Joe Kelley
www.winatthehorses.com
www.upperroomwithjoekelley.com
(Radio show)
Saturday's card is solid and we have a few choice races for you. Look for vulnerable or false favorites and then make sure your contenders get overlay odd.
RACE 1: Immediately, we see a vulnerable favorite here with the # 1 MAKE THE POINT. He was running in graded stakes, albeit without success, earlier in the year. Now, he comes off a lengthy absence and is running in a 17.5 K claimer. Definite fire sale alert. So, where do we go? # 6 TRUE REBEL was leading in the stretch last out and now gets a positive rider change to Eibar Coa. The gelding is 3 for 3 in the money in Aqueduct starts. # 5 FIVE CARD POKER loves the 6 F distance and Tony Dutrow is 22% dropping horses down one level. # 8 SONNY'S THE ONE exits a race where the second place finished came back to win. Greg DiPrima gets 30% winners dropping horses one class.
PLAY: Acceptable win bet odds # 6 (7/2) , # 5 (9/2) and # 8 (5/1) .
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RACE 2: Another false favorite scenario. # 7 RAFFFIE DEER has lost 13 maiden tries and is deep into his 4 year old campaign. This gelding does not warrant 3/1 ML odds. # 2 CITY SNEAKERS drops from MSW to maiden claimers and gets The Mig for the ride. Has shown some early speed . # 5 ANNIE'S WHEEL ran at Belmont Sept. 10th and a comparable effort would be enough to win this tilt. Has early speed and has improved since adding blinkers. # 8 B D'S PHOENIX goes for a great maiden claiming debut trainer in Dom Galluscio. He wins at 20%.
PLAY: Acceptable win bet odds # 2 (3/1) , # 5 (5/1) and # 8 (7/1) .
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RACE 3: Favorites win only 7% of the races at the 20Knonwin2L claiming condition. So, let's take a shot. # 2 PHOBIA is true early speed of the race and gets a nice rider change to Morales. # 7 ECTOPLASM should be sitting nicely off the early pace and Mike Luzzi has won on this colt before.
PLAY: Acceptable win odds on # 2 (7/2) and # 7 (4/1).
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RACE 4: In turf races, look to see lengths beaten rather than finish position. Our top choice # 8 MEMORIZED was beaten by only a length and a half and finished fifth last out. Added the blinkers last time and we think it could be graduation day. Thunder Gulch is the grandsire of # 11 LAGUNA MOON. Prado takes the ride and you know he means biz. Billy Badgett shows a great + 2.53 ROI on first time starters.
PLAY: Acceptable win odds on # 8 (4/1) and # 11 (8/1). Exacta box # 2 with # 8 and # 11.
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RACE 5: # 7 PYGMALION came off the shelf and ran an impressive race just giving up the lead in the stretch. Comes back today for Mike Hushion who is dynamite with second off the layoff.
PLAY: Win bet on # 7 at 4/1 and better.
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RACE 6: # 3 BUDDY'S SONG gets a rider change to Johnny V and Bruce Levine gets them at 22% for second time out. The debut was a public workout. Look for improved showing.
PLAY: Win bet on # 3 at 4/1 and up.
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RACE 7: Easier to ship and win west to east than vice versa. # 8 MARZELLINE goes for Mr. Cecil and Tyler Baze. # 3 HOSTESS loves the distance and the Aqueduct turf course.
PLAY: Acceptable win odds on # 8 (5/1) and # 3 (3/1). Exacta box # 1/1A with 3, 8.
****
RACE 9: # 2 CITY IN LINE goes second time for Allen Jerkens and he wins at 33% with this move. Prado is on this colt who stretches out.
PLAY: Win bet at 3/1 and up for # 2.
