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04-10-2019, 12:51 AM
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#736
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/10/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 7:15 AM WED EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1000M C5 (5F)T
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.2-5-3 W/ 4-1----
...7:15 AM
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T
.....6-1-3 W/ 12-2-11
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7:45 AM
R#3 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...8-2-3 W/ 12-10-6
.8:15 AM
R#4- 1000M C3 (5F)T
.....2-5-4 W/ 1-7----
..8:45 AM
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
.....9-8-12 W/ 3-7-5
..
9:15 AM
R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T
....4-9-2 W/ 4-10-11
..9:45 AM
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
....7-5-4 W/ 2-1-3
....10:15 AM
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..8-6-9 W/ 4-12-3
...10:50 AM
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04-10-2019, 12:56 PM
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#737
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
R#1- 1000M C5 (5F)T…….2-5-3 W/ 4-1---- …...7:15 AM
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6-3-9-2– Dutch Loss 74% Margin/
Quote:
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...6-3-12 W/ 2-11-1 – Sub #12 (w/solid action) for #1 (w/limited play) ….…7:45 AM
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12-6-2-10– Dutch Win 34% Margin-Passed / $13.80 Quinella & $335.00 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#3– 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...8-2-6 W/ 3-12-10 - Sub #6 (w/solid Late action) for #3 (w/mediocre action) ….8:15 AM
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8-3-6-2– Dutch Win 62% Margin / $13.80 Quinella & $84.80 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#4- 1000M C3 (5F)T….....2-5-4 W/ 1-7---- ……..8:45 AM
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5-6-1-8– Dutch Win 41% Margin - Passed/
Quote:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....9-8-5 W/ 12-3-7 - Sub #5 (the betting favorite) for #12 (only mediocre action) …..…9:15 AM
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5-7-12-9– Dutch Win 78% Margin / $9.40 Quinella & $208.20 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T…....4-9-2 W/ 4-10-11 …..9:45 AM
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2-10-4-8– Big Dutch Win 127% Margin / $31.20 Quinella & $198.60 Triple / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…....7-5-4 W/ 2-1-3 …....10:15 AM
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7-6-3-4– Dutch Win 46% Margin - Passed/
Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..8-6-9 W/ 4-12-3 …...10:50 AM
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8-3-7-2– Dutch Win 74% Margin / $94.00 Quinella
It was another very profitable card. There were a few obvious substitutions due to the tote action. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 54% and came from hitting 4 of 5 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas and Triples.
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04-13-2019, 08:21 PM
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#738
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,796
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. April 14, 2019
63rd race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Thunderstorms 80% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.
Post time: 12.30am ET, 9.30pm PT. Rail: Course C, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190414_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 Young Glory (7-2) Has been away from the track since early February with a lame front right leg and draws the 11 post in his comeback for a trainer that is 5 for 174 this season at Sha Tin.
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 500 (Winners: 7th & 11th, Second: 5th & 6th)
Race 4 Soccer Master (40-1)
Race 7 Marqula (18-1)
Race 7 Delight Express (50-1)
Race 7 Dashing Dart (6-1)
Race 464 (Winners: 2nd & 9th, Second: 6th & 12th)
Race 6 Yinchun Blitz (9-2)
Race 487 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 6th)
Race 8 Hard Promise (12-1)
Race 114 (Winners: 6th & 10th, Second: 1st & 2nd)
Race 10 Southern Superstar (7-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Otouto (5-1)
Race 11 Superich (7-1)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Aethero (4-5)
Race 3 Marvelous World (7-1)
Race 6 Flying Victory (6-1)
Race 10 Earth Trilogy (8-1)
Race 11 Superich (7-1)
Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 11 Superich (7-1)
Distance specialists running tonight:
None
Class specialists running tonight:
None
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 9 Big Party (1-2) In his third lifetime start after an easy 2 length win on the dirt at Class 4, drew the rail in his first try at Class 3 and the betting public thought enough of him to be bet down as the even money favourite. He broke very professionally and allowed van Niekerk to settle right off the lead entering the turn without having him lose any momentum, moved to the front passing the tiring cheap speed at the 300 metre mark with any encouragement. He eventually won for fun without even having a cross thrown his way, he picks up 13 rating points so hell get one more go at Class 3 and off this effort there looks to be plenty left in the tank for this runner.
Past watch list runners running tonight:
None
Key Plays:
Race 4 Voyage Star (9-2)
Race 10 Unicorn Jewellery (10-1)
Longshots:
Race 9 Racing Fighter (10-1)
Race 11 Beauty Spirit (14-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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04-14-2019, 12:04 AM
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#739
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 4/14/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 11 races at Sha Tin and all will be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5, (1)-Class-6
Post Time Race #1 12:30 AM SUN EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This mornings card looks wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1000M C6 (5F)T
.. 7-5-4 W/ 6-----
....12:30 AM
R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T.
3-8-1 W/ 11-4-6 .
...1:00 AM
R#3 1000M C4 (5F)T
. 1-4-12 W/ 3-8-7
...1:30 AM
R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T.
. 10-11-1 W/ 6-3-12
.2:00 AM
R#5- 1800M C5 (9F)T
.. 4-1-9 W/ 10-11-3
2:30 AM
R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T
.. 2-4-6 W/ 7-11-8
3:05 AM
R#7 1600M C4 (8F)T
.. 7-6-3 W/ 1-12-14 ...3:35 AM
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T
2-6-9 W/ 5-12-10 .
4:05 AM
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T..
4-5-1 W/ 3-12-6
..4:35 AM
R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T... 2-7-5 W/ 4-10-1
..5:10 AM
R#11- 1400M C2 (7F)T... 6-4-2 W/ 11-3-5
..5:45 AM
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04-14-2019, 12:39 AM
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#740
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
R#1- 1000M C6 (5F)T
. 7-5-4 W/ 6-----
...12:30 AM
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5-7-4-3 Dutch Win -10% Profit Margin-Passed / $4.20 Quinella & $13.40 Triple/ ALL of that one!
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04-14-2019, 12:50 AM
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#741
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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FYI -- my speed figures for race 4 -- these figures are from each horse's most recent race.
Race 4, April 14, 2019
I like 10-3-4. Not crazy about #11 despite the 2nd best last race figure.
Code:
1 82
2 95
3 103
4 102
5 96
6 95
7 71
8 101
9 99
10 112
11 107
12 84
Last edited by highnote; 04-14-2019 at 01:05 AM.
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04-14-2019, 01:06 AM
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#742
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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POST RACE UPDATE: Guess I should have listened to my figures. #11 won.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
FYI -- my speed figures for race 4 -- these figures are from each horse's most recent race.
Race 4, April 14, 2019
I like 10-3-4. Not crazy about #11 despite the 2nd best last race figure.
Code:
1 82
2 95
3 103
4 102
5 96
6 95
7 71
8 101
9 99
10 112
11 107
12 84
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04-14-2019, 01:10 AM
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#743
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T.
3-8-1 W/ 11-4-6 .
..1:00 AM
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11-9-10-8 Dutch Loss 89% Profit Margin / Good very late action on the Winner but No action on the LS Placer #9
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04-14-2019, 01:16 AM
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#744
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
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So how is the hammering of these horses in Hong Kong any different than in North America? How does a 10 yr Old who hasn"t won in 18 races, with a single 3rd in all that time win this race? Especially when all the money shows on him on the final flash he goes from 11-1 to 9-2, race 3 at Sha Tin tonight. No different than here, things go bump in the dark in Hong Kong also.
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04-14-2019, 01:22 AM
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#745
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE: R#3 1000M C4 (5F)T
. 1-4-12 W/ 3-8-10
..1:30 AM
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04-14-2019, 01:29 AM
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#746
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frost king
So how is the hammering of these horses in Hong Kong any different than in North America? How does a 10 yr Old who hasn"t won in 18 races, with a single 3rd in all that time win this race? Especially when all the money shows on him on the final flash he goes from 11-1 to 9-2, race 3 at Sha Tin tonight. No different than here, things go bump in the dark in Hong Kong also.
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Apparently you know very little about HK racing particularly about the Class 5 runners: (Always a wide open race)
When you see any entry getting hit hard in HK there's a World of difference in terms of the money involved.
Yes, the insider intentions are sometimes detectable, but don't get all excited about a single race being an example of everything that happens in HK!
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04-14-2019, 01:41 AM
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#747
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#3 1000M C4 (5F)T
. 1-4-12 W/ 3-8-10
..1:30 AM
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12-4-10-3 Dutch Win 32% Profit Margin-Passed / $14.60 Quinella & $311.60 Triple Bx ($1,552.80 Quartet)/ ALL of that one!
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04-14-2019, 01:42 AM
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#748
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
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Apr 14, 2019
1:30 AM Bet 31277002548010 HK - Sha Tin, Race 3, $2.00 TRI 12 / 1,3,4,6,8,10,12 / 1,3,4,6,8,10,12 $60.00
Got all of that one! Considering I know very little about Hong Kong racing!LOL
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04-14-2019, 01:52 AM
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#749
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frost king
Apr 14, 2019
1:30 AM Bet 31277002548010 HK - Sha Tin, Race 3, $2.00 TRI 12 / 1,3,4,6,8,10,12 / 1,3,4,6,8,10,12 $60.00
Got all of that one! Considering I know very little about Hong Kong racing!LOL
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Yeah you got it alright! I'm sure any idiot can post the winning entries after the race is over. I know its a lot easier that way!
But keep it going you might even post a typo and really look like an expert.
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04-14-2019, 02:01 AM
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#750
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
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You know Nitro, I have been following you for awhile, with all your supposed success at Hong Kong racing and all the money you have won, you should be retired as this is your personal bank account. The amount you can bet into these pools should be limitless on your part. You should be cashing 10K a night if not more, with your system. If i had something than worked, I wouldn't be sharing it with anyone. Maybe, it is just a show on your part. I posted an actual ticket from my ADW, with a real serial number. You have never posted a single ticket before or after the race has been one. You back fit the numbers to make yourself look successful. Otherwise, like I said, this place should be your personal ATM machine!
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