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Old 07-28-2016, 02:09 PM   #76
PhantomOnTour
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Sar Race 3 today.
Looking to beat the chalk #8 Benevolence but he doesn't meet the 2-1 odds criteria, at least not yet.
Price is 5-2 with 2 MTP
Wound up the co-favorite at 5-2 and won it
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Old 08-04-2016, 09:37 PM   #77
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14-10 against....which brings us to Fri. 8/5...

7th race...#8 money multiplier...8/5 ML....why is this horse here...2nd in back to back G 1's...plenty of bigger money turf races around this time frame and running here?....SMELLS.....am against...
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Old 08-05-2016, 06:54 PM   #78
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what STINKS was my pick against here...tend to forget RICH clients don't care about the money...just a win...which they got...record now 14-11...
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Old 08-07-2016, 12:07 PM   #79
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8/7 at Toga

7th race...oops...going against Mr. Browns gaudy #'s in all categories here...#5 Kerjillion....one race in 2 years...then another lay-off...well...if it beats me it beats me...

9th race...the pletcher #2 Far From Over...similar to one above...his m.o. is 4 to 5 weeks...not 7...typically horses run big 1st time...which this one did...now what...we'll see...will be playing against...
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Old 08-07-2016, 12:21 PM   #80
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Both of these horses look like tough favorites to me. Kerjillion has 10 works since last and it's his second start off a long layoff for a red hot barn. Caton just said that she heard that Far From Above has been training strongly. There are a lot of bad favorites that aren't good race horses, I think those are the ones worth betting against.
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Old 08-07-2016, 12:44 PM   #81
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Both of these horses look like tough favorites to me. Kerjillion has 10 works since last and it's his second start off a long layoff for a red hot barn. Caton just said that she heard that Far From Above has been training strongly. There are a lot of bad favorites that aren't good race horses, I think those are the ones worth betting against.
thanks for the heads up...it is a guessing game sometimes...especially if you're not connected....used to have reliable intel at times...lately....not so much...will tread lightly...
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Old 08-07-2016, 12:53 PM   #82
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thanks for the heads up...it is a guessing game sometimes...especially if you're not connected....used to have reliable intel at times...lately....not so much...will tread lightly...

I like your idea of betting against these long layoff horses, but the best time to bet against Kerjillion was last start. Saratoga is different, too, because these top barns aren't wasting anything, they need to win a bunch of races to appease their rich owners. Everything is a go.

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Old 08-07-2016, 09:19 PM   #83
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strange lay-offs...regardless of trainer are usually a red flag...2-0 today...16-11 now...
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Old 08-07-2016, 11:50 PM   #84
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strange lay-offs...regardless of trainer are usually a red flag...2-0 today...16-11 now...

Good job!
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Old 08-08-2016, 08:01 AM   #85
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8/8....TOGA again...against another HOT trainer today....long lay-off AND strange work-out pattern....gaps...many of them...

8th...#6 Ocean Knight...not only above factors...think today is just a work-out...either stakes or claiming next time out...just guessing...will gamble against today....
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Old 08-09-2016, 07:27 AM   #86
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8/8....TOGA again...against another HOT trainer today....long lay-off AND strange work-out pattern....gaps...many of them...

8th...#6 Ocean Knight...not only above factors...think today is just a work-out...either stakes or claiming next time out...just guessing...will gamble against today....
although was correct...not counting...was not close to odds-on...almost 3rd choice in this race....
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Old 08-20-2016, 07:37 AM   #87
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8/20/16...Saratoga 8th...will be against super trainer Brown entry with super jock I.Ortiz...#10 Ava's Kitten...9/5 ML....unless there's a late announcement of adding blinks...

Don't like lay-off, with jockey switch...JC had the choice am thinking...w/cut-back for this horse....actually....cut-backs one my FAVORITE betting angles...but not here...
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Old 08-20-2016, 09:41 PM   #88
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took my lumps...16-12 now...horse & jock both ran hard to get the nose in front...

as a side note...thought Mr. Brown's with the blinkers in the 11th was a much better short price play...wrong...got it backwards....happens...

that's what makes it so challenging...trying to pick against SHORT prices...notice...did not try to beat songbird or chrome today...both were STELLAR....
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Old 08-22-2016, 08:00 AM   #89
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8/22..mon. at the spa...feature race...8/5 ML...4/5 probable at the bell...#6 Eskenformoney...against the Pletcher here...

Thinking last took a little starch out of her...coming back a bit quick & long...bounce candidate...if you believe in that...IMHO....I think it has more merit w/fillies...which is the case here...wouldn't surprise if she didn't even hit the board in a 6 horse field...
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Old 08-26-2016, 08:56 PM   #90
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8/22..mon. at the spa...feature race...8/5 ML...4/5 probable at the bell...#6 Eskenformoney...against the Pletcher here...

Thinking last took a little starch out of her...coming back a bit quick & long...bounce candidate...if you believe in that...IMHO....I think it has more merit w/fillies...which is the case here...wouldn't surprise if she didn't even hit the board in a 6 horse field...
Not bad for a one eyed fat man....now on to "Toga" Travers day....and race #6....Curalina....#2....9/5 ML...> as above...same trainer...mostly same consistent results over the years....now mind you...this race is shorter...so she might hit the board...wouldn't surprise me either way...will cost me money if she wins....which I'm against...

ps...a bit of a redboard...not always against Pletcher big chalk....had the one today in the feature...ie...fri...but she HAD proper spacing for his program...that's the key...
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