Distance Travelled

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Stealing a post from our great friend CJ on twitter/x. (Hope he doesn't mind. )

No one is surprised by the 6,608 feet that BJ Hernandez mapped out for Mystiik Dan. The patience it took to guide him around was masterful, capped with a squeeze through on the rail saving every bit of ground possible.

Only 6,600 feet in a mile, and he gave up just 8 feet with the shortest trip of anybody. Trips and rides are essential in a 20 horse field, and BJ aced the field on Saturday.

Of note is the 6,666 feet that Resilience took on with a wide trip and yet still hung around for 6th.

Really not much of an excuse for Fierceness. Pace wasn't ridiculously hot and he got a decent trip from the 17 hole.

Twitter

[five-eighths]

According to that chart of distance traveled and lengths behind

Forever Young should’ve beat Sierra Leone by 2 lengths with Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom battling it out for 3rd, 3 lengths behind the

[denniswilliams]

Tough to fully trust the GPS figures when they butchered the running line of Sierra Leone.

[bisket]

Going into the race I thought it was a better than average possibility with his post Mystik Dan could get that trip. My best guess was he was a better bet for place or show. I always box because racing luck is profitable in this scenario. Racing luck pays when you have the horse everyone else uses in the back end of verticals, on top. When Dan finishes second and third I get paid like everyone else. I thought Dan was sitting on a good race like in the Southwest. There was proof that I overlooked that Fierceness was a cream puff. Many handicappers hung that analysis on Dan about the Southwest. Yes that’s a conclusion you could make, but he was also sitting on a top effort in the Southwest that I overlooked. A little racing luck and Dan is as good as that 101 in the Southwest at 1 1/4 mile. I feel like he needed racing luck because I’m still not sure he can get this distance in Gade 1 company without that assistance. He’s likely to be over bet and up the track in the Belmont. He has a better chance at collecting money in the Preakness.

[Roaring Good Time]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Stealing a post from our great friend CJ on twitter/x. (Hope he doesn't mind. )

Of note is the 6,666 feet that Resilience took on with a wide trip and yet still hung around for 6th.

Plus the outside was not the place to be late in the card.

I read where Bill Mott said he thought ten panels might be too much for him. I don't think that's right. I'd like to see him take the blinkers off and go in the Belmont.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by bisket

Going into the race I thought it was a better than average possibility with his post Mystik Dan could get that trip. My best guess was he was a better bet for place or show. I always box because racing luck is profitable in this scenario. Racing luck pays when you have the horse everyone else uses in the back end of verticals, on top. When Dan finishes second and third I get paid like everyone else. I thought Dan was sitting on a good race like in the Southwest. There was proof that I overlooked that Fierceness was a cream puff. Many handicappers hung that analysis on Dan about the Southwest. Yes that’s a conclusion you could make, but he was also sitting on a top effort in the Southwest that I overlooked. A little racing luck and Dan is as good as that 101 in the Southwest at 1 1/4 mile. I feel like he needed racing luck because I’m still not sure he can get this distance in Gade 1 company without that assistance. He’s likely to be over bet and up the track in the Belmont. He has a better chance at collecting money in the Preakness.

When he loses the Preakness he won't run in the Belmont. Of course he has a better chance of collecting money in the Preakness there are only two horses that are both talented and sitting on big races, Muth and Imagination. The rest of the field leaves a lot to be desired. I watched the Arkansas Derby again and he didn't have any excuses despite what some say or the chart where he was bothered. It was extremely minor at best.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by zico20

[/B]

When he loses the Preakness he won't run in the Belmont. Of course he has a better chance of collecting money in the Preakness there are only two horses that are both talented and sitting on big races, Muth and Imagination. The rest of the field leaves a lot to be desired. I watched the Arkansas Derby again and he didn't have any excuses despite what some say or the chart where he was bothered. It was extremely minor at best.

McPeek gave himself away in the press conference after the race. Quote, “I don’t care about my win percentage. I put horses into a race to learn”. The owners said, “Kenny says a race is worth 3 workouts”. Mystik Dan wasn’t in the Ark Derby to win. He just needed points…. Also a quote from McPeek. The two races between his 96 Beyer 5 1/2 furlong win, and 101 Beyer Southwest he wasn’t in the race to win. He wasn’t in the Ark Derby to win. He was there to get in the derby, as well as get ready for the derby. That’s the way horses were trained when I cut my teeth handicapping. It was at first frustrating for me because I didn’t see it before the Southwest. It was also refreshing to see because that’s why he was comfortable running on the rail. I’ve never seen a Pletcher horse comfortable running the rail. Most horses aren’t trained like that today.

[wiretowire68]

The day he won the Southwest, it shows you that the horse had an excellent chance, in my speed analysis I use based on Fastest #, how he has run in a cycle if a horse is moving into stretching out or cutting back. He showed that the extra panel he would be capable to get the distance because of how he pulled away in that race.

I have used that type of angle which works outstanding in 7 furlongs or a 1 mile because when horses pull away mid stretch energy will be good for next time out. or 2nd time out off a layoff. I caught Spun Hard in the BC Mile back before the pandemic whereby he had opened in the stretch and had won easily at Parx and he came back did it again and he beat some nice horses that day at 8-1 ..