Maidens on a sloppy track - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Half Smoke · 10-25-2023, 10:01 AM

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in another thread a poster indicated he likes to bet against the fave when it's a Maiden race in the slop

that certainly seems logical

it certainly seems that an inexperienced horse could have trouble in the slop

as far as I know they don't work out in it

so what say you_________?

is a Maiden fave in the slop more likely to lose than faves in other races__?

assuming that he or she hasn't raced in the slop before and done well

I'm aware that Maiden faves overall do not lose more often than other faves

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46zilzal · 10-25-2023, 10:15 AM

Speed improves in the slop...MORE so if it is COLD as well.

deelo · 10-25-2023, 10:29 PM

Maidens can't be trusted to pass so when it's sloppy they REALLY can't be trusted to pass.

Saratoga · 10-26-2023, 08:31 AM

maidens are ....trouble

maidens in the slop......more trouble

I even tried Sires in the slop..........double trouble

Bottom Line .....use side money or pass

RonTiller · 10-26-2023, 11:21 AM

Maiden races = Maiden Claiming + MSW + Waive Maiden Claiming + Maiden Optional Claiming

Time Period = 2023 to present

Favorites in Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Sloppy, Muddy or Wet-Fast

Favorites who won = 222
Total Races = 561
Favorite Win % = 39.6

Favorites in Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Fast

Favorites who won = 2249
Total Races = 5784
Favorite Win % = 38.9

Not a big enough sample size?

Time Period = 2020 to present

Favorites in Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Sloppy, Muddy or Wet-Fast

Favorites who won = 1313
Total Races = 3368
Favorite Win % = 38.9

Favorites in Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Fast

Favorites who won = 10,334
Total Races = 26,553
Favorite Win % = 38.9

Ah, but what about age? Surely that makes a big difference.

Time Period = 2020 to present

Favorites in 2YO Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Sloppy, Muddy or Wet-Fast

Favorites who won = 257
Total Races = 711
Favorite Win % = 36.1

Favorites in 2YO Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Fast

Favorites who won = 21794
Total Races = 5885
Favorite Win % = 37.0

Favorites in 3YO and up Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Sloppy, Muddy or Wet-Fast

Favorites who won = 1056
Total Races = 2657
Favorite Win % = 39.7

Favorites in 3YO and up Maiden races where the track condition is listed as Fast

Favorites who won =8155
Total Races = 20,668
Favorite Win % = 39.5

Ron Tiller
HDW

castaway01 · 10-26-2023, 12:47 PM

Brilliant stuff Ron.

I think any of the variation in maidens not being able to run in the slop is balanced by the often-smaller fields in the slop. In the end, as Ron shows to a remarkable degree, it all evens out.

RonTiller · 10-26-2023, 03:54 PM

Normally I would post Impact Value, which takes into account field size. I'm really busy today though and didn't have the time to do that. This only took 5 minutes. You've now got me curious whether this is due to field size. I may check that out Friday and post the results once I get caught up.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Half Smoke · 10-26-2023, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonTiller

Normally I would post Impact Value, which takes into account field size. I'm really busy today though and didn't have the time to do that. This only took 5 minutes. You've now got me curious whether this is due to field size. I may check that out Friday and post the results once I get caught up.

Ron Tiller
HDW

thank you for the excellent info

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Saratoga · 10-26-2023, 05:08 PM

All those stats add up to....your still losing!!!

4 x $4 = $16

10 x $2 = $20

RonTiller · 10-27-2023, 11:39 AM

Here's more detail on the sample from 2020 to present:

Code:

        Starts	Wins 	Win%	ROI	IV	Avg Field Size
OFF	3368	1319	39.16	0.84	2.74	7.55
FAST	26582	10343	38.91	0.84	2.72	7.70

Nearly identical Impact Values
Slightly smaller average field sizes for OFF tracks

Maybe some of the minor variation is sample size related (al too often this is the case)

This is the exact same query but going back to 2000 up to present:

Code:

        Starts	Wins 	Win%	ROI	IV	Avg Field Size
OFF	32656	12132	37.15	0.84	2.97	8.177915
FAST	247544	92433	37.34	0.84	2.99	8.416075

Overall, not much here. I would not be much inclined to change my assessment of maiden favorites based on track condition.

Ron Tiller
HDW

lefty359 · 10-27-2023, 12:04 PM

Over the years, favs of all races have had a win pct that hovered around
32-33 pct. Is it higher now or is that just perception?

Saratoga · 10-27-2023, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lefty359

Over the years, favs of all races have had a win pct that hovered around
32-33 pct. Is it higher now or is that just perception?

A little off...

Post time favs since 2021

lefty359 · 10-28-2023, 02:54 AM

Thanks, Saratoga.

Half Smoke · 10-28-2023, 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonTiller

Normally I would post Impact Value, which takes into account field size. I'm really busy today though and didn't have the time to do that. This only took 5 minutes. You've now got me curious whether this is due to field size. I may check that out Friday and post the results once I get caught up.

Ron Tiller
HDW

what exactly does Impact Value mean_______?

for example - 2.74 IV - what does it mean__________?

thanks

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