|
|
05-06-2023, 02:25 AM
|
#46
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,507
|
- Forte
- Mandarin Hero
- Mage
- Tapit
- Verifying
As always, tried to avoid the favorite, but although far from dominance, he looks to have a clear 1.5 lengths over the next two, who seem close, and 3 lengths over the last two. MH seems seriously overlaid and Tapit somewhat underlaid at current odds of 27-1 and 5-1, respectively. If you think the race will be quicker than a pace figure of 1:10.8 would imply, (which I doubt) MH a viable win candidate, coming off the pace.
DS - Japanese horse: ?
Best of luck to all.
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 02:45 AM
|
#47
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,171
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by lansdale
- Forte
- Mandarin Hero
- Mage
- Tapit
- Verifying
As always, tried to avoid the favorite, but although far from dominance, he looks to have a clear 1.5 lengths over the next two, who seem close, and 3 lengths over the last two. MH seems seriously overlaid and Tapit somewhat underlaid at current odds of 27-1 and 5-1, respectively. If you think the race will be quicker than a pace figure of 1:10.8 would imply, (which I doubt) MH a viable win candidate, coming off the pace.
DS - Japanese horse: ?
Best of luck to all.
|
Spot on. This is exactly every horse where I'm landing on and I so badly want to kick Forte.
Tossing in Derma as well, and try to bottom fill 3 and 4 holes with Reincarnate and Hit Show.
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 04:17 AM
|
#48
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,820
|
a lot of good horses
i was originally going to go with TWO PHILS, mainly because i like Rivelli, and the horse has the right name for me, and he hasn't done to much wrong!
but he drew inside of too many good horses in this race. he still has to change surfaces.
so now i am going with my original derby selection before he ever saw an afternoon racetrack over a year ago. he is tough to play mainly because he only has broken his maiden and it took him 2 races to do that and his last race in the Lexington left plenty to be desired. if you can throw out the last race and give him credit for training better than any of the other 19 horses in this race, you have a big price to shoot at. also, it looks like he has the perfect post position to get the job done.
it is going to be DISARM for me tonight
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 07:27 AM
|
#49
|
Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,862
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
i was originally going to go with TWO PHILS, mainly because i like Rivelli, and the horse has the right name for me, and he hasn't done to much wrong!
but he drew inside of too many good horses in this race. he still has to change surfaces.
so now i am going with my original derby selection before he ever saw an afternoon racetrack over a year ago. he is tough to play mainly because he only has broken his maiden and it took him 2 races to do that and his last race in the Lexington left plenty to be desired. if you can throw out the last race and give him credit for training better than any of the other 19 horses in this race, you have a big price to shoot at. also, it looks like he has the perfect post position to get the job done.
it is going to be DISARM for me tonight
|
2 Phil’s named after your posting habits?
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 08:44 AM
|
#50
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
|
Angel of Empires
Dermo Sotogake
Tapit Trice
Mandarin Hero
I could rotate all of these to an extent, but you've gotta pick an order. So I'll stick with Angel of Empire, especially after Flavien didn't get it done on the chalk in the Oaks.
Good luck and let's get some horizontal wagering success today!
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 08:48 AM
|
#51
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2023
Posts: 51
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geno_Gino
... Now that the PPs are out on DRF, I have formed an opinion and will bet accordingly:
$2 exacta box 2, 8, 9, 10
$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 9, 10
$10 win #9 Skinner
$82 investment. ...
|
Hmmmm ... given it's the Derby, I'll still have to bet:
$2 exacta box 2, 8, 14, 18
$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 14, 18
$10 win #18 Rocket Can
$82 investment
Good luck to everyone rooting and/or wagering!
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 10:34 AM
|
#52
|
Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 740
|
I really need to put this down and focus on the other races today. Every time I nail it down, another scratch mixes it up a little. With Forte out, here's the revised play:
Win
Exactas (20):
, , :22: / , , , , , :22:
Extras with , especially on top
Trifectas (66):
, , / , , , , , :22: / , , , , , :22:
:22: / , , / , ,
Superfectas (36)
, , / , , :22: / , , / , ,
, , / , , / , , :22: / , ,
It's a spread, but they don't include the top two choices—maybe three if Two Phil's edges Derma Sotogake for third choice. Just 3.3% more win money on than at the moment.
A win dutch of + is slightly better odds than straight ; dutching all three would be 3-1. Not out of the question to preserve the moral victory of picking the winner should a chalk bust the exotics.
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 10:38 AM
|
#53
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 33
|
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 11:41 AM
|
#54
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,009
|
Derby picks
Angel of Empire
Two Phils
22 Manerine Hero
Iapit Tric
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 05-06-2023 at 11:42 AM.
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 11:48 AM
|
#55
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,009
|
Derby picks
Angel of Empire
Two Phils
22 Manerine Hero
Iapit Trice
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 05-06-2023 at 11:50 AM.
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 11:59 AM
|
#56
|
Unreconstructed
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,646
|
DERMA SOTOGAKE
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
HIT SHOW
TAPIT TRICE
Tri box and Ex box
__________________
Deo Vindice
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 03:02 PM
|
#57
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
practical move
forte
exacta box.
Allan
|
both scratched.
now Kingsbarn across the board.
Allan
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 03:32 PM
|
#58
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 3,030
|
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 03:59 PM
|
#59
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Last One Standing in MI
Posts: 1,180
|
__________________
Pace Engineer
|
|
|
05-06-2023, 04:05 PM
|
#60
|
Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 740
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|