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Old 04-25-2019, 10:16 AM   #1
Gold Medal
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Has anybody tried out the Betfair betting exchange ???

I know its only legal in New Jersey but was watching the promo for it on TVG where the discussed all the various betting options and it seemed really interesting.

Does anybody have any actual experience betting on the exchange ? Did you find it easier to make money than with standard parimutuel wagering ?
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Old 04-25-2019, 06:34 PM   #2
Some_One
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Originally Posted by Gold Medal View Post
I know its only legal in New Jersey but was watching the promo for it on TVG where the discussed all the various betting options and it seemed really interesting.

Does anybody have any actual experience betting on the exchange ? Did you find it easier to make money than with standard parimutuel wagering ?
Easier to make money? It won't change you magically from a -ROI player to a plus ROI player, but it should help your money go longer.
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Old 04-26-2019, 09:13 AM   #3
castaway01
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Originally Posted by Gold Medal View Post
I know its only legal in New Jersey but was watching the promo for it on TVG where the discussed all the various betting options and it seemed really interesting.

Does anybody have any actual experience betting on the exchange ? Did you find it easier to make money than with standard parimutuel wagering ?
It's a fun alternative to have and at times you can snag a good price, but the people/bots are pretty sharp. I suppose the best value would be if you don't like a low-odds horse and can "lay" that horse, but then that's true in the mutual pools too.

The betting during the race is also fun, but again, you have to be lightning fast and I found that faster people than me were sucking the value out. I have heard some here say they wait for a horse to run off before the race, then cover all the bets on that horse. The problem is, you're going to be laying a lot of 40-1 and 60-1 bets. You only need to be wrong once to wipe out your profits for a long while.

If you're a straight, grind-it-out win bettor AND they cover your tracks AND you don't bet big, you're probably getting better odds than in the mutual pools. If you like exotic wagering or multi-race bets (which happen to be my favorites) then exchange wagering offers no value.
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Old 04-26-2019, 01:06 PM   #4
Gold Medal
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Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
It's a fun alternative to have and at times you can snag a good price, but the people/bots are pretty sharp. I suppose the best value would be if you don't like a low-odds horse and can "lay" that horse, but then that's true in the mutual pools too.

The betting during the race is also fun, but again, you have to be lightning fast and I found that faster people than me were sucking the value out. I have heard some here say they wait for a horse to run off before the race, then cover all the bets on that horse. The problem is, you're going to be laying a lot of 40-1 and 60-1 bets. You only need to be wrong once to wipe out your profits for a long while.

If you're a straight, grind-it-out win bettor AND they cover your tracks AND you don't bet big, you're probably getting better odds than in the mutual pools. If you like exotic wagering or multi-race bets (which happen to be my favorites) then exchange wagering offers no value.
Thanks for all the good info
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Old 04-26-2019, 08:30 PM   #5
flatstats
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We have had Betfair in the UK for 18 years now. Here's a general observation:

Value
There is no doubt that the prices you can get are better value. Books are around 3%, which is much better than bookmaker SP (starting price) and way much better than our Tote (with it's crazy 19.25% track take).

Advantages
You can take a fixed price. You can back a horse at 3.50 (2.5/1) and that is what you will get paid out on even if the horse steams into 2.10 (1.1/1). Of course the horse could drift and you lose out but generally winners would tend to shorten not drift.

You can back multiple horses in the same race and instantly see your position.

You can lay horses to lose. If you think a hot favourite can not win from a poor stall position, or if the jockey is a chump, or the trainer has targeted the wrong race you can get some great value in beating the crowd and laying a horse.

You can back in-running. After the off your horse may go up or down in price and you can stake accordingly to "green up" and guarantee a profit.

e.g. You think a horse will run a good early speed but fade in the last furlong. You can back it at 25.00 at $15 and then put up a lay bet for 10.00 at $20.00. If both bets are matched you are guaranteed a profit regardless if the horse wins or loses.

Disadvantages
Unscrupulous owners and trainers use the exchanges. You may find that an overlay is just too generous and you have no chance of winning from backing it.

You have to pay a starting rate of ~5% commission. This is ontop of the 1-4% over-round. It is true that the more you bet the less commission you will pay but there is a tipping point, in which you may start to get hit with a punitive premium charge.

The site is addictive and you can get into hell of a mess chasing your tail. The fact that you can back, and then lay, and back another horse, and then lay it and a few more others, and then do the same in-running can make you lose your sense of betting reality. It's a typical punters ruin - offering many outcomes; insurance; wuss bets.

Summary
Betfair exchange is a great betting medium for the serious punter - especially those that have been banned from sportsbooks. You are effectively trading against thousands of punters and Betfair just take a small percentage (big percentage if you are in premium charge zone). Those thousands of punters *will* be mug punters so you can get a good edge.

Never forget that there are modern day Benters who have servers within Betfair's premises. They have servers that are constanly scalping prices, and Betfair themselves have teams of programmers constanly scalping prices. There are also dozens of dodgy trainers and hundreds of dodgy racehorse owners who are cheating the prices.

But never forget that with all the technological and shenanigan forces that are out to take your money there are thousands of punters who are clueless, or have the wrong opinion and their back and lay offers are ripe for the picking.

Betfair

Last edited by flatstats; 04-26-2019 at 08:33 PM.
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Old 04-26-2019, 08:44 PM   #6
AltonKelsey
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flatstats , excellent post.



I suggest it be made into a sticky.
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Old 04-26-2019, 11:11 PM   #7
castaway01
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Good post FlatStats. I would add that my perspective would be from living in NJ and looking to bet primarily U.S. tracks. If you're betting on European racing, the liquidity issue is not there.

Also, you made a good point about the temptation to back yourself up and cover yourself is always there. Sure, some may be above that, but for the rest of us humans, it's easy to eat into your profits to the point they are barely there. That's great, a small profit, except you need a lot of those to offset the times your "saver" doesn't work, and it's the opposite of how I like to play the game. It's tempting to go back and forth looking for a better price though. Very tempting.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:28 AM   #8
biggestal99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flatstats View Post
We have had Betfair in the UK for 18 years now. Here's a general observation:

Value
There is no doubt that the prices you can get are better value. Books are around 3%, which is much better than bookmaker SP (starting price) and way much better than our Tote (with it's crazy 19.25% track take).

Advantages
You can take a fixed price. You can back a horse at 3.50 (2.5/1) and that is what you will get paid out on even if the horse steams into 2.10 (1.1/1). Of course the horse could drift and you lose out but generally winners would tend to shorten not drift.

You can back multiple horses in the same race and instantly see your position.

You can lay horses to lose. If you think a hot favourite can not win from a poor stall position, or if the jockey is a chump, or the trainer has targeted the wrong race you can get some great value in beating the crowd and laying a horse.

You can back in-running. After the off your horse may go up or down in price and you can stake accordingly to "green up" and guarantee a profit.

e.g. You think a horse will run a good early speed but fade in the last furlong. You can back it at 25.00 at $15 and then put up a lay bet for 10.00 at $20.00. If both bets are matched you are guaranteed a profit regardless if the horse wins or loses.

Disadvantages
Unscrupulous owners and trainers use the exchanges. You may find that an overlay is just too generous and you have no chance of winning from backing it.

You have to pay a starting rate of ~5% commission. This is ontop of the 1-4% over-round. It is true that the more you bet the less commission you will pay but there is a tipping point, in which you may start to get hit with a punitive premium charge.

The site is addictive and you can get into hell of a mess chasing your tail. The fact that you can back, and then lay, and back another horse, and then lay it and a few more others, and then do the same in-running can make you lose your sense of betting reality. It's a typical punters ruin - offering many outcomes; insurance; wuss bets.

Summary
Betfair exchange is a great betting medium for the serious punter - especially those that have been banned from sportsbooks. You are effectively trading against thousands of punters and Betfair just take a small percentage (big percentage if you are in premium charge zone). Those thousands of punters *will* be mug punters so you can get a good edge.

Never forget that there are modern day Benters who have servers within Betfair's premises. They have servers that are constanly scalping prices, and Betfair themselves have teams of programmers constanly scalping prices. There are also dozens of dodgy trainers and hundreds of dodgy racehorse owners who are cheating the prices.

But never forget that with all the technological and shenanigan forces that are out to take your money there are thousands of punters who are clueless, or have the wrong opinion and their back and lay offers are ripe for the picking.

Betfair
In jersey we pay 12% commission but no premium charge.

The bots of course are out there scooping up value with no chance for the regular punter ever to see that price.

I go into the graphs on a regular basis and marvel at the bots prices

But I will give fixed odds betting a huge thumbs up over tote betting.

In running betting is also great esp for jump racing.

Betfair rules.

Allan
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:40 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post

If you're a straight, grind-it-out win bettor AND they cover your tracks AND you don't bet big, you're probably getting better odds than in the mutual pools. If you like exotic wagering or multi-race bets (which happen to be my favorites) then exchange wagering offers no value.
You are describing me to the tee here. Who cares about 20% takeout exotics when you have 12% commission betfair.

And who cares what tracks betfair has the exchange for. You modify betting behavior to make money. And that what I bet horses for to make money.
Hell I bet the exchange on any track that is offered and make money.

Also betfair in jersey has some promotions that are really good. Refunds of losing bets, free 25 BSP bets on certain stake races (thank you thunder snow and win win win)

If you want a fair change at making money, betfair is the place you should bet if you are able.

Allan
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