country house

[boys at tosconova]

say what you want, but horse ran a very respectable race.

it didn't look like he left with much gusto, but he kind of did...he was mid pack early on. whether this was because some horses didn't like the slop or some other reasons is up to debate.

after that he could have thrown in the towel at many different points but he kept coming and was never out of the race, and never that far behind.

waffle house was 7th at the half....vekoma was 6th racing very wide and spinoff was really wide. a few in back of of him were wide as well.

prat had the horse in great position. and he just kept advancing....country fried steak ran the race you thought game winner or roadster was going to run.

this wasn't really how he was suppose to get 2nd, or hit the board. let alone win. the horse earned it

[GaryG]

I really liked him in the Ark Derby, but he lost his punch after a middle move. I did not think he would run that well at 10 furlongs. Maybe it was surface related....we will find out in two weeks I guess.

[zico20]

Country House will be at least 10-1 in the Preakness. If Game Winner and Improbable run back that puts him third at best.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by zico20

Country House will be at least 10-1 in the Preakness. If Game Winner and Improbable run back that puts him third at best.

He’s probably not going.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

say what you want, but horse ran a very respectable race.

Yes, he ran nicely and unimpeded. Yet he had every chance (and the best chance of the 17 others) to go by the leader but couldn't and didn't.

[boys at tosconova]

he ran a great race that nobody could have predicted.

sure you could throw out he might be coming at the end in a fast pace scenario, and hope that the other closers have some kind of trouble.

but the only legitimate way to come up with him is getting very lucky boxing multiple closers , or wheeling code of honor back and forth.

and even with that you still needed a dq..lol

other than that your basically playing name/number/ or just a being a long shot player.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

he ran a great race that nobody could have predicted.

sure you could throw out he might be coming at the end in a fast pace scenario, and hope that the other closers have some kind of trouble.

but the only legitimate way to come up with him is getting very lucky boxing multiple closers , or wheeling code of honor back and forth.

and even with that you still needed a dq..lol

other than that your basically playing name/number/ or just a being a long shot player.

I had him on top in my super play. Mott loved him and he was out of Lookin at Lucky who ran good on off tracks

[thaskalos]

In my handicapping opinion...Country House was the worst horse going into the Derby, ability-wise. I attribute his performance yesterday strictly to the condition of the track...and I don't expect to see this horse anywhere near the vicinity of the finish line when the winner crosses the wire in the upcoming TC races.

Of course...I've been proven wrong before.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In my handicapping opinion...Country House was the worst horse going into the Derby, ability-wise. I attribute his performance yesterday strictly to the condition of the track...and I don't expect to see this horse anywhere near the vicinity of the finish line when the winner crosses the wire in the upcoming TC races.

Of course...I've been proven wrong before.

I never recall you being wrong!!! He won't be anywhere in the Preakness.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In my handicapping opinion...Country House was the worst horse going into the Derby, ability-wise. I attribute his performance yesterday strictly to the condition of the track...and I don't expect to see this horse anywhere near the vicinity of the finish line when the winner crosses the wire in the upcoming TC races.

Of course...I've been proven wrong before.

i don't think that's fair to the horse. sure, you could throw out a blanket statement which may or may not be true and say it was because of the "condition of the track" and back it up with conviction that he won't do it again, because he has never done anything like it. i respect that, and it may be true.

but the horse earned it. he didn't sit, wait, scoot up the rail, luck sack into a super fast pace, etc....the only benefit he had was getting a great ride and having horse. you really can't say he didn't earn 2nd place. the horse raced like a high profile contender throughout

[Gold Medal]

Max Security would embarrass Country House if they both run in the Preakness.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i don't think that's fair to the horse. sure, you could throw out a blanket statement which may or may not be true and say it was because of the "condition of the track" and back it up with conviction that he won't do it again, because he has never done anything like it. i respect that, and it may be true.

but the horse earned it. he didn't sit, wait, scoot up the rail, luck sack into a super fast pace, etc....the only benefit he had was getting a great ride and having horse. you really can't say he didn't earn 2nd place. the horse raced like a high profile contender throughout

I don't know that I am being unfair to the horse. I analyzed this horse's last 3 races at length...and found them consistently slower than the races of the opposing horses. I've also seen plenty of races on a muddy track where the horses have run as if their past performances were forgeries. I put the two together and conclude that what we saw yesterday was a poor indication of what these horses are really capable of...and I predict a much different scenario unfolding in the future.

Nothing "unfair" about the horse at all...IMO.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't know that I am being unfair to the horse. I analyzed this horse's last 3 races at length...and found them consistently slower than the races of the opposing horses. I've also seen plenty of races on a muddy track where the horses have run as if their past performances were forgeries. I put the two together and conclude that what we saw yesterday was a poor indication of what these horses are really capable of...and I predict a much different scenario unfolding in the future.

Nothing "unfair" about the horse at all...IMO.

you can say whatever you wish. anyone would be lying if they said the horse had much of a chance to win based on past performances and awful post.

seemed like the horses ceiling was to try and get lucky and close for a back end piece in the best case scenario.

it's easy to find excuses, or say i don't believe in the horse. slop, distance large field is an automatic bad excuse for all.

[f2tornado]

He was only one of a few that fit the speed plus variant angle so I played him in a box sans the 13 and under the 7. His first stallion should be named Asterisk.

[MNslappy]

Best TimeForm late pace fig in the field. And just visually for what it's worth, go back and watch his races and watch for his move. When he gets chuggin his ability to fan wide and start picking off horses is pretty visually impressive, albeit they were mostly non-winning moves. But after watching all the preps over and over and over again I came away thinking, if this one gets a great ride and a little luck he'll be right there to pick up the pieces and at least hit the board. No way was he the "worst horse in the race" going in, not on paper he wasn't.