be blustery during the day, but they will be subsiding by game-time. The real-feel temperature could be in the upper-teens.


The condition of the field is critical. The Chiefs need a fast track. We'll know Sunday. I'd counsel waiting as long as possible before wagering a bob or two.


I'm going to offer my pick and score. Please don't follow me, I haven't done well in sports betting endeavors. Yet, here goes: New England Patriots, 20, Kansas City Chiefs, 13.
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