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04-24-2019, 11:23 AM
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#91
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
You have to watch out for colts that have JUST DONE ENOUGH as we never actually know what their limits may yet be.
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I can agree with this. Further, hard closing Raise A Native sire line horses have a huge Derby winning impact value. I'm using him with a couple others. He could be a special horse or could be an also ran. Worth a shot at the former for the price I expect on the tote.
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04-24-2019, 11:47 AM
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#92
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,889
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American Pharoah had slow pace figes early in his career.
MS is my biggest ? this year...with to do with him
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04-24-2019, 12:04 PM
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#93
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
American Pharoah had slow pace figes early in his career.
MS is my biggest ? this year...with to do with him
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He's the key to all my exotics. So I guess now you can toss him.
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04-24-2019, 03:40 PM
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#94
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
You have to watch out for colts that have JUST DONE ENOUGH as we never actually know what their limits may yet be.
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Seasoning has it's benefits.
If he is, indeed, faster than every other horse in the race, and can sustain it out to 10F, he wins.
If he's not the fastest horse in the race, a horse like him who wins easily won't usually be able to run faster "when they need to."
So it all depends on how much pressure you think he's going to get.
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04-24-2019, 03:49 PM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Seasoning has it's benefits.
If he is, indeed, faster than every other horse in the race, and can sustain it out to 10F, he wins.
If he's not the fastest horse in the race, a horse like him who wins easily won't usually be able to run faster "when they need to."
So it all depends on how much pressure you think he's going to get.
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I dont think the pace is really gonna be all too fast... but not a walk in the park at the same time. Question is who gets first run at him. Usually as of late the horse leading at 9F has been hanging on to the finish line. I can see Improbable or Omaha Beach hanging just off him and taking over. Mike Smith's ride on Omaha Beach just oozed confidence. Will he push Maximum Security which will take some of the piss and vinegar out of Omaha Beach and set it up for Improbable.. I can see it.
Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-24-2019 at 03:51 PM.
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04-24-2019, 04:09 PM
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#96
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
... I can see Improbable or Omaha Beach hanging just off him and taking over. Mike Smith's ride on Omaha Beach just oozed confidence. Will he push Maximum Security which will take some of the piss and vinegar out of Omaha Beach and set it up for Improbable.. I can see it.
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Add Game Winner in that mix as well and that's pretty much how I see it playing out barring a bad break for one of them. I'm thinking the exacta is within that quartet and potentially the trifecta. Throw a couple closers on the bottom as one almost always fills the tri or super. This Derby seemingly has a lot of potential to resemble the 2015 American Pharoah-Firing Line-Dortmund merry go round.
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04-24-2019, 04:28 PM
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#97
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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The War Emblem Derby scenario keeps popping up in my head.
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04-24-2019, 05:48 PM
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#98
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 116
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Totally agree! I think the pace will be luke warm at best and could get a cheap lead with OB/GW tailing him in the stretch, just need to see if he can hold them off.
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04-24-2019, 06:29 PM
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#99
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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I think the pace will be 1:11and 2 to 1:11and 4.
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04-24-2019, 06:40 PM
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#100
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
I think the pace will be 1:11and 2 to 1:11and 4.
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Would dramatically favor the lead pack types. The last three times a closer won the 3/4 fraction was sub 1:10. Since then it’s been six winners with around 1:11.
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04-24-2019, 06:41 PM
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#101
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 116
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I like MS a lot and wondering if he really sets GW for the stretch drive? This years tri might be luke warm at best??
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04-27-2019, 02:08 AM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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i think i found max security's KD race
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04-27-2019, 07:47 AM
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#103
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Omaha Beach is the one that will set/force the pace, not Maximum Security.
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04-27-2019, 08:34 PM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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Will disagree...Improbable will SET the pace....Baffert wants the rabbit....and has him...
By the way...with THE "anchor' off of WWW...he ran pretty quick early in his career....certainly can do here as well...if instructed to do so...people forget things...
Thinking the pace WILL BE on the FASTER side....
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04-27-2019, 09:19 PM
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#105
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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But that is not Improbable's (best) running style. He usually lays 3rd or so during most of the race.
Impossibru!
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