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Old 04-14-2019, 04:49 AM   #766
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UPDATE: R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T..… 4-12-1 W/ 3-5-9……..4:35 AM
12-3-9-5– Dutch Win 18% Profit Margin-Passed / $33.20 Quinella & $551.20 Triple Bx ($2,263.60 Quartet)/ ALL of that one!
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:06 AM   #767
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UPDATE: R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T... 2-7-5 W/ 4-10-13 …..5:10 AM
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:25 AM   #768
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UPDATE: R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T... 2-7-5 W/ 4-10-13 …..5:10 AM
13-4-14-10– Dutch Loss 161% Profit Margin/ $60.40 Quinella Bx
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:41 AM   #769
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UPDATE: R#11- 1400M C2 (7F)T... 4-3-2 W/ 14-11-12 …..5:45 AM
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Old 04-14-2019, 06:03 AM   #770
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UPDATE: R#11- 1400M C2 (7F)T... 4-3-2 W/ 14-11-12 …..5:45 AM
4-1-14-3– Dutch Win 15% Profit Margin-Passed/ No action on the LS Placer #1

It turned out to be a half way decent card. The limited number of playable Dutch Win bets produced a loss of -26% hitting only 2 of 6 races. On a positive note there were quite a few Verticals hit with some decent value including a number of Quinellas & Triples.
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Old 04-15-2019, 02:41 PM   #771
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:23 PM   #772
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. April 17, 2019… 64th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ESE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190417_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 Last Kingdom (5-2) Has had two hard races in a row and still can’t find the winner’s circle, trainer is hovering at a 5% win rate with a rider at 3%, playing that he comes up with an empty tank in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 455 (Winners: 2nd & 5th, Second: 6th)
Race 1 Letsgofree (6-1)

Race 452 (Winners: 7th & 8th, Second: 2nd & 3rd)
Race 1 Kwaichung Brothers (27-1)

Race 490 (Winners: 8th & 9th, Second: 2nd)
Race 4 Shining On (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Look Eras (7-5)
Race 8 Amazing Satchmo (9-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 5 Blitzing (7-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 5 Blitzing (7-2)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Ballistic King (5-2) In his first race in Hong Kong after a nice short career in New Zealand drew the 12 post which is usually a death nail at The Valley and it reflected it in his odds with him going off at 87-1. He broke on top but soon afterwards was taken back by 5 pound bug-boy Mo and doing so forced him four wide in the short turn, in the turn for home he was three wide and drifted out to the 8 path entering the stretch. He made up good ground while racing on his wrong lead step until 100 metres to go, where he finally switched over and re-broke only missing by a half a length to Zac Purton on the favourite Fat Turtle who had a perfect trip sitting right off the hip of the pace setter Loving A Boom who tired to a well beaten ninth.

Race 6 Hasta Luego (16-1) Was bet down to a 4-5 favourite in his debut last time out going 5 furlongs at Sha Tin, and ran like a first timer, all over the track. Now he was entered for 6 furlongs and added a hood for to hopefully fix his gate problem, unfortunately he drew the rail. He broke on top and Moreira placed him on the lead with company heading into the turn while racing on the rail, halfway thru the turn Bingo who was racing three wide took over the lead while Wong on Triumphant Lord was taken back while being the meat in the sandwich. At the top of the lane he pulled back even with Bingo but as soon as he did so, the big favourite first timer out of the Frankie Lor barn Everyone's Joy engaged them and pulled away without any encouragement from Purton, all while that was happening Moreira was wrapping up on Hasta Luego and never asked him to put in any kind of effort. He's not the prettiest looking runner but should improve after showing more speed than he did in his first try, he has the look of a Happy Valley runner.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 Waldorf (2-1)
Race 5 Ballistic King (5-2)
Race 7 Turin Redstar (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Lucky Thought (11-1)
Race 4 Polymer Luck (12-1)
Race 6 Hasta Luego (16-1)
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Old 04-17-2019, 01:29 AM   #773
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/17/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…2-7-3 W/ 4-10-8 …...7:15 AM


R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…....6-1-3 W/ 12-2-11 ….7:45 AM


R#3–1200M C3 (6F)T….....5-7-2 W/ 2-9----- …...8:15 AM


R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....7-2-11 W/ 8-4-5 …..8:45 AM


R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….....3-2-6 W/ 5-9----…..…9:15 AM


R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…....1-7-3 W/ 6-10-11 …..9:45 AM


R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T...4-6-1 W/ 10-7-11 ….10:15 AM


R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..5-6-10 W/ 9-2-12 …...10:50 AM
.
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Old 04-17-2019, 05:44 AM   #774
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HK RACE 1

4 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 10 POSTED AT 545 AM

GOOD LUCK
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Old 04-17-2019, 09:14 PM   #775
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R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…2-7-3 W/ 4-10-8 …...7:15 AM
10-7/12-3– Dutch Loss 176% Margin/ $77.60 Quinella

Quote:
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…...6-1-3 W/ 12-2-11 ….…7:45 AM
8-1-7-3– Dutch Loss 13% Margin - Passed/

Quote:
R#3–1200M C3 (6F)T…...5-7-2 W/ 1-9----- …...8:15 AM
2-4-6-5– Dutch Win 51% Margin/

Quote:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....7-2-11 W/ 8-4-5 …..8:45 AM
9-5-1-4– Dutch Loss 45% Margin - Passed/
Quote:
R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….....3-2-6 W/ 5-9----…..…9:15 AM
5-3-8-1– Dutch Loss 88% Margin/ $34.10 Quinella

Quote:
R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…....1-7-3 W/ 6-10-11 …..9:45 AM
7-3-6-10– Dutch Win 52% Margin / $51.70 Quinella & $676.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T...4-6-1 W/ 10-7-11 ….10:15 AM
7-6-2-11– Dutch Loss 59% Margin/ $38.70 Quinella

Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..5-6-9 W/ 2-12-7 - #10 Scr. …...10:50 AM
7-12-2-6– Dutch Loss 49% Margin-Passed/ $88.30 Quinella & $676.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

It turned out to be a half way decent card. The Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Loss margin of -38%, and happened from hitting only 2 of 5 playable races. However, the highlights of the day came from boxing and hitting 6 out 8 Quinellas that provided a nice 95% Profit margin.
.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:36 PM   #776
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I followed along and did even better than that



All of that one !!!!


Keep up the amazing work
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:17 PM   #777
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What time is first post today US Eastern time? 1:00AM?
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:10 AM   #778
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Nvm I see it's Sunday night.
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Old 04-21-2019, 05:11 PM   #779
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. April 22, 2019… 65th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 82 Degrees Cloudy 40% of rain Wind: S 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190422_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 Ping Hai Treasure (5-2) Won his last easily while getting an easy lead and getting a 13 pound advantage over Grand Chancellor who ran second. Today he draws the 13 post with a shorter run to the first turn and three runners that break under him that also want to run on the lead.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 452 (Winners: 7th & 8th, Second: 2nd & 3rd)
Race 2 Massive Power (24-1)

Race 500 (Winners: 2nd, 7th & 11th, Second: 5th & 6th)
Race 6 Healthy Treasure (95-1)

Race 487 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 6th)
Race 10 Winston’s Lad (12-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Hay Run (9-1)
Race 6 King’s Man (19-1)
Race 9 Encore Boy (16-1)
Race 9 Winner Supreme (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 5 California Guncho (6-1)
Race 6 Clement Legend (11-1)
Race 9 Multimillion (8-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Ugly Warrior (9-5)
Race 9 Not Just Listening (12-1)
Race 10 Perfect Match (2-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 1 Clear Choice (9-2) After two impressive victories in a row he was finally rewarded with the high weight of 133 at The Valley in a Class 4 race going 1650 metres. He broke a little sideways but nothing that was very significant, unfortunately de Sousa didn't take advantage of the situation and was soon unable to get over to the rail and had to go two wide into the first turn. Heading into the short turn Lueng on the front runner Play to Win slowed the pace down and it began a chain reaction that forced de Sousa to take grab the reins and stopped his momentum costing him a length. On the backside he was forced to be taken up again losing another length of racing ground, then at the 500 metre mark Teetan on Seize The Spirit had to steady himself directly in front of Clear Choice which in turn forced him out to the four path in the turn. He finished gamely in the stretch even after all the issues he endured getting beat by a very nice Cinquante Cinq out the Yung barn. He was rewarded by not getting any handicap points and stays at 60 which will allow him to race at Class 4 again.

Race 5 Voyage Warrior (2-5) Was coming off a 6 3/4 length win in a barrier trial and was bet down here as the prohibitive favourite at the windows, and by the time the gates opened he had been bet down to 1-2. And he didn't disappoint his backers, he broke on top, went straight to the lead and drew off by 4 while being held under a tight grip by Teetan for the last 125 metres. As long as he stays healthy he's going to be a real nice runner in the future, he'll be short but he'll be a ATM machine.

Race 7 Fortune Booth () Was entered at Sha Tin where he hasn't the best of luck and drew a pretty tough Class 2 with Styling Beauty and Full Of Beauty in there with him. Thirty metres away from the gate he was pinched back to the rear when Refined Treasure and Water Diviner came together making him the meat in the sandwich, after that he refused to lower his head and raced rank all the way thru the turn. In the stretch, Chadwick had to shift him wider and wider looking for running room, then was taken up slightly at the 300 metre mark then again at the 150 pole stopping his momentum both times. Afterwards when room was there he re-broke and was gaining at the wire on the top two who had much easier trips.

Race 9 Encore Boy (16-1) Had been away from the races since February after facing much tougher than these at Class 2, was bet down to 9-2 as the second betting choice behind Coby Oppa who had won for fun two races back in his only try on the dirt. When the gates opened he was caught flat footed and as soon as he did leave the gate he fell to his knees losing his race right then and there. After traveling two wide in the turn Ho moved off the rail entering the stretch to the 5 path but soon flattened out. Throw this race totally out.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 6 Clement Legend (11-1)
Race 10 Perfect Match (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 8 Bear Slam (12-1)
Race 9 Enshrined (12-1)
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:42 PM   #780
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HK RACE 1

7 WITH 2 5 1 AND 2 5 1 WITH 7
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