Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-06-2017, 01:59 PM   #151
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/6/17

Santa Anita Race 1

CLM 20K, 1 1/16 DIRT (1:00)
5 SORRY ERIK 2-1
6 VIBE 9-5
3 ICEBERG SLIM 15-1
1 NORTHERN GREY 5-2

PICK: 5 SORRY ERIK (2-1)
Late runner in a race that speed should be contested and set him up late. 4th in key race two back. Winner took a 100k on turf last weekend. 2nd and 3rd won back for 32k and opt clm next starts. Looks live but at a small price.

VALUE: 3 ICEBERG SLIM (15-1)
Moves to a new trainer and gets a bug rider and drops 10-12 lbs from his previous races. Doesn’t appear to be a win candidate in here but can pass the tired foes.

A) 5 B) 6 C) 1,3,4
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-07-2017, 05:05 AM   #152
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/7/17

SANTA ANITA R8 OPT CLM 40K, 6.5F DIRT (4:00)

4 SKYE DIAMONDS 4-1
9 CALM THE SEA 5-2
2 PLANE LUCKY 7-2
6 BIG BREAK 10-1

PICK: 4 SKYE DIAMONDS (4-1)
She has run first or second in all 7 starts on a fast track when facing fillies/mares. Exits a key race. The winner came back to win the Kalookan Queen for her 3rd win in a row for Peter Miller. 4th won in a starter allw in her next start. Cal-bred has been working nicely for this. Trainer won w/ 3 of his last 6 starts.

VALUE: 6 BIG BREAK (10-1)
Game win at 5-1 in last and that was the 1st time Arroyo got aboard her. Have to like the way she stalked the pace and got by the 2nd place finisher late. If she repeats that style in here, she can be a major factor. She’s 4 for 18 at Santa Anita. Exotics player at least.

A) 4,9 B) 2,6 C) 1,5,7,10
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-08-2017, 12:22 PM   #153
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/8/17

SANTA ANITA RACE 1 MSW 54K, 1M TURF (12:30)

2 ZAFFINAH 2-1
5 CIAO BELLA ROSA 5-1
8 PADDY JEAN 4-1
10 IRISH DAME 8-1

PICK: 2 ZAFFINAH (2-1)
Shipper from Germany where she was bet very hard in her first two starts. She tossed her rider in the debut, won at 1-9 in her 2nd start but was DQ’d. Only 4.5 back in last. 2nd came back for a 3rd in the G2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket behind Spain Burg, who was in BC Juv Fillies. 1st Euro import for Carava.

VALUE: 5 CIAO BELLA ROSA (5-1)
She’s been pretty consistent for Miller. Only poor start came when she drew inside going 6.5F on the turf here three back. She’s had a lot of chances and does run her race going a route of ground but looks more like exotics material than a win candidate. Pedroza up.

A) 2 B) 5,8,10 C) 3,7,9
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-13-2017, 12:39 AM   #154
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
There is a full card analysis report for both Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park available for Friday, 1/13/17 at the link in the signature below

1/13/17 SANTA ANITA
R1 CLM 20K, 6F DIRT (1:00)

4 TCHULA SUNSET 5-2
2 BLAZINGULCH 2-1
5 YODELERS WAY 5-1
1 MT. LEINSTER 4-1

PICK: 4 TCHULA SUNSET (5-2)
Only one that will definitely be sent is one to his outside. However, this one should be in a great spot tracking right behind in 2nd. Rail wasn’t great at LRC and will to look past the 6th place finish in last. Winner went wire to wire and buried the other speed. 3rd won at the same level here last week with a 73 fig.

VALUE: 2 BLAZINGULCH (2-1)
First two races were utter disasters. But he won two back at 72-1 when Pedroza was up for the only time. Finished right in front of the top choice in last but he had the better setup in way the race unfolded. Notice 3rd place finisher won, beating the rail runner.

A) 4 B) 1,2,5 C) 3
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-14-2017, 02:31 PM   #155
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Santa Anita 1/14/17 (also Oaklawn Park for 1/14/17 link in signature below)

RACE 1 OPT CLM 40K, 1M 1/8 DIRT (12:30)

3 BACKINTHEACADEMY 20-1
10 LADY PAMELA 5-1
8 PLACE DES VOSGES 4-1
2 SHAZARA 6-1

PICK: 3 BACKINTHEACADEMY (20-1)
With the race off the turf and the scratches in here, this filly makes some sense. Could be the controlling speed if this rider wants to send again, like she did last time in the solid runner-up at LRC. It was her 2nd big effort in her last 3 starts. Rider has ridden her 7 straight. In very good form right now.

VALUE: 10 LADY PAMELA (5-1)
Great ride by Desormeaux to get her up last out as the 2-1 favorite. She sat behind a fast pace and rolled in the lane. Was 2nd in the 2 back race and far clear of 3rd. Dam won 1.8 million. Should handle the move to the dirt again here. Sits right up near the pace here.

A) 3,10 B) 2,8 C) 11
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-15-2017, 01:48 PM   #156
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/15/17

R1 MDN CLM 75K, 6F DIRT (12:30)

3 SHEZA CHATTYKAT 8-5
1 PONTIFICATOR 6-5
4 CHRISTMAS CAROL 4-1
2 BLISSFUL LADY 4-1

PICK: 3 SHEZA CHATTYKAT (8-5)
This is a firster for trainer Richard Baltas, who has two firsters in this race. Overall, Baltas 3 for 20 in top 3 w/ zero wins 3YO+ firsters in maiden clm. But this is a very small field. Bred to sprint, Trappe Shot, Five Star Day pedigree influence. Works strong highlighted by bullet 11 days ago.

VALUE: 4 CHRISTMAS CAROL (4-1)
Baltas other first timer cost only 10k but is starting for 75k, show of confidence by Baltas. Breeding leans more towards turf but she attracts Bejarano. Has some nice works at SLR, a training track with a glib surface. She doesn’t have to be too much.

A) 1,3,4 B) C) 2
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2017, 01:26 PM   #157
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/21/17

SANTA ANITA R3 STR ALLW 40K, 6F DIRT (1:29)

1 RECKLESS CHARM 9-2
5 SHE HAS CHARM 2-1
2 SPINDLE 7-2
6 ZANAB 5-1

PICK: 1 RECKLESS CHARM (9-2)
Talamo gets back up (he rode her prior at Santa Anita). Good 2nd two back. Winner came back to run 3rd in a stakes here and then win another opt clm. Winner three back won twice since then (50k claiming and opt 40k). Given the way the race flow looks, she’ll be sitting 2nd or 3rd early here.

VALUE: 2 SPINDLE (7-2)
Dropped to maiden 30k in her last start at LRC and won by 8 in a hand ride. That was the 3rd time she has been claimed. Trainer has started this meet with 2 wins in his 5 starts. He retains Elliott. Not much speed so he may be in control wire to wire here.

A) 1,2,5 B) 6 C) 3,4,7
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-26-2017, 10:17 AM   #158
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Will have Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park for Saturday at the link in the signature below. Just Santa Anita for Thursday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/26/17

SA R1 MDN CLM 30K, 5.5F DIRT (1:00)

7 RUN SCOUT RUN 4-1
5 GOOD N NAUGHTY 7-2
3 BELLA BE QUICK 2-1
1 SASSY ROSE 5-2

PICK: 7 RUN SCOUT RUN (4-1)
She is just a 3500 purchase in 2015 so the start for 40k is actually encouraging. She only beat 5 runners in there but it wasn’t a bad effort. Most of the runners in front of her were dropping in from MSW races. Can’t have a bigger rider move. She might not be able to run but will improve here.

VALUE: 5 GOOD N NAUGHTY (7-2)
Goes back to the rider who was up 2 back when she ran a good 3rd while wide. Rider was tossed in last and now he is aboard the top choice. Trainer has just one win at the meet but hit the board 6 of 13. Decent work from the gate 10 days ago. Fits here.

A) 3,5,7 B) 1 C) 2,4
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-27-2017, 01:20 PM   #159
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/27/17

SA R1 MDN CLM 30K, 5.5F DIRT (1:00)

3 MISS NAPPER TANDY 7-2
2 TO B. AVA 2-1
4 SOLEIL COUCHANT 8-1
1 AVAUDREY 6-1

PICK: 3 MISS NAPPER TANDY (7-2)
There are a few speedballs in here that do not look like they can last. This one has a stalking/closing style. The run two back when 3rd from 10 post at 40-1 turned out to be an excellent effort. Notice 2nd place finisher, a length clear of this one, beat the filly to her inside, the 2-1 ML favorite.

VALUE: 4 SOLEIL COUCHANT (8-1)
Exits the same race the rail filly came out of and was about a half of a length behind that one. 8th place finisher, Jeoffie, ran 3rd in the same race that To. B. Ava was 2nd in her last start. Just a 4500 purchase in ’14 she’s at the right level. Improves 2nd out.

A) 3 B) C) 1,2,4
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2017, 08:06 AM   #160
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
FULL CARD REPORTS FOR GULFSTREAM PARK, OAKLAWN PARK AND SANTA ANITA FOR 1/28/17 - CLICK LINK IN SIGNATURE BELOW

1/28/17
SANTA ANITA R5 OAKS 200K, 1M TURF (1:49)

4 BELLA LUMA 8-1
9 SIRCAT SALLY 8-5
3 HOW ABOUT ZERO 15-1
8 MY PI ROMANCER 5-2

PICK: 4 BELLA LUMA (8-1)
Ran well in her first turf start when 2nd at GG at 17-1. That was also her first try at a route and with a new rider aboard. Went off in her maiden win by 9 at GG. Pressed the pace in the Jimmy Durante and had to jump debris and steady. Dam ran well on turf in the early 2000’s. Big rider upgrade.

VALUE: 3 HOW ABOUT ZERO (15-1)
Blinkers come off for O’Neill after a fade vs these in last. She did make a mid-race move before tiring. She was also in that G3 two back when the debris was on the track. Has a lot of turf in the pedigree and gets a fast pace to close into. Nice works.

A) 4,9 B) 3,8 C) 5,6,10
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2017, 01:47 PM   #161
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
1/29/17

SA R4 OPT CLM 40K, 1M TURF (1:59)

5 SCARLET HONEY 5-1
1 PLACE DES VOSGES 4-1
4 SUGARY 6-1
2 SWEET DRAGON FLY 8-1

PICK: 5 SCARLET HONEY (5-1)
Shipper from France hasn’t been seen for a year and a half. She was running pretty well there with a win and 4 in the money from 5 starts. Powell 2 for 2 with French imports (16-1 and 6-1 wins). Works very strong on the dirt here and Powell goes with Desormeaux. 1st Lasix. Looks ready.

VALUE: 1 PLACE DES VOSGES (4-1)
This mare is strictly turf based on her turf leaning pedigree. She stayed in the race in her last start despite it moving off the grass and to the main track. Back to grass here. Good 3rd two back at CD following a win at KEE. Saves ground with C Nak up.

A) 5 B) 1,2,4,9 C) 3,6,7,8
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-04-2017, 02:13 PM   #162
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
2/4/17

SANTA ANITA 1 MSW 54K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (12:30)

2 REACH THE WORLD 8-5
4 HONOR AND COURAGE 9-5
1 SONNETEER 3-1
3 CATS BLAME 4-1

PICK: 2 REACH THE WORLD (8-5)
Baffert seemed to be higher on Dabster, his winner last out that included this first timer. But he did say this one would get better w/ a race or two. He ran big from the rail at 5-1 to get beat just a length. He has a the $2.9M winner, Escena, in the female family (a half to the dam). He’ll move forward in 2nd start.

VALUE: 1 SONNETEER (3-1)
Was just half a length behind a main player in here, Honor and Courage, in his 2nd start of his career. He nibbled vs good fields in all of his route races since. 6 wide in the 100k California Derby at 12-1 but did finish with a bit of interest. Desormeaux back and he has done well w/ him. Bred for longer distances.

A) 2,4 B) 1,3 C)
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2017, 11:31 AM   #163
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita full card sheets available for Sunday at the link in the signature below

2/5/17

SA R1 OPT CLM 75K, 1M TURF (11:00)

1 SOGLIO 7-5
3 KY. COLONEL 6-1
4 CISTRON 8-5
6 REIGN ON 4-1

PICK: 1 SOGLIO (7-5)
Really big run two back from the 12 slot w/ blinkers added for first time. He swooped up wide to win with something left. Pace of the Eddie Logan was just too slow for him. The 1st and 3rd place finishers were able to crawl early. This one was finishing w/ big strides and was unlucky to lose. Stands out in here.

VALUE: 3 KY. COLONEL (6-1)
Hard to know what kind of talent is here. He won in his turf debut three back but he was able to set such a slow pace that it was hard for him to not win that race. Drew a wide 10 slot for the stakes 2 back and split the field at 14-1. Toss last on the off-track. He has a few decent works. Looks well-meant today.

A) 1 B) 3,4 C) 2,6
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-11-2017, 01:11 PM   #164
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
2/11/17

SANTA ANITA 3 MDN CLM 30K, 6.5F DIRT (1:29)

6 LOUD STALKER 2-1
2 THIS IS HOW WE ROLL 7-2
7 GUNNER GREY 8-1
3 FIRST CLASS BOY 4-1

PICK: 6 LOUD STALKER (2-1)
Dropped to maiden claiming for first time in his last start. Blinkers were removed and he was on a muddy track facing 50k company. He faded some in the lane going a route for the first time. A lot changing here. Blinkers go back on, back to a sprint, gelding for the first time and drops further in class in here.

VALUE: 7 GUNNER GREY (8-1)
He’s had just one start and it wasn’t overly bad or overly good. It was just an even effort at 14-1. Sire won the BC Juv and this runner cost just 6500 so the placing here makes a lot of sense. Doesn’t really face much in this spot and should improve 2nd out. Comes in with a nice 5F drill. Looks an exotics player.

A) 6 B) 2,7 C) 3,4
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-12-2017, 02:18 PM   #165
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
2/12/17

SA1 OPT CLM 40K, 6.5F TURF (12:30)

5 DADDY D T 6-1
4 TIZ A BILLY 3-1
8 TOUGH BUT NICE 6-1
1 STREET VISION 6-1

PICK: 5 DADDY D T (6-1)
First time gelding for this high percentage outfit. Last seen back in May and has had 3 starts in the last 15 months. Sadler/Hronis Racing LLC have had a big meet together so far. He draws a good post for his running style and should get a great trip. The works are very strong for the comebacker today.

VALUE: 8 TOUGH BUT NICE (6-1)
Only one turf start and that was a decent 4th in a 100k stakes at GG going a mile. Bred to want the grass and clearly looks like sprint distances are best for him. Espinoza was up two back when the race came off the grass. Has good early speed and a good post. Did not get out of the gate very well in last start.

A) 4,5 B) 1,8,10 C) 6,7,9,11
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.