Better late than never...my take on the Preakness... - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 10:25 AM

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rastajenk · 05-19-2012, 11:33 AM

I just read a similar opinion by Byron King in the Form. I could be swayed. Two weeks ago Bode's Beyer of 108 seemed much the best. Now it looks more like an aberration. Absent that, and the rest are all in the same zip code. The Derby wiseguy pick might like different surroundings. Intriguing.

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 11:38 AM

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.

I know, I know...I probably just made it a lock that CC wins today...

But seriously, if there ever was an "in and out" pattern on a horse, this one is it. The Derby was his IN. Today, he definitely looks like an OUT.

If anyone reading my opinion on the Preakness comes away with one thing today, please let it be that you won't be putting Creative Cause on top of any of your tickets.

It's horses like Creative Cause where I wish I had the ability to book bets on him...

lamboguy · 05-19-2012, 11:43 AM

i have no idea why DADDY NOSE BEST is even in this race, so i probably just put him in the winners circle.

sentimentally i want WENT THE DAY WELL, my partner sold the mare of this horse. unfortunately they don't pay on sentiments.

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i have no idea why DADDY NOSE BEST is even in this race, so i probably just put him in the winners circle.

I'd be very interested in hearing more on why you think this.

lamboguy · 05-19-2012, 11:50 AM

i just think that the SUNLAND DERBY was a bogus race, he looked overmatched in the DERBY, and ran that way. i just wonder why he is going to run any better today?

i know that the barn loved the horse for the derby, so there might have been some excuse for him that we don't know.

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i just think that the SUNLAND DERBY was a bogus race, he looked overmatched in the DERBY, and ran that way. i just wonder why he is going to run any better today?

It's a valid opinion, and I am by no means stating he is the best horse in the race. But, given what I expect his price to be, I feel he will offer me the best bang for my buck in this field.

lamboguy · 05-19-2012, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's a valid opinion, and I am by no means stating he is the best horse in the race. But, given what I expect his price to be, I feel he will offer me the best bang for my buck in this field.

he will be about 5-1 on that horse and way over bet for me to get involved in him, everyone thinks he's the horse today.

Saratoga_Mike · 05-19-2012, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

By the way, I will categorically state that Creative Cause has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this race. He can finish in the tri and super, but he absolutely will not win.

I know, I know...I probably just made it a lock that CC wins today...

But seriously, if there ever was an "in and out" pattern on a horse, this one is it. The Derby was his IN. Today, he definitely looks like an OUT.

If anyone reading my opinion on the Preakness comes away with one thing today, please let it be that you won't be putting Creative Cause on top of any of your tickets.

It's horses like Creative Cause where I wish I had the ability to book bets on him...

I thought CC ran the second best race in the Derby (besides Bode). I don't buy the hot-and-cold theory on him. I think it's a Bode/CC exacta box. I don't think Daddy hits the board. I guess I don't have an orignial thought on the race, because I totally agree with Crist and Beyer's take on the race. Good luck.

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

he will be about 5-1 on that horse and way over bet for me to get involved in him, everyone thinks he's the horse today.

I'd be pretty shocked if he were 5-1...Bode and IHA will take the bulk of the money...CC will get action...DNB at 5-1? No way...but then again, I just need over 4-1, so 5-1 will be just fine by me...

lamboguy · 05-19-2012, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'd be pretty shocked if he were 5-1...Bode and IHA will take the bulk of the money...CC will get action...DNB at 5-1? No way...but then again, I just need over 4-1, so 5-1 will be just fine by me...

he is third choice on the probable daily doubles from the BLACK EYED SUSIE yesterday.

you know as well as any that anything can happen in horse racing, and ASSMUSSEN has a history of winning with horses that looks like this one in this race. and when STEVE enters, he means business.

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

he is third choice on the probable daily doubles from the BLACK EYED SUSIE yesterday.

You mean Pimlico Special...I wasn't aware he was third choice in the DD...in fact, I've been a bit out of it this week as my life has been impacted by ping-ponging between jury duty and my real job...luckily, they settled the case on Friday...lol

sammy the sage · 05-19-2012, 12:54 PM

somebody's ON something...P.A. will GET way more THAN 5-1...

(Alternation, No. 8) with:

1. Tiger Walk, $681.60

2. Teeth of the Dog, $417.20

3. Pretension, $1,163.60

4. Zetterholm, $475.80

5. Went the Day Well, $62.20

6. Creative Cause, $71

7. Bodemeister, $34

8. Daddy Nose Best, $169

9. I’ll Have Another, $45

10. Optimizer, $744.40

11. Cozzetti, $564.60

PaceAdvantage · 05-19-2012, 12:56 PM

Thanks for that sammy...fifth choice...yeah, I'd say I'm going to get more than 5-1....

raybo · 05-19-2012, 12:59 PM

Here's my rankings for today, in grade order:

I think the trouble "forced in, steadied" makes the 8 look better in this company. The 4 is a little scary, IMO, as is the 1 (although I don't hold much confidence in his winning the race, the early pace will have to be hotly contested and fast for him to have his chance.