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Old 11-14-2017, 09:11 AM   #1
Teach
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Aqueduct: Wednesday, November 15

Reminder: There’s a 175 “Large,” three-day, Pick-6 carryover this afternoon, Wed., Nov. 15 at the “Big A”. I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s pool approaches 500 G’s. Race Four (estimated post time: 1:47 p.m.) starts the Pick-6.

Race One:

In the opener, an n3L claiming turf-route, I’m giving my nod to ULTIMATE CAUSE. First, this filly has a solid turf pedigree. Second, her dam, Supreme, was a stakes winner who produced 2 starters that included 2 winners and 2 turf winners. This filly won her last at Belmont over one month ago at today’s 8.5 furlongs distance. “The Aussie,” Brian Lynch, trains this Empire Maker-bred. Lynch does well with winners of their last race. He retains the services of jockey Nik Juarez. I look for this highly-priced Giant’s Causeway-bred to be forwardly placed as the field turns onto the front-straight. If all goes well, Juarez should have this Storm Cat-bred 4-year old mounting a strong stretch drive. Others: , ,

Race Two:

Does this filly have enough back-class to prevail in this 25K claiming sprint, n2L? I’m talkin’ ‘bout the deuce, ANNA RAE. Two years ago, as a 2-year old, this now 4-year old bay filly won at first asking up at The Spa; yet she hasn’t graced the winner’s circle since. However, it should be noted that at that 2015 Saratoga meet, she was entered in the Grade I Spinaway (the owners must have thought they had “any kinda horse”) and later, Belmont’s Grade I Frizette. This filly finished 4th in the Spinaway and 6th in The Frizette. Yet, in this field, in this company, with these horses… I believe she can prevail. The most capable Brad Cox trains (he’s putting the blinkers back on). Luis Saez is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Three:
I
n this MSW 6-panels turf sprint, I’m picking: CHARNLEY RIVER. This Aussie-bred shipped in from “Down Under” earlier in the year and has one race under his belt. This chestnut gelding finished 2nd in that one at Belmont about a month and a-half ago as a 7/2 shot against relatively similar MSW company. Well, he now draws an outside post that I believe will aid and abet his chances (less likelihood of getting bumped). Jose Ortiz is in the irons for Monsieur Christophe Clement. Clement does very well with horses that are receiving 2nd time Lasix. He also does well with horses that have been away from the races. I believe this 4-year old gelding has a solid chance of winning. Others: , ,

Race Four:

Here we go! Fasten your seatbelts. It’s Pick-6 time. As the Bee Gees would say, it’s all about: “Stayin’ Alive”. This race is a 32k claimer, one mile on the turf. My selection is my “Rhymin’ Simon Special”: GETONTHEBUSGUS. This Rudy Rodriguez trainee won her last about a month and a half ago at Belmont against better. If she runs back to that victory, she can also prevail here, today, at “The Big A”. This Warrior’s Reward-bred filly has faced better throughout her racing career. Her trainer, the aforementioned Rodriguez, does exceptionally well with horses that are dropping off a win, albeit with a limited sampling. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred should be positioned somewhere near the middle of the pack as the fillies race down the backstretch. Look for this 3-year old to mount a closing charge as the field reaches the top of the stretch. The top-notch jockey, Jose Ortiz, has the call. Others: , ,

Race Five:

BLUEGRASS SINGER, a Bluegrass Cat-bred 5-year old grey gelding, had a troubled trip in her last (the DRF didn’t mention it). This Storm Cat-bred gelding broke alertly from his inside post in his last on Oct. 20 at Belmont. He appeared -- in that first panel -- to be establishing a solid position near the rail when, all of the sudden, he was abruptly taken up by his jockey, Manny Franco. It appeared from the replay that this gelding clipped, or at least almost got clipped by the heels of the horse just in front of him, Anytime Anyplace. That steadying action early in the race appeared to take this Unbridled’s Song-bred out of his racing rhythm. As the field reached the top of the stretch, this gelding was behind a wall of horses. He ended up fading toward the rear of the pack. What I’m alluding to here is that if this gelding gets a cleaner trip (I believe he has a better starting post), I think he’s a contender. This gelding has certainly faced better in the past. Manny Franco reprises the ride for trainer Chris Englehart. Englehart does extremely well with horses that are making their second start for a trainer. Others: , ,

Race Six:

In this MSW for New York state-breds at one mile, I’m going to try to beat the presumed chalk with HONOR UP. This To Honor and Serve-bred 2-year old colt broke through the gate before the start of his last race on Sept. 27th at Belmont, but he was held tightly by the assistant starter and was quickly reloaded. What, if anything, was taken out of this colt before the start of that race, I don’t know. Yet, I’m sure it didn’t help. This colt did get the first call but remained behind the front runners by four to five lengths throughout the entire race; he ended up finishing 4th. Prior to that, this Bernardini-bred finished 2nd up at the Spa in MSW company going seven panels. I guess what I’m trying to say is that this colt has as chance of “upsetting the apple cart”. The Hall-of-Famer, Bill Mott, trains; Junior Alvarado reprises the ride. Others: , , .

Race Seven:

In the 7-panels allowance, I’m picking: PORTFOLIO MANAGER. This Harlan’s Holiday-bred bay colt was 3rd in this company in his last, a one-mile route at Belmont on September 9. In that one, this Harlan-bred was in contention but weakened late. Today’s cut-back to seven furlongs should go a long way to helping this 4-year old get his picture taken. “The king of Philadelphia” from Zydeco Country, “the Bayou Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons. Carmouche is particularly adept at getting his mounts into contention, early. Danny Gargan conditions this colt for Midwest Thoroughbreds. Gargan does exceptionally well with 2nd starts off a claim. He also does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. A solid recent work bolsters confidence. First-time blinkers may do the trick. Others: , ,

Race Eight:

In this OC New York state-bred route, n2x, my selection is: BROKEN ENGAGEMENT. I kept see-sawing back and forth between the 3 and the 6. Well, I finally landed on the 6. This Scat Daddy-bred tried the turf for the first time a little over one month ago at Belmont; however, this Johannesburg-bred bay gelding failed to hit the tote; it should be noted that he was passing tired horses. Well, this Elusive Quality-bred is back on the main, his preferred surface. I might mention that he would benefit from some moisture, but I don’t believe that any is in the offing. This 3-year old has two firsts and two seconds in seven lifetime starts. Look for this colt to be forwardly placed. Junior Alvarado is in the irons. Alvarado has a good record when riding in route races. Rudy Rodriguez is this colt’s conditioner; he does well with horses entered in allowance races. Others: , ,

Race Nine:

In the finale, a 40k maiden-claiming turf route, I’m picking, as my first choice, an AE, ORMOLU LU. If this Divine Park-bred 3 year-old filly draws in, I believe she’s the horse to beat. Yes, the outside starting post in a turf route can be difficult to overcome; yet I believe this Chester House-bred, if she starts, should be equal to the task. Look for this Indian Charlie-bred to be out and going when the gates unlatch. She should be playing: Catch-me-if-you-can. It’ll be up to the most capable Manny Franco to ration out this filly’s speed. This filly is taking a precipitous class drop from 90k MSW company to 40k claimers. That alone should serve as a wake-up call. I might even label it: “Suspicious”. This filly is also shortening up almost two panels off her last. That should be an added bonus. The filly’s trainer, Christophe Clement, does exceptionally well in both the 1st time maiden-claiming and maiden-to-maiden claiming categories. Others: , ,
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:08 PM   #2
Teach
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Pick-6 Thoughts:

I don’t normally look specifically at just the Pick-6, but with a 3-day carryover and the potential for a Huuuuuge payoff (Wouldn’t you like to be the only one), I’ll dissect the last six races with some suggested (everyone’s a free agent) strategies. In fact, I know several horseplayers who work the Pick-6, backwards; I do that myself, sometimes.

Race Four:

I see this race as having the possibility of knocking out a lot of people. That’s the last thing I, for one, wants to happen. I’m going with the four horses. The ones I posted earlier (that’s HOPONTHEBUSGUS, not “GET”) along with , , . Bottom line: As my friend “Bucko” would say, “In this race, it’s time to ‘buy insurance’”.

Race Five:

I’m gonna try and narrow it here. Two horses: my picks: BLUEGRASS SINGER with MARKET SENTIMENT. I like Rick Violette, Jr.; he’s an excellent trainer, esp. with horses that have been on the shelf for prolonged periods of time. My only concern is (nothing personal): Can the apprentice, Hector Diaz, Jr., get the job done? If Diaz performs up to his capabilities, this horse is “a player”.

Race Six:

I believe there are two horses here. My top pick, HONOR UP and the Todd Pletcher entrant with Johnny V. in the irons, AUDIBLE.

Race Seven:

PORTFOLIO MANAGER is my top pick, along with SHADOW RIDER; he’s been so consistent, lately. And as a “saver,” a medium-longshot: FORGE.

Race Eight:

If you’re still alive, it’s white-knuckles, nitty-gritty time. Four down and two to go. I personally believe it’s two horses here: BROKEN ENGAGEMENT and CAN YOU DIGGIT (Yes, I Can).

Race Nine:

By now, if you’re alive, your heart’s probably racing. You may need a little libation to calm your nerves. I’ve chosen ORMULU LU. But she has to draw in. We won’t know that until tomorrow. As my alternative, I’ve picked the SUBIC BAY. I like Luis Saez on the grass. George Weaver’s a solid trainer.

So, this is how I’ve conditioned, as matters now stand (not knowing the scratches), my Pick-6 ticket:
R4: , , ,
R5: ,
R6: ,
R7: , ,
R8: ,
R9: ,
As always, I wish you the best of luck.
__________________
Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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