Dog Days of SoCal 'Capping

[ultracapper]

From here until the day after Christmas, other than a couple of days in early November at Del Mar that should be pretty entertaining, this is nothing but handicapping trench warfare in SoCal. Jumping from track to track, small barns trying to make budgets or annual goals, big outfits positioning themselves for winter/spring, and handicappers trying to see through the muddle. But 4/1 pays every bit as much of $10 now as it will on Santa Anita Derby day, so we keep at it.

10/5/17 SA 3rd Taste's Legend

He really looked positioned to win his last race at LosAl, but 2 unforeseen things kept him out of the winner's circle. Couldn't find a seam to get through at the top of the stretch, and a first time starter that ran the length of the stretch very stylishly. Two good maintenance works since, and now faces a field of horses that, except for a couple races that set up for a closer to suck up into decent finishes, don't show a race where they even threatened to win. His races at the higher class levels look better on the track than they do on paper, and nobody fears these connections, so a decent price is to be had. Should be mid pack, and with a clean run and a repeat of his last stretch run, he definitely can compete with these. 8/1 ML, sitting at 19/1 w/3 MTP.

Don't want to get too silly with a horse that started his career in the spring of his 5yo season, but whatever kept him away doesn't seem to be a problem any longer as he hasn't missed a dance since he started his racing career.

[ultracapper]

Hard earned 3rd.

Have to comment on Kurt Hoover on this one. I watched the race on TVG, and Kurt Hoover is the analyst today. His comments after the race. The winner, , if you were really reaching, could have been covered if the route races in his form were forgiven by handicappers. Taste's Legends, "kind of just picked up the pieces".

Taste's Legend broke well, sat on the hip of the pace setter, headed him at the 5/16ths, dispensed of him at the top of the stretch, dueled with an engaging stalker the length of the stretch, and succumbed in the last 50 yards. The winner, Rolls Royce Deal, dropped back early, worked his way down to the rail on the backstretch, rode the rail around the far turn, and snuck through in deep stretch to pass tiring horses for the win. If any horse "kind of just picked up the pieces", it was the winner. Jockey Ochoa rode a very savvy race to get that one home.

Hoover is the race analyst for crying out loud. He really should watch the race rather than get glued onto whatever horses he touted, which in this case, were of zero interest throughout.

I see why so many of our board members mute TVG. I'm usually not real critical though I agree they seldom have much to say. But muting it because all the chippy jibber jabber is one thing. Muting it because the race analyst is clueless is another. At least do that part of your job correctly, and we can forgive all the dead time you have to creatively fill. At least do the 2 or 3 minutes that are really your job properly.

Sore loser, I know. If I would have been on the 12, which I wouldn't have caught in a fishing net the size of New Hamphire, I wouldn't have even noticed.

[ultracapper]

No time for a write up today, but looking for TBaze to ride Shazara on the rail, saving ground until the stretch, and then unleashing a winning stretch run in the 10th at SA 10/7/17.

Good Luck everybody.

[ultracapper]

SA 7th 10/8/17

Tatar 4/1 1MTP thought this one would be about 9/5

[ultracapper]

Here are my conclusions for a couple races that I've handicapped by my same old tried and true method I've been employing for years now, and adding in the use of TFUS output for clarification and verification at Santa Anita Friday, Oct 13, 2017.

1st

Dukes Up has been more forwardly placed in the past than he has been in his past 2 races, and his finishing kick is just overwhelming. He will probably drop back once again, but no reason he can't stay in shouting distance, and I don't see anybody running off at 3/16ths pole to the extent he couldn't be reeled in. Sindys Luck's dirt form is hidden by all those Arizona turf efforts, but he's a headknocker on the front end. takes a severe drop and the 96 BSF last time on the dirt looks like an anomoly to me. No question he'll be forwardly placed though. And he's legitimately fast.

6th

Kenton Road lost all chance with a sluggish start against what proved to be a very sharp winner, yet hustled her way up to the front end, and beat everybody else save a late closer that snuck by her late. Clean break and professional handling by Roman will equal a solid performance. Hansen Tale Blues wouldn't relax early in her last race. Maybe the excitement of being back in a race for the first time in a year. This 6 1/2 furlongs should be getting in her wheelhouse also. Two-time perfect trip loser is fast enough to be a nuisance throughout, and should probably be a short priced key on all serious vertical tickets, but she went into her last race with a better workout record than she's coming into this one, and couldn't out-duel a 30/1 FTS when she should have slammed her throat to the ground. She's also a race-for-age, state-bred, perfect trip loser in her debut. She looks like a house of cards to me.

I'll handicap the 7th and 8th also, but probably won't post.

Good luck everybody.