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Old 07-14-2019, 06:19 AM   #1
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Saratoga: Sunday, July 14

Race One:

The thoroughbred handicapping philosopher once said: “In a field full of first-time starters, the horse with a race under his/her belt is king/queen.” That is the reasoning behind my first-race pick in this MSW turf route. I watched the replay of Sign of the Times’s only race back on June 22 at GP, a 7 and ½ furlongs MSW turf route. In that race, this Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux (BRZ)-bred (I’m partial to that turf lineage) broke slowly. This 2-year old filly was then steadied some as Eduardo Nunez guided this Life is Beautiful-bred (5 winners and 2 stakes winners from 8 starters) to the inside on the backstretch. As the field reached the far turn, Nunez swung his charge to the outside; she was 5-wide. She was full of energy at this stage of the race, but she flattened out in mid-stretch. This filly ended up finishing 5th. In hindsight, I would not call this filly's first pari-mutuel race “the best of trips”. However, I felt that off that first effort the potential existed for marked improvement. That, in part, is why I’m picking this filly. Her owner-trainer, Wesley Ward, does very well with horses making their 2nd career start. In the addition, the blinkers come off (another category that Ward does well with). Finally, this is the only filly in this field who has raced in a turf route. I believe that’s a big plus. (In fact, many in this field are untested). Irad Ortiz, Jr. is in the irons. Others: , , P.S. Yes, at my own peril, I'm eschewing
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Old 07-14-2019, 06:51 AM   #2
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Race Two:

In the second half of the early double, I’m going with my "double-number, piano-keyboard” choice, Elios Milos. As I look at his “lines,” this Dublin-bred 4-year old bay colt started his racing career in the spring of 2018 by winning at first-asking. He followed that up with a 2nd place finish in state-bred allowance company. This Afleet Alex-bred was then put on the shelf for nearly one year. His connections brought him back last month; this colt finished 5th in what must be described as a “troubled trip,” i.e., he lunged at the start. This is his 2nd start off a layoff, an angle I like (although, quite candidly, his trainer Jorge Abreu, is only 10% in that category). Yet, it should be noted that Abreu does very well with horses entered in claiming events. And, I suppose, in that vein, here’s the rub. I’m shaking my head to think that a horse that heretofore has been running in allowance company is being dropped in “for a tag”. Yet, if he reverts back to previous form, this colt can win. The only indication of that possibility is a recent morning work, but that, admittedly, was mediocre. Yet, when all is said and done, I believe, if reasonably ready, this Successful Appeal-bred can prevail. Manny Franco has his boots in the stirrups. Others: . ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 07:11 AM   #3
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Race Three:

My choice in this state-bred MSW turf sprint is Adios Amigos. This Adios Charlie-bred 3-year old gelding did finish 5th in his last, a turf sprint at Belmont back on June 6th; yet he was beaten by only two lengths. I believe there is room for improvement. His chauffeur, Monsieur Julien Leparoux, is a solid turf reinsman. On “the bottom” there is River Squall, the son 1990 Preakness winner, Summer Squall. I should add that River Squall, in 1997, won the Grade III Saranac Stakes, a race that is run on the turf. The “Aussie,” Brian Lynch, is this bay gelding’s conditioner. Others: , ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 07:32 AM   #4
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Race Four:

Bank on Shea was purchased at Ocala earlier in the year for 110k. Frankly, I’m choosing this Speightstown-bred bay colt, almost by default. I’m not sure what to expect. This colt does possess a solid equine thoroughbred lineage, yet his broodmare, Miss Moultree was unraced and, heretofore, until today, had seen none (this may be her first crop) of her offspring reach the races. I guess what I’m relying most on are the training skills of Jason Servis. Servis does very well both with horses entered in MSWs and those making their first career start. This 2-year old’s morning work-tab has been both steady and decent. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has the call. Others: , ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 07:46 AM   #5
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Race Five:

In this one-mile 40k claiming turf route, I’m going with Positive Skew. (I wish I knew why the filly's connections are dropping this her in “for a tag”)? Chad Brown, “The Pride of Mechanicsville,” the smallest geographic entity in the Empire State, is this City Zip-bred filly’s conditioner. Brown does very well in all racing categories, particularly when entering horses in a claiming race for the first time. Brown is adding blinkers. This Carson City-bred filly is stretching out (I don’t believe that poses a problem). I should note that this filly's dam, Ermine Slippers, had 3 winners from 3 starters and 2 turf winners. Further, this filly’s morning works have been good. The veteran reinsman, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. Others: , ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 08:07 AM   #6
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Race Six:

In this allowance race for home-bred fillies at nine panels on the turf, my selection is: Hit a Provisional. Yes, at first blush, it looks like this choice came from “out in left-field”. Before you say, “abuelo loco.” (Mi yerno es de Camaguey, Cuba, home of the tinajones), hear me out. First, admittedly (let’s get the bad stuff out of the way), this bay filly has been en vacaciones for “the longest time”. Yet, the recent morning works are decent. The filly’s broodmare, Quiet North had 6 winners from 8 starters (no turf winners). Further, I believe this filly can “get the distance”. She won at one mile in a race that was taken off the turf. Jorge Abreu trains this Northern Afleet-bred. Jose Ortiz is in the irons. Others: /. ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 08:28 AM   #7
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Race Seven:

In this 6 and ½ panels state-bred sprint, I’ve opted for O Shea Can You See. First, the rider-switch is immense. Second, Linda Rice is an outstanding trainer who does very well with horses entered first after a claim. Yet, I suppose the only thing that concerns me about this Curlin-bred 4-year old gelding is that he has a propensity to hit the board, yet not win. Thus, I would suggest “buying insurance” (I find this one of the tougher races to handicap). Jose Lezcano has the call. Others: , ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 08:45 AM   #8
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Race Eight:

This is another “walk on the wild side”. A filly, if she pops, could cause a lot of “punters” to be eliminated in today’s very generous Pick-6 carryover. I’m talking about a M/L longshot: Dance Till Dawn. Given (this sounds like a geometry problem): the Panamanian-born jinete, Luis Saez, is an excellent gate-jockey. And, given, that this Verrazano-bred is capable of making the lead. If Saez can put this filly “on the engine” and ration out her speed, she might just “…go all the way!” Yes, there are a lot of “ifs”. But as my old history professor used to say, “You pay your nickel and you take your chance.” Phil Serpe is this More Than Ready-bred’s conditioner. I believe this Pulpit-bred can handle today’s stretch-out. This filly’s broodmare, Single, had 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 turf winner. Others: , ,
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Walt (Teach)

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Old 07-14-2019, 09:03 AM   #9
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Race Nine:

My choice in the non-graded Coronation Cup Stakes, a race to be run at a distance of 5 and ½ furlongs on the turf for a purse of 100k is: My Galina. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred 3-year old filly faded in the stretch in a Grade III Stakes event at 7 panels at Belmont a couple months ago. This filly now cuts back over one panel. That cutback could be a prescription for victory. Jorge Abreu trains this El Prado-bred. Look for this filly to be out and winging when the gates open; she’ll have her speedy foes to her inside (that’s a plus). Javier Castellano is in the irons. Others: , ,
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Old 07-14-2019, 09:19 AM   #10
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Race Ten:

In the finale, under the heading: “How low can you go?” my choice is the outside horse: Zorbed. This 3-year-old Orb-bred gelding has been playing the limbo “claiming game”. If he can’t win at this level… And to think that his connections paid 325k for Malibu Moon-bred gelding. I think his outside starting post should help. Recent morning works signal readiness. Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons; Rudy Rodriguez is this gelding’s trainer. Rodriguez does very well when dropping horses 2+ classes. Oh, the broodmare, Brush Strokes, had 2 winners and 1 stakes winner from 3 starters. Others:, ,
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"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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