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Old 12-15-2018, 11:56 AM   #106
elhelmete
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Please go back and read my posts where I have repeatedly stated that while even distribution of energy is an advantage, there are other factors, such as gaining position to avoid getting caught wide on turns, avoiding trouble, etc, involved which sometimes makes it wise to run a race inefficiently.
It's beyond "sometimes makes it wise..."

It's more a case of you're always going to be at an efficiency disadvantage so how do you mitigate it quickly and effectively throughout the running? Like being in the outside post in a 5.5f turf sprint, possibly near the crown of the course. You're not starting from a geometrically/physically efficient position. But physics still applies.
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Old 12-15-2018, 12:50 PM   #107
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I love threads like this. I have my own pace formula which is built into HSH. It is more an energy distribution formula than a "pace" number. I believe in energy efficiency but only in regards to today's race. Sometimes one horse is just fundamentally faster than the others and will win regardless of the pace of race. If I were to run a 50 yard dash against a bunch of 7th graders, let's rephrase, if I were to run a 50 yard dash against a bunch of 5 year olds I would win. (Once, and then I would need a nap) In many races as we all know the dynamics of the race play a part in the outcome and I look for the horse whose natural energy distribution is most efficient relative to the others. Yes a most efficient way to run would be the same speed all the way around but horses are not cars and are not ridden like cars. Everything I have every read a jockey say about racing is they get out of the gate as clean as they can, try and get a good position and then they just become passengers letting the horse find their natural stride. If you look at any set of PP's it is fascinating how many running lines for a horse are very similar. Especially the first 2 calls. The jock doesn't look at the running lines and say, "Oh this horse likes to run fourth or fifth, 5 lengths back so that's where I will position him". I don't know if is from ability or pecking order of the horses but they all find their own position. I think most horses have 1 "run" in them and the better horses have 2. The jocks internal clock seems to gauge how much energy the horse has relative to the running of the race and good ones know the right time to ask for more. I get a mental image of the inside of a watch or clock with many gears all finely tuned to work with each other. The mass of horses moving is like one large gear and the individual horses are like smaller ones each affecting the whole. I don't just focus on the "pace", who will get the lead etc. I look at the favorite or a recent high speed figure at the distance horse. Than look at his energy distribution and see if there are others with similar distributions and/or others with opposite distributions which may set them up at being more efficient for today's race. None of this is new just my take.



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Old 12-15-2018, 01:16 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Please go back and read my posts where I have repeatedly stated that while even distribution of energy is an advantage, there are other factors, such as gaining position to avoid getting caught wide on turns, avoiding trouble, etc, involved which sometimes makes it wise to run a race inefficiently.
Your comments in this topic remind me of an investment advisor who tells people to buy low and sell high. Until you can show the practical benefits of your physics knowledge vis-a-vis a handicapping advantage it will probably be time to file this under useless knowledge not applicable to handicapping (at this time).
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:09 AM   #109
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Because the principles governing efficiency in energy distribution apply to all surfaces, all distances, all species, all moving objects, including cars. The laws of physics apply to everything.
The related side issue that has come up is how the few "apparent" exceptions can be explained by referring to other variables, such as how the concept of momentum and variations in comfort pace zones allows for dirt sprints to seem to vary from efficient even energy distribution as seen more clearly in turf routes.

The central issue on this thread remains efficient energy distribution and how other factors influence it under different circumstances - surface, distance. This is the aspect that Class and myself are discussing here.

If we seem to be going off on a tangent, though still related, it can be moved to it's own thread. Depends on how limited the parameters of the discussion should be. Either way is fine with me.
So where was your pre-race analysis to demonstrate to use it in practice?
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Old 12-18-2018, 02:12 PM   #110
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I don't even buy the physics argument.

IMO, every track plays differently and they sometimes even change during the course of a day.

On some days if a feint hearted horse guns to the lead in fast pace it will have a good chance to wire and run the best figure of it's life and on other days the same tactic would cause him to be hopelessly doomed and eased.

We can argue physics and theory until we are blue in the face. I won't be able to tell you exactly what's impacting these things but there's no way the formula for efficient running is fixed at "even paced" across tracks, surfaces, or even days.
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Old 12-18-2018, 02:14 PM   #111
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So where was your pre-race analysis to demonstrate to use it in practice?
Mine was on a nice pretty color coded chart that usually useful. In this case they ran the race and I threw my chart in the garbage.
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Old 12-18-2018, 03:34 PM   #112
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Your comments in this topic remind me of an investment advisor who tells people to buy low and sell high. Until you can show the practical benefits of your physics knowledge vis-a-vis a handicapping advantage it will probably be time to file this under useless knowledge not applicable to handicapping (at this time).
This is kind of the way I would view Cratos' posts in the past. How does this lend predictability to the running of the upcoming race? It always seemed more useful in assessing the past than glimpsing into the future.
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Old 12-18-2018, 08:06 PM   #113
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This is kind of the way I would view Cratos' posts in the past. How does this lend predictability to the running of the upcoming race? It always seemed more useful in assessing the past than glimpsing into the future.
I would say that understanding a horse's past races better gives you a better chance to predict his chances of winning subsequent races. These debates on the impact of slow paces are an effort to understand past performances better.

Pace projections are a related and also potentially valuable topic.
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Old 12-18-2018, 08:16 PM   #114
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I would say that understanding a horse's past races better gives you a better chance to predict his chances of winning subsequent races. These debates on the impact of slow paces are an effort to understand past performances better.
Yes...but before we can rely on our methods to assist us in understanding the horses' PAST races...we have to make sure that these methods carry enough predictive value to efficiently do the job. And that can only be reliably accomplished by trying our methods out on races that have yet to be run. Once a race is run, many "theories" can be constructed to explain the race's outcome...but it's debatable whether any of them really contributed to what transpired in the run race.

It may be only me...but I am quite deadly when it comes to explaining the outcome of a race once the running is done. It's making sense of the race BEFOREHAND that gives me considerable trouble.
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Old 12-18-2018, 08:51 PM   #115
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Yes...but before we can rely on our methods to assist us in understanding the horses' PAST races...we have to make sure that these methods carry enough predictive value to efficiently do the job. And that can only be reliably accomplished by trying our methods out on races that have yet to be run. Once a race is run, many "theories" can be constructed to explain the race's outcome...but it's debatable whether any of them really contributed to what transpired in the run race.

It may be only me...but I am quite deadly when it comes to explaining the outcome of a race once the running is done. It's making sense of the race BEFOREHAND that gives me considerable trouble.
I agree.

I guess I am coming at it from a different place. I don't feel like I have theories about some of these things anymore.

Previously I had loads of opinions based on decades of experience, but it's tough to prove anything without asking a question, seeing what the data for the last "x" years says, and then testing it going forward.

Now I have a database.

It isn't exactly fun loading PPs and result charts into a database every week and writing formulas to assign running styles, pace projections, do chart analysis, do bias determination, upgrade and downgrade horses, etc.. It's a boatload of work and sometimes all the work, analysis, and fine tuning yields insights of no betting value.

But at this stage, I feel like I already know the answers to some of these questions because I've already studied it and developed good metrics to measure and prove it. All I can do is refine the metrics further and answer more handicapping questions.

The big thing is still value. I know monstrously more now than I did even 10 years ago. If I had the time I could probably make another huge leap next year given the data and metrics I have at my disposal. But imo, the game is massively harder to find an edge in now than it was years ago.
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Old 12-18-2018, 09:02 PM   #116
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And another troubling aspect is that we really can’t talk about what those remaining edges might be or any new ones that may pop-up, the nature of boards and social media being what it is, news about edges or other tiny secrets that make differences, that separates us from “the public” (the key to profits)...gets around fast, so that any edge we may have had....soon evaporates...so some interesting stuff goes largely....undiscussed.
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Old 12-18-2018, 09:17 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Yes...but before we can rely on our methods to assist us in understanding the horses' PAST races...we have to make sure that these methods carry enough predictive value to efficiently do the job. And that can only be reliably accomplished by trying our methods out on races that have yet to be run. Once a race is run, many "theories" can be constructed to explain the race's outcome...but it's debatable whether any of them really contributed to what transpired in the run race.

It may be only me...but I am quite deadly when it comes to explaining the outcome of a race once the running is done. It's making sense of the race BEFOREHAND that gives me considerable trouble.
HA!! Hindsight Handicappers. Love how you put it........QUITE DEADLY.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:41 AM   #118
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hindsight.

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Glorious Empire : Needs to go wire to wire, not happening.

Qurbaan: The first contender, and a strong one. 5-1 is nice also. The Pick.

Hi Happy: Contender for sure. Wilted in last, but not likely to see that hot of pace today.

Inspector Lynley: Jockey chose this one over the . Has a shot, Contender.
The screen shot is from my computer for this race. I use it before looking at the race, the green column is the horses ranking. Notice I did not use the , or as contenders. The numbers say something, but handicapping says "no thanks". Also notice the highlighted area in the top left showing the as the lone E8 in the race. In hindsight, I did a good job in getting to the and , and a really bad job of underestimating the lone E8.
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Old 12-19-2018, 10:14 AM   #119
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A letter to Philo et al. .... et Jay! : )

I agree with the consensus here. Thaskalos stated it well. Application of theory, to forecast, is of primary concern to both the horseplayer ($$), and to the critical eye...

As Bob Philo and Cratos, and others (as well at times myself) have found, Horse Racing is a terribly fascinating subject.

There has been some 'pushback' when posters repeatedly continue down the esoteric path, without application.

For general conversation, the best way to illuminate, is to be able to take a complex subject and explain the 'basic principles' in such a way that any layman, even a child, can understand. Higher order thinking can then expound.

I do think there is room for dedication to the physics of Horse Racing. I do not know of papers and books currently available. I have seen a physics related article concerning 'aerodynamic drag' (drafting covered up behind horses and racing 'in the pocket' etc..). May be of interest. Although I was an avid reader from a young age, Robert K. Adair's "The Physics of Baseball", may have been my first 'physics' book. I read it many times, and although it did not help a person play or bet or predict baseball any better, the book was relatively successful and appreciated.



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hindsight.



The screen shot is from my computer for this race. I use it before looking at the race, the green column is the horses ranking. Notice I did not use the , or as contenders. The numbers say something, but handicapping says "no thanks". Also notice the highlighted area in the top left showing the as the lone E8 in the race. In hindsight, I did a good job in getting to the and , and a really bad job of underestimating the lone E8.
yea, tough race

If I had a big multi-race bet going to that race, I'd want to use most of those and not exclude the #1.

I couldn't have picked the 1 as my key. I was way off on guessing the pace, and underestimated the post/track importance.

More of a 'pass' than a race I'd want to invest in.

Thought your "Qurbaan: The first contender, and a strong one. 5-1 is nice also. The Pick." actually looked good in the race. He was kind of buried with nowhere to go, so I wish that he had really 'exploded' at the end, but visually he looked like a nice one to me.
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Old 12-19-2018, 12:34 PM   #120
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This was my pace projection for that GP Stake. My system generates multiple reports. This one gives me a quick look at the running styles of each horse in each race.

They are categorized as:

PS - Pure Speed
FR - Front Runner
NFR - Near Front Runner
Off - Off the pace (I don't bother breaking these down further because none of them are likely to impact the pace unless it's a paceless race to begin with)

The algorithm for assigning the running styles is my own. It adjusts for distance, surface, very lightly raced horses, give more weight to recent races, and tosses certain races that don't fit among other things. It was refined and tested until it was spitting out the best forward projections I could produce. It continues to evolve.

The horses are ranked in speed order. The numbers give me a mathematical way of separating horses with the same running style designation and also allows me to see how close the ones just outside the category limit were to the cutoff.

I didn't see anything special about the pace for this race. I expected Blacktype and Glorious Empire to keep each other company on the lead with Mr Havercamp, Zule Alpha, and Hi Happy in the next group. If you watch the race, Blacktype got left as the start. That left Glorious Empire as the lone main speed with a chance to be loose.

All this data is stored. Automated profiles are built to describe the pre race projections and then the profiles are compared to result charts so I can try to isolate the profiles that lead to races going to wire, falling apart at every distance and on every surface etc...

Those "hot" and "cold" profiles are stored and become part of another projection report I use to identify the races with pace opportunities across all the track I follow with one quick push of the button.

Everything is constantly being tested and updated as I accumulate more data and new insights.

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