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01-25-2024, 07:13 AM
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#1
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Let's Go METS
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: BROOKLYN NY
Posts: 4,239
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Pegasus World Cup Invitational
__________________
HORSE SENSE IS WHAT A HORSE
HAS NOT TO BET $2.00 ON A HUMAN
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01-25-2024, 07:34 AM
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#2
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,088
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From the linkage: "In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner...."
Pretty far fall from the race's once-lofty goals.
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01-25-2024, 09:04 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,223
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
From the linkage: "In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner...."
Pretty far fall from the race's once-lofty goals.
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Trying to remember if it was Quinn or Mark Cramer who emphasized "Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses" i.e. don't expect surprise winners when there are multiple Grade 1 winners in the race.
We certainly don't get much chance to test that maxim these days.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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01-27-2024, 06:54 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 442
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Nimitz Class seems like a viable longshot, if one weren't so inclined to take a shorter price here.
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01-27-2024, 07:43 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)
Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.
1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1
Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.
Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.
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01-27-2024, 07:50 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)
Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.
1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1
Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.
Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.
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Long odds? It's a terrible morning line.
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01-27-2024, 08:07 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Long odds? It's a terrible morning line.
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The time I took to outline that and your only comment is about someone else's bad morning line? Whew...
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01-27-2024, 09:49 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
The time I took to outline that and your only comment is about someone else's bad morning line? Whew...
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The lines are off all day. Didia at 6:1 in the 10th? Signator 15:1 in the 11th? Making morning lines is an incredibly difficult job to do well, I couldn't do it, but you can't blow the easy ones. Senor Buscador is a relatively easy one.
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01-27-2024, 09:58 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
The lines are off all day. Didia at 6:1 in the 10th? Signator 15:1 in the 11th? Making morning lines is an incredibly difficult job to do well, I couldn't do it, but you can't blow the easy ones. Senor Buscador is a relatively easy one.
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I would not argue that. My point is more about a live runner in the big race that comes alive when layered over what appears to have been a significant track bias last time he ran. Whether he's 6-1, 15-1 or 20-1 I still think he's worth a play in that race.
What do you think he'll go off at? I'm guessing about 6-1.
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01-27-2024, 10:07 AM
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#10
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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There are some real doozies... the morning line is fucked
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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01-27-2024, 10:11 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
I would not argue that. My point is more about a live runner in the big race that comes alive when layered over what appears to have been a significant track bias last time he ran. Whether he's 6-1, 15-1 or 20-1 I still think he's worth a play in that race.
What do you think he'll go off at? I'm guessing about 6-1.
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6:1 to 8:1 max feels close. He's interesting because of what you said but his running style is a bit of a concern on that track. However, I would agree you can't look at him as a 20:1 shot. I wouldn't bet him at 6:1 but don't think it's a terrible price. Feels fairish whatever that means:-)
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01-27-2024, 10:18 AM
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#12
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,292
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In the Pegasus Turf Im going to play Kingmax to find his way into the exotics at what should be double digit odds.
Must use the undefeated and very impressive #3 and will likely fade Warm Heart vs the boys after a lot of travel the last few months in the final start of her career.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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01-27-2024, 10:22 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
6:1 to 8:1 max feels close. He's interesting because of what you said but his running style is a bit of a concern on that track. However, I would agree you can't look at him as a 20:1 shot. I wouldn't bet him at 6:1 but don't think it's a terrible price. Feels fairish whatever that means:-)
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Agree. Late runners like this are often fools gold. They often do their running after the race is already decided. Good luck today!
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01-27-2024, 11:04 AM
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#14
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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Pegasus is a gold mine.
looking at the pick 5, from races 9-13
then I look at race 8 , the mile and a half McKnight?
I need a coffee or something
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 01-27-2024 at 11:10 AM.
Reason: no reason
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01-27-2024, 11:41 AM
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#15
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)
Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.
1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1
Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.
Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.
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In the Pegasus, yea the is a horse that's within the flow of the race.
I think up front National Treasure will run a big one. He improved in the BC dirt mile.
Depending on how conservative the other pace in here is I see National Treasure either winning or getting in the top four.
The , , and the Senor Buscador all should have a good chance to hit the board.
I'll throw something together w/ all four of these horses, but probably look at using 7=Key1 and 2,3,6=Key2.
Looking at Dynamic One in some extra tix penciled underneath horses.
I liked Dynamic One's recent work on January 20th.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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