2019-2020 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)D……..…8-2-3 W/ 1-7-10……...3:35 AM .

7-4-12-9– Dutch Loss 166% Profit Margin / Some early action on the LS Placer #4

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#7– 1800M C2 (9F)T………..3-11-7 W/ 4-1-8 ……….4:05 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#7– 1800M C2 (9F)T………..3-11-7 W/ 4-1-8 ……….4:05 AM

7-8-11-6– Dutch Win 20% Profit Margin - Passed / $120.30 Quinella & $852.00 Triple Bx !

[Nitro]

UPDATE:
R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..…11-3-9 W/ 6-12-8….....4:35 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:
R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..…11-3-9 W/ 6-12-8….....4:35 AM

11-3-8-6– Dutch Win 38% Profit Margin - Passed / $11.40 Quinella & $137.80 Triple ($1,442.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T……..… 6-7-4 W/ 5-13-9…..….5:10 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T……..… 6-7-4 W/ 5-13-9…..….5:10 AM

7-3-5-10– Dutch Win 17% Profit Margin- Passed / No action on the Big LS Placer #3 @ 120/1

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T…...… 6-4-14 W/ 4-2-13 …….5:45 AM

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T…...… 6-4-14 W/ 3-2-13 …….5:45 AM

6-3-8-7– Dutch Win 36% Profit Margin- Passed / $22.80 Quinella with #3 was a typo that replaced #4

It turned out to be another fun and profitable card. Only1 out 2 Dutch Win bets provided just a break even result with limited plays. There were some very nice Verticals from the (6) Quinellas and (5) Triples with some good value that made it all worthwhile!.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 9, 2019
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Closers

Horses to watch for list:
Race 83
Precious Sweetie (60) Won for fun in his last race just before the summer break at a rating of 51 at Happy Valley as the even money favourite. In his first after the break he was again bet down as the chalk going 6 furlongs at the downtown track while drawing the four post. He broke well and was well placed behind the front running type Bullish Brother on the backside, the eventual winner All Wongchoy was placed directly in front of him sitting just off the speed's hind quarters. The three pulled even to each others at the top of the stretch, and the top two fought all the way to the wire with Precious Sweetie only to lose by a short head. Should have a little bit more in the tank for the stretch in his next try.

Race 85
First Responder (69) Had been away since May where he had been a beaten favourite in his previous two races. Top trainer John Moore gave Neil Callan a bone for this try and was bet down as the 4-1 third betting choice, and at the break he broke a little sideways and bumped Mr Picasso but soon recovered and was then rushed up to the lead, which the way the track was playing was not wthe place you wanted to be. Down the backside he sat just off the shoulder of the first time Hong Kong runner Realism, then at the top of the stretch he drifted out slightly and just didn't have the kick left to get home on top. Look for a switch to a better rider and a quick return to the track.


Horse to avoid next time out:
Race 86
Snap Fit (74) Had a perfect trip racing off the front on a track that was playing best for those type of runners, had to dig down to the bottom to get up at the wire. Playing that 4 in a row will be too much to ask.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. October 16, 2019… 11th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees 10% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20191016_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming


Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 Xiang Bai Qi (8-5) Trainer is still winless on the year after 47 tries and this runner isn’t much better, 0-18 in Hong Kong and after 11 races at this class level. He just finds ways to lose.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *792 (Winners: 5th & 7th, Second: 2nd & 4th)
Race 6 Happy Warrior (15-1)

Race *701 (Winners: 1st & 4th, Second: 3rd)
Race 8 Universal Go Go (11-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Curling Luxury (7-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 2 Best Smile (6-5) Was beaten by a very nice runner in Aquila in his debut after being scratched in the gate after flipping in his previous try at running. Was ncold at the windows after that incident when he did run in July but did go off as the even money favourite here after picking up the leading rider Purton for this out. Breaking on the rail he took a slight step forward at the start but quickly gathered himself up, after 400 metres he found himself on the lead dueling it out with Look Eras who does show speed from time to time but would rather run second and third at the line. Entering the turn Purton took him back off the lead but was able to keep him on the rail and with the way the track playing that night it was the place to be at. When he reached the 300 metre mark he recaptured the lead without any encouragement from his rider, with 50 to go he looked the winner but was caught right before the wire by second time starter Happy Swears for Ting who paid $130 to win, should have more in the tank in his next out to get him to the wire.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 7 Dancing Fighter (3-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 Best Smile (6-5)
Race 5 Tashidelek (3-1)

Longshot:
Race 3 Righteous Mate (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) – (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T……...….10-2-8 W/ 7-3-6…....7:15 AM

R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……......1-9-12 W/ 8-2-4…..…7:45 AM

R#3- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T …….3-12-1 W/ 2-7-4…....8:15 AM

R#4- 1800M C4 (9F)T…….…...4-9-5 W/ 2-7-6……....8:45 AM

R#5- 1800M C3 (9F)T……..…..4-11-12 W/ 3-2-8…...9:15 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T ……..….2-12-9 W/ 1-5-3………9:45 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T …….....4-9-2 W/ 7-11-12…. 10:15AM

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T……..7-12-6 W/ 1-10-11 …10:50AM
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T……...….10-2-8 W/ 7-3-6…....7:15 AM

5-11-3-2– Dutch Loss 38% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……......1-9-12 W/ 8-2-4…..…7:45 AM

7-9-11-10– Dutch Loss 32% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#3- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T ……3-12-10 W/ 2-6-4…....8:15 AM

11-3-6-12– Dutch Loss 48% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#4- 1800M C4 (9F)T…….…...4-9-5 W/ 2-7-6……....8:45 AM

5-8-9-6– Dutch Win 123% Profit Margin /

R#5- 1800M C3 (9F)T……..…..4-11-12 W/ 3-2-8…...9:15 AM

8-9-7-3– Dutch Loss 80% Profit Margin /

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T ……..….2-12-9 W/ 1-5-3………9:45 AM

3-12-9-1– Dutch Loss 159% Margin / $379.80 Quinella & $5,955.60 Triple & ($36,859.60 Quartet)/ ALL of that one!

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T …….....4-12-2 W/ 7-11-9…. 10:15AM

12-1-8-10– Dutch Win 44% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T……..7-12-6 W/ 9-10-11 …10:50AM

7-9-4-5– Dutch Win 37% Profit Margin - Passed / $10.60 Quinella / #9 was a sub for #1 which was Scratched


It was a sort of an oddball card with some strange results. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Loss margin of 18% and was hit from winning only 1 of 3 playable races. There was only 1 race that produced a huge Quinella and Triple.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 12, 2019
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None

Horses to watch for list:

Race 93
Harmony Victory (101) Was a beaten chalk in his first race after the summer break while getting in all types of trouble in that race, there was a big jockey change for this event in picking up defending riding champ Zac Purton. He again was bet down as the heavy favourite going off at 4-5, at the break he was just a step slow but with his running style it was very insignificant to the final outcome of the race. After 600 metres and everybody had settled into their running position he was racing near the rear chasing an average pace for the class level, heading into the turn he found himself a little farther back than he needed to be at 12 lengths off the front end. Halfway in the turn Zac took him off the 2 path and drifted out into the 5th lane to make his run to the wire, after switching to his proper lead at the 350 mark, he was reaching for the wire with every step he took, but just couldn't real in Savvy Six who had a perfect trip all the way around. After he came to the conclusion it was futile, Purton put the stick away with less than 50 metres to go, he then allowed him to gallop out properly which Purton very seldom does.

Race 96
Alcari (73) He has shown that he is not the biggest fan of Class 3 racing, but he did wake in his previous race making up almost five lengths on the leaders after travelling three wide in the turn. Now he got a little better post breaking from the rail, but that all dissipated when he stepped three lengths slow to the field. Soon after that Domeyer rushed him back into contention and settled mid-pack running down the backside, in the stretch he was all covered up with nowhere to go while the favourite Craig's Star who had a perfect trip was making his winning move. Finally at the 150 mark Alcari finally split the tiring Fantastic Fabio and the rail and re-broke and was gaining ground nearing the wire only to miss by a half a length. The class level thing really bothers me though.

Race 96
Guy Dragon (71) Has been away since last July but Purton thought enough of him to jump on in a pretty tough Class 3 race for the first time. The draw wasn't all that kind to him handing him the 10 post with not all that much running room until they head into the turn, at the start he took a slight leap which caused him to bobble and lost a little ground to the field afterwards. After 200 metres he found himself racing near the rear of the pack and then had to be slightly taken up when Gift Of Lifeline steadied in front of him, for the next 400 metres he fought Zac for the bit. At the top of the lane he was stuck behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go, Zac never even pulled out the persuader in the stretch, a total throw out of a race.

Horse to avoid next time out:

Race 96
Craig's Star (73) He had a perfect stalking trip while his main rivals were caught up in all kinds of trouble. He is still a runner who put in his normal situation likes to run behind others at the wire.

[hopbet]

I have put this horse in my STABLE. FYI this horse will be required a successful ( gate trial ) before his next start.

HOPBET