Can you fade Fierceness?

[bisket]

Looking at Fierceness, his fast races are better than graded older horses. LOL his slow races he's a second off the variant. He set a new 3 year best time at Santa Anita in the juvenile. Think of all the horses that run in stakes at Santa Anita for the last 3 years and a 2 year old beat them. He beat the variant that day by a second. That's pretty impressive thinking of the quality of horses that ran on that card. He came 2/5ths off the three year best at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby. So there's a consistency to his fast races and the same goes for the slow ones. I think a second off the variant in the derby is worse than finishing in the tri...? The all or nothing camp has a good point, but I need to look at his GPS times.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by bisket

Looking at Fierceness, his fast races are better than graded older horses. LOL his slow races he's a second off the variant. He set a new 3 year best time at Santa Anita in the juvenile. Think of all the horses that run in stakes at Santa Anita for the last 3 years and a 2 year old beat them. He beat the variant that day by a second. That's pretty impressive thinking of the quality of horses that ran on that card. He came 2/5ths off the three year best at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby. So there's a consistency to his fast races and the same goes for the slow ones. I think a second off the variant in the derby is worse than finishing in the tri...? The all or nothing camp has a good point, but I need to look at his GPS times.

The problem with his 'off' races is those are in small fields where he got behind and just kind of clunked around the track.

He isn't going to just sit and trudge along for 3rd or 4th. He'll get waffled back into the pack and continue to fade well into obscurity when it happens.

[Vinnie]

Can Fierceness get off first, take a clear lead and essentially run and hide from the rest of the field in the Derby? Well, it would appear that he seemingly and clearly possesses the ability to do just that. However, I would say that he has a lot going against him in his attempt to see that plan come into fruition in this year's running of the KY Derby. He is running with 19 other horses and several that will be gunning for the front regardless. I believe the connections of Dornoch and possibly Track Phantom (Blinkers added) are of the belief that it just so happens to be the best path of success for their horses in this race. Come hell or high water they will be pressing Fierceness on the front end for the lead. This facet alone will in all likelihood create more pace than Fierceness is comfortable with. It will be interesting to see what Post Position he draws. With regard to Sierra Leone, I don't believe it is as important as he will probably settle in comfortably from wherever he may be drawn. Fierceness isn't a large horse, so, any jostling or bumping that might occur during the initial stages of the race won't be of any sort of benefit to him as well. Sierra Leone is my primary win bet and I will key him with hopefully a handful of prices underneath in the exotics. I am not entirely crazy, however. Additionally, I will be playing a couple of exotic tickets with Fierceness keyed on top with hopefully some longer prices underneath.

Best of Luck and Skill to all. Have a Fantastic Derby!!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Despite all the bluster about which horses SHOULD win, I defy anyone to profit from age restricted races who doesn't work in the stables. We cannot know which horses are taking a physical step up or which are getting over some condition that was holding them back or which aren't eating all their dinner. First hand knowledge trumps pretty much every other angle on paper.

I agree 100% ! That's because all of the interpreted data on paper (or otherwise) only produces subjective interpretations of what's happened in the past. The only objective information available in real time is the money being wagered. Recognizing the basic betting patterns of money flow is the key to understanding its real meaning and value.

However, at least one knows that in most Stakes type races that the majority of entries will be trying to actually win the race. You can’t make that same statement about all the other type of races being run. In those events horses could be entered for any number of reasons. In either case, what better way to reveal that inside information (good or bad) than monitoring the flow of money in all the available betting pools? It’s funny how the connections may unintentionally often show their “trump” cards from time to time.

So needless to say, I will be closely observing the tote analysis during the entire betting cycle of the Derby to see if I can pickup any specific betting patterns that help me make some final decisions about which entries to use in my Vertical action.
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[zico20]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Can Fierceness get off first, take a clear lead and essentially run and hide from the rest of the field in the Derby? Well, it would appear that he seemingly and clearly possesses the ability to do just that. However, I would say that he has a lot going against him in his attempt to see that plan come into fruition in this year's running of the KY Derby. He is running with 19 other horses and several that will be gunning for the front regardless. I believe the connections of Dornoch and possibly Track Phantom (Blinkers added) are of the belief that it just so happens to be the best path of success for their horses in this race. Come hell or high water they will be pressing Fierceness on the front end for the lead. This facet alone will in all likelihood create more pace than Fierceness is comfortable with. It will be interesting to see what Post Position he draws. With regard to Sierra Leone, I don't believe it is as important as he will probably settle in comfortably from wherever he may be drawn. Fierceness isn't a large horse, so, any jostling or bumping that might occur during the initial stages of the race won't be of any sort of benefit to him as well. Sierra Leone is my primary win bet and I will key him with hopefully a handful of prices underneath in the exotics. I am not entirely crazy, however. Additionally, I will be playing a couple of exotic tickets with Fierceness keyed on top with hopefully some longer prices underneath.

Best of Luck and Skill to all. Have a Fantastic Derby!!

The problem with Track Phantom is he doesn't run fast yet he is always on the lead. I can't see him running a sub 112 for six. Dornoch is the only other horse that would even consider pressing him. Everyone else is way too slow or are stalkers. The race doesn't have as much speed as many think!

[bisket]

Originally Posted by zico20

The problem with Track Phantom is he doesn't run fast yet he is always on the lead. I can't see him running a sub 112 for six. Dornoch is the only other horse that would even consider pressing him. Everyone else is way too slow or are stalkers. The race doesn't have as much speed as many think!

Which is one of the reasons I like Encino. I like him in a slow paced gut it out in the stretch where multiple horses figure for the win.

[Nitro]

Some interesting comments about the Fierceness workout today.

YouTube

[bisket]

Encino with a bullet this morning. I just lost another $10 on the dollar. It’ll be just my luck he’ll be the wise guy horse. Lol

[garywpt]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Some interesting comments about the Fierceness workout today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQXpJn1g7mY

And interesting comments about Forever Young at the end of the video

[burnsy]

The weather if it’s wet would concern me . But other than that you probably have to use this horse in exactas and tri’s . The race on a sloppy sealed track was one he probably “had” to win . It was most likely an all out effort and he clunked it. The Holy Bull I could really care less . He’s coming off the bench , I was right there at the Paddock rail and he looked a little disinterested and was most likely not fully cranked up . Probably needed one race and then to train harder . About 6 weeks later that horse looks like a different horse . He’s just gotta stay healthy and on the current path . The Florida Derby was a crusher all be it not the best field but the horse that had previously beat him was sent packing down the road …,.,, literally. And if his last work is any indication of what’s to come , he’s gonna be tough on this current crop. He also pretty much comes up faster than any of these horses. Look, it’s hard to win this race but I sort of feel leaving this horse out of the top three slots . Is kind of foolish .

[davew]

periodic thunderstorms forecast for Friday and Saturday - if sloppy track and tangled break, could be difficult to win

[azeri98]

I won't have him on top. Pletcher's record in the Derby is enough to take me off him. You don't just need talent but a lot of luck to win it.

[boys at tosconova]

this is the only horse in the race that's a must use.

[lamboguy]

getting back to the origination of this thread. this is probably the easiest question in the history of the running of the Kentucky Derby. only problem is i can't answer the question right now...

stay tuned to about 5 minutes prior to the race and i will give you the answer.

[Aerocraft67]

I may try to beat the favorite in the exacta, and use him as a saver in the trifecta.

Worst case, earn an unspectacular payoff with the other chalk in the exacta, but take all the favorite's money, and preserve a reasonable probability of winning. Best case, get a square price in there for a worthwhile play.

In the trifecta, don't play him third with the exacta selections already covered in that pool. Include bigger prices more generously in combos with .

Don't key him of course—allow scenarios without the favorite for the big payoff. Either avoid combos with only the top three choices—or dutch up the chalky numbers if they're really, really how the race looks to run.

You could forgive someone for chalking out entirely. The top two make a complementary early/late combo. Hell, you could dutch them to win for 7/8, better than a lot of prohibitive favorites day to day.

I'm not much against any of the top five. I can make a case for 3–5 of the longshots to outrun their odds, and a couple to get overbet. Should be able to work out an affordable dollar super.