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03-02-2019, 04:40 AM
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#601
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Update: R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....1-8-2 W/ 5-11-4
....4:45 AM EST
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03-02-2019, 05:03 AM
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#602
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Update: R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....1-8-2 W/ 5-11-4
....4:45 AM EST
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2-11-8-13 Dutch Win 25% Profit Margin-Passed / $60.60 Quinella & $370.40 Triple / ALL of that one!
It turned out to be a breakeven card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of only 3%, and came from hitting 3 of 6 playable races (One of which was a posted typo). Early on is was all about some big upsets with those LSs rolling in.
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03-05-2019, 08:49 PM
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#604
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 17,265
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Hey Nitro and woodbine... I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to stay up late hours and make a Hong Kong thread like you guys do. It seems like you two make some nice scores with the system's you have.
Last edited by Unicorn; 03-05-2019 at 08:52 PM.
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03-05-2019, 10:10 PM
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#605
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,796
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Thanks for the kind words, hopefully we are helping you learn about the circuit. If you ever have any questions please feel free sending me a PM and I will do the best of my ability to help answer any questions you may have, and not to speak for Nitro but i am sure he would do the same too. Good Luck
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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03-06-2019, 01:03 AM
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#606
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Hey Nitro and woodbine... I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to stay up late hours and make a Hong Kong thread like you guys do. It seems like you two make some nice scores with the system's you have.
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Hey there Unicorn! I'm glad there are some like yourself who can appreciate what Woody and I try to share. I know for a fact that Woody spends a lot of time preparing his detailed write up for each race day at HK. I'm fortunate to perhaps not spend the same amount of time because all of my selections (both early and late) are based solely on the tote board activities. At the end of this year's HK race meet I plan on demonstrating just how powerful the tote analysis is especially when it comes to the 3-entry Win Dutching scheme I use.
Your kind words are much appreciated and from what I've seen some of your international plays aren't to shabby either!
GL 
Nick
Last edited by Nitro; 03-06-2019 at 01:15 AM.
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03-06-2019, 01:09 AM
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#607
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 3/6/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,
Post Time Race #1 6:15 AM WED EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T
.2-5-11 W/ 9-6-10
...6:15 AM
(May sub #9, #6 or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..4-9-12 W/ 1-10-2
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6:45 AM
(May sub #1, #10 or #2 into top 3 & may add #6 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
R#3 1200M C4 (6F)T
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.2-9-7 W/ 12-6-1
..7:15 AM
(May sub #12, #6 or #1 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
..4-6-2 W/ 11-7-9
..7:45 AM
(May sub #11, #7 or #9 into top 3 & may add #12 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
R#5- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T
.7-3-8 W/ 9-11-1
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8:15 AM
(May sub #9, #11, or #1 into top 3 & may add #2 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
R#6- 1800M C3 (9F)T
...4-3-2 W/ 5-9-10
...8:45 AM
(May sub #5, #9 or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
....7-11-4 W/ 2-10-5 ....9:15 AM
(May sub #2, #10 or #5 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#8- 1200M C2 (6F)T
...3-5-1 W/ 11-12-4
9:50 AM
(May sub #11, #12 or #4 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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03-06-2019, 06:22 AM
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#608
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 17,265
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Hey guys. I'm having a little trouble with Hong Kong sometimes based upon the information I use to try to pick winners. Can you recommend a good site for stats or multiple tipping sites? I have better luck finding info for South Africa.
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03-06-2019, 06:52 AM
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#609
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 978
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As far as tipping sites go, you could do far worse than right here at PaceAdvantage
An alternative (or complement) is to Dutch the top 3 consensus of the on-air commentators of the English language video feed from Hong Kong.
Good luck!
Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System "The Modern Sartin Methodology" . . . . www.rdss2.com
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03-06-2019, 12:36 PM
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#610
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
As far as tipping sites go, you could do far worse than right here at PaceAdvantage
An alternative (or complement) is to Dutch the top 3 consensus of the on-air commentators of the English language video feed from Hong Kong.
Good luck!
Ted |
Thanks for the compliment!
I agree that very often a Consensus of the HK live pre-race commentators can be very helpful, particularly from a physicality point of view. However, other than Jenny the remaining group more-often-than-not will be choosing entries with less value which will inadvertently make a viable 3-entry Dutch Win bet return with a corresponding lower value.
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03-06-2019, 12:42 PM
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#611
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Quote:
R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T
.2-5-11 W/ 9-6-10
...6:15 AM
(May sub #9, #6 or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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7-2-1-10 Dutch Loss 102% Margin/
Quote:
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..4-9-12 W/ 1-10-2
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6:45 AM
(May sub #1, #10 or #2 into top 3 & may add #6 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
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4-9-11-2 Dutch Win 40% Margin-Passed/ $12.50 Quinella
Quote:
R#3 1200M C4 (6F)T
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.2-9-7 W/ 12-6-1
..7:15 AM
(May sub #12, #6 or #1 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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9-12-8-10 BIG Dutch Win 226% Margin / $17.40 Quinella
Quote:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
..4-6-2 W/ 11-7-9
..7:45 AM
(May sub #11, #7 or #9 into top 3 & may add #12 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
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6-5-4-11 BIG Dutch Win 142% Margin /
Quote:
R#5- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T
.7-3-8 W/ 9-11-1
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8:15 AM
(May sub #9, #11, or #1 into top 3 & may add #2 to bottom 3 if live tote dictates)
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7-3-8-1 Dutch Win 24% Margin-Passed/ $10.80 Quinella & $160.20 Triple COLD & (Quartet $6217.60) / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#6- 1800M C3 (9F)T
...4-3-2 W/ 5-9-10
...8:45 AM
(May sub #5, #9 or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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4-9-1-2 Dutch Win 71% Margin/ $14.90 Quinella
**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race. Hit 3 of 4 possible plays & finishing todays card with a healthy 89% O.A. Profit Margin!
Quote:
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
....7-11-4 W/ 2-10-5 / #11 swapped for #10 the betting Fav ......9:15 AM
(May sub #2, #10 or #5 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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1-5-7-10 Dutch Loss 27% Margin/Passed
Quote:
R#8- 1200M C2 (6F)T
...3-5-1 W/ 11-12-4
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9:50 AM
(May sub #11, #12 or #4 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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10-3-9-2 Dutch Loss 115% Margin-Passed / Quota Reached
It turned out to be another very profitable card.
My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 89% and was hit from the first 3 of 4 playable races.
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03-09-2019, 01:46 PM
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#612
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,796
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. March 10, 2019 53rdrace meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 66 Degrees Cloudy 60% of rain Wind: N 5 to 10mph.
Post time: 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course C+3, track listed:
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190310_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3  Golden Four (2-1) Trainer is hovering at 4% winners while Rispoli is at 6%, closed well in his last at this distance but was beaten by Green Card who had to overcome all kinds of trouble and still got up.
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 335 (Winners: 2nd & 7th, Second: 11th)
Race 2  Holy Unicorn (5-2)
Race 6  Grand Harbour (6-1)
Race 226 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 5th, Second: 4th & 6th)
Race 3  Seventy Seventy (7-1)
Race 417 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 3rd)
Race 3  Jimson The Dragon (8-1)
Race 6  Junzi (27-1)
Race 268 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 7th)
Race 7  Flying Godspell (8-1)
Race 290 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, Second: 1st)
Race 9 Winning Faith (9-1)
Race 356 (Winners: 1st, 6th & 12th, Second: 2nd, 3rd,8th & 14th)
Race 11 Super Hero (46-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7  Star Superior (12-1)
Race 9  Elusive State (even)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Gunnison (5-2)
Race 3 Chairman Lo (3-1)
Race 4 Fun Times (9-5)
Race 6 Bond Elegance (7-1)
Race 7 Borntoachieve (9-2)
Race 8 Pingwu Spark (7-1)
Race 8 What Else But You (5-2)
Race 8 Morethanlucky (21-1)
Race 9 Elusive State (even)
Race 10 Prance Dragon (6-1)
Race 11 Unicorn Jewellery (9-1)
Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 8 Pingwu Spark (7-1)
Race 8 What Else But You (5-2)
Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 1 Wishful Thinker (4-5)
Race 5  Goko (5-2)
Race 8 Simply Brilliant (5-2)
Race 8  Rise High (5-1)
Race 8 Morethanlucky (21-1)
Class specialists running tonight:
None
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 8 Rise High (5-1) In his first try at the downtown course after winning three out of ten at Sha Tin was bet down to the 4-5 favourite after not racing since Last November. He was forwardly placed going into the first turn (where you wanted to be that night), heading out of the turn was taken back off of it and allowed the eventual winner grab control of the pace and it was a chase to the wire afterwards. In the stretch with 250 metres to go Zac had to take up on him when Insayshable and Fortune Booth came together, Purton really didn't get into too much after the incident wrapping up on him in the last 75 metres, look for him back at the bigger track next out. Drew might be the toughest Class 1 race so far this year, probably more to the equivalent to a GIII race.
Past watch list runners running tonight:
None
Key Plays:
Race 10 Hard Promise (8-1)
Race 11 Xiang Bai Qi (7-1)
Longshots:
Race 2 Bring It On (15-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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03-09-2019, 11:06 PM
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#613
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 3/10/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 11 races at Sha Tin with 7 to be run on Turf & 4 on Dirt:
(Classes from top to bottom) (2)-Class-1, (2)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4
Post Time Race #1 11:30 PM SUN EST
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1200M C1 (6F)T
.2-1-3 W/ -------
11:30 PM EST
R#2- 1800M C4 (9F)D
.5-8-7 W/ 4-3-10
.12:00 AM EST
(May sub (4, 3, 10) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.
.3-6-8 W/ 10-9-7
..12:30 AM EST
(May sub (10, 7, 9) into top 3 & (2 or 4) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T
..9-2-7 W/ 8-2-1
....1:00 AM EST
(May sub (8, 2, 1) into top 3 & (6) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T
..12-11-6 W/ 9-3-5
.1:30 AM EST
(May sub (9, 3, 5) into top 3 & (10) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#6- 1200M D4 (6F)D
..5-1-11 W/ 2-12-6
..2:00 AM EST
(May sub (2, 12, 6) into top 3 & (4) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#7- 1200M C4 (6F)D
...3-11-8 W/ 7-4-12
..3:35 AM EST
(May sub (7, 4, 12) into top 3 & (2) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#8- 1600M C1 (8F)T
..3-1-4 W/ 5-2-9
....4:05 AM EST
(May sub (5, 2, 9) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#9- 1650M C2 (8.25F)D
2-11-1 W/ 10-7-9
.4:35 AM EST
(May sub (10, 7, 9) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#10- 1200M C2 (6F)T....5-1-7 W/ 12-2-11
..5:10 AM EST
(May sub (12, 2, 11) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#11- 1600M C3 (8F)T....2-11-6 W/ 13-5-4
..5:45 AM EST
(May sub (13, 5, 4) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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03-09-2019, 11:36 PM
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#614
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,001
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Quote:
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R#1- 1200M C1 (6F)T
.2-1-3 W/ -------
11:30 PM EST
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2-4-3-1 Dutch Win 20% Profit Margin-Passed /
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03-09-2019, 11:42 PM
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#615
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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1st four horse race at Sha Tin in 8 years...
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Posting Rules
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Curling Luxury (22-1)
