Belmont: Saturday, October 14

[Teach]

Race One: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000 Purse $40,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

I’m picking a M/L longshot, NORTHERN GREY, in this wide-open, short-field 6-panels sprint. This 3 year-old Northern Afleet-bred had his share of trouble in his last race, his first since coming east from California. In that most recent race, about ten days ago at Belmont, this gelding stumbled badly at the break. That stumble took away any chance that this Afleet-bred could hit the tote. Well, this A Vision for You-bred (two winners from two starters) catches a shorter field; one that he can certainly compete with. In this gelding’s only win, a flat mile at Delmar, he went straight to the top and never looked back. He should easily “get” today’s 6-furlongs distance (I can’t say that about all the others). David Jacobson – he’s having a solid Belmont meet – owns and trains this Songandaprayer-bred. Jacobson does very well with horses who are making their second start after having been claimed. Others: , ,

Race Two: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 75k Purse $75,000

In this MSW turf route, I’m going with the entry: /, NOW IN A DRIVE/WINNING ELEMENT. I believe that either of these colts is capable of getting their picture taken. NOW IN A DRIVE, the Brian Lynch trainee, was “collared” (DRF) in the final stages of a turf-route at Belmont a little less than one month ago. Today’s slight cut-back off this colt’s last effort should help. Luis Saez, an excellent turf jockey, reprises the ride. The other half of the entry, WINNING ELEMENT, made his first foray on the lawn nearly two months ago up at Saratoga. This City Zip-bred chestnut colt held sway throughout most of the race only to falter in the stretch. He finished 4th, yet just a little over two lengths off the winner. The potential certainly exists after this colt’s try on the grass. “Jersey Joe” Bravo is in the irons for trainer George Weaver. Others: , ,

Race Three: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 75k Purse $75,000

EXPENSIVE TASTE sat a stalking trip in her last, her only pari-mutuel start as a 2 year-old over one year ago at Delmar in a 60k MSW. This Giant’s Causeway-bred chestnut filly finished 2nd in that one as a 15-1 longshot. I believe the potential exists for her to grace the winner’s circle. Although I will say this much, her pedigree appears to indicate she might be better suited for the lawn. In any event, as stated, I believe this Storm Cat-bred filly has a solid chance of getting her picture taken. I’m particularly impressed with her most recent morning work on Sept. 22, one in which she “drilled” five panels in a blazing “bullet” work. The clocker’s stop-watch recorded an impressive 1:00.3, handily. I repeat “handily” from the gate. If this filly runs anywhere close to that impressive work, she’s most definitely “a player”. Manny Franco is in the irons for the most capable trainer, Jason Servis. Others: , ,

Race Four: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Alw 77000n1x Purse $77,000

EPPING FOREST, the Christophe Clement trainee, is my choice in the 6 and ½ panels turf-sprint. This Exchange Rate-bred chestnut filly has, in her most recent starts, faced non-graded stakes company, both upstate at Saratoga and back down at Belmont Park; she finished 2nd and 4th, respectively. This Danzig-bred now catches a field she should be able to handle. The aforementioned Monsieur Clement has a very good record with horses entered in sprints. “El Domincano,” Joel Rosario - he’s having a very solid Belmont meet – reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Five: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L Purse $34,000

I’m going out on the limb here. A proverbial “walk on the wild side”. I believe you get the picture. I’m picking a M/L 12-1 shot, CONQUEST EXPRESSO. First, this David Donk trainee has faced better throughout his career. This 4 year-old Munnings-bred gelding has only recently dropped into 25k claiming company. In his last, at this level, he finished a fast-closing 3rd to a runaway winner, that despite being “sandwiched” at the start. In addition,this Medaglia d’Oro-bred was caught extremely wide in the stretch; she sacrificed much ground. A better, cleaner trip would put this Café-bred very much in the thick of things. The aforementioned Donk (frankly, he’s not having a stellar meet) does well with horses making their third start off a layoff. Manny Franco has the call. Others: , , .

Race Six: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 60k Purse $60,000 FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

In this 7-panels 60k MSW turf sprint-route I’m going with a presumed (the M/L says 15-1) longshot, ROYAL POWER. This gelding's connections have tried him on a sloppy track (he finished 4th as the 3/2 chalk) and they’ve also tried him on a fast main track; the gelding finished 8th. Now, trainer Gary Gullo has entered him on the grass. This 2 year-old’s breeding says that he has a very good turf lineage, especially on top, e.g., Orb, Malibu Moon. This gelding’s broodmare, Black Escort, had 4 winners from 6 starters and 2 turf winners. I believe the switch to the grass enhances this gelding’s chances of getting his picture taken. I believe it’s imperative that this gelding break alertly from the gate if he has any chance of winning this race. The gelding’s pilot, Paco Lopez, is an aggressive rider. Yet, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that trainer Gullo has only a 13% win-record, albeit with a limited sampling, with horses making their first start on the grass. Others: AE, ,

Race Seven: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x Purse $80,000

In this 6-panels OC turf sprint I’m picking: GRAND SKY. This Sky Mesa-bred 5 year-old gelding has been a model of consistency, at least recently. This Pulpit-bred won his last two up at The Spa. This gelding has a strong supporting cast in the person of jockey Manny Franco and trainer Jason Servis. Servis does exceptionally well with winners of their last race. I guess my only major concern is that this gelding has been away from the races for about a month and a half. Yet, this Grand Slam-bred gelding won a race up at The Spa after a month and one-half hiatus. Others: , ,

Race Eight: 6 Furlongs. Futurity-G3 Futurity S. Grade III. Purse $150,000 FOR TWO YEAR OLDS.

In the Grade III Futurity Stakes I’m going with ENGAGE. This 2 year-old Into Mischief-bred colt broke his maiden in a 6-panels race up at The Spa on closing day. In that one, this colt came late to get up in the final strides to gain the victory as the 3/5 favorite. Anything resembling that last race and this Harlan’s Holiday-bred should be right there at the wire. Chad Brown, the meet’s leading trainer, has a solid record with horses who broke their maiden in their previous start. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. A sharp recent work bolsters confidence. Others: , ,

Race Nine: 1 Mile. (Turf) 200K Pebbles S. FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

In this non-graded Pebbles at one mile on the Widener Turf, I’m picking: RUBILINDA. This Galileo-bred 3 year-old filly won her last, the non-graded Charismatic, back on opening day at Belmont Park. In that one, she went off as the prohibitive 4-to-5 favorite. I believe the additional 2-panels stretch in today’s Pebbles will work perfectly for this late-closing Rubina-bred bay filly. “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown does exceptionally well with horses making their first route try. He also does very well with horses entered in non-graded stakes. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Ten: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 25000n2L Purse $34,000

In the finale, a claiming turf route, n2L, I’m picking a longshot: CROCE D’ORO. This 3 year-old Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt was last seen about one month ago finishing 8th against higher claiming company. I believe today’s drop to the 25k claiming level gives this El Prado-bred bay a decent chance of getting his picture taken. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this El Prado-bred out and going when the gates open. A low-percentage jock, albeit with ability, Eric Cancel, is in the irons. This Mr. Prospector-bred’s trainer is Charley Baker. Baker is a solid trainer who’s having a very good Belmont meet. I should state that my main concern is that this colt has been away from the races for over three months; yet Baker does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. Others: , ,