Gunnevera or McCraken

[Mr. Pick 5]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Pretty sure Revolutionary hit the board, Frosted finished 4th, and that 50-1 turd sandwich Mine That Bird came from dead last if i remember correctly... that damn turd sandwich, i hate that horse! Take that horse out of it and I hot the win bet, exacta, tri, and super!!!!

How can you hate Mine That Bird???

That horse is an absolute legend....One of the biggest nukes of all time

Yea that horse lost me money, but that horse is what dreams are made of.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pick 5

How can you hate Mine That Bird???

That horse is an absolute legend....One of the biggest nukes of all time

Yea that horse lost me money, but that horse is what dreams are made of.

total turd sandwich! lol - I like rags to riches story California Chrome much better

[PowerUpPaynter]

In reference to McCraken how much credence do you guys put in the "his trainer knows how to point to a race" theory with McCraken's bluegrass? Seems like a load of crap to me, am I wrong for dismissing this?

That aside I think McCraken is flying under the radar a little

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

In reference to McCraken how much credence do you guys put in the "his trainer knows how to point to a race" theory with McCraken's bluegrass? Seems like a load of crap to me, am I wrong for dismissing this?

That aside I think McCraken is flying under the radar a little

Why would it seem like a load of crap? Don't you think gfted trainers know when to tighten the screws and when not to?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Why would it seem like a load of crap? Don't you think gfted trainers know when to tighten the screws and when not to?

its a million dollar race

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

its a million dollar race

Right and it's a PREP for 2 million dollar race.

If the Bluegrass was a $250k race, would you buy the theory?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Right and it's a PREP for 2 million dollar race.

If the Bluegrass was a $250k race, would you buy the theory?

Fair question and I still dont know. I guess I subscribe to the Herm Edwards theory that you play to win the game. Winning your final prep hasn't hurt any of the past 4 derby winners

[PowerUpPaynter]

Twitter

FIT. HEALTHY. SOUND.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

gunnevera-

dialed in, revolutionary, mylute, frosted, archx3..and i'm sure i'm missing many more really good deep closers. i can't even play the horse because of him be a deep closer. you simple are are up against it from being 18/19/20th. in the KD.....to make matters worse the horse gets compromised in smaller fields as well. he'll need a quick pace and plenty of luck...this coming on the heels of a short price in every exotic bet

as much as i think he's good enough, his racing style and large field negates almost everything positive imo

hassan chop

I can think of quite a few deep closers who've run well in the Derby: winners like Orb, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos and Unbridled all come to mind. Last year Exaggerated ran 2nd coming from far back. The Derby is a race where a deep closer DOES have a legit shot.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Fair question and I still dont know. I guess I subscribe to the Herm Edwards theory that you play to win the game. Winning your final prep hasn't hurt any of the past 4 derby winners

Likewise. Might as well win a graded stakes when you can. There's no guarantee the winner's circle will show up again... and it being the KY Derby is one of the smallest shots possible.

I will be using Gunnevera and McCraken underneath. I like Gunny and his rider more but the deep closing style comes with more risk. He will very likely have contested pace to run at but I predict it will be much like the FL Derby where he simply cannot get up for more than a piece. I'm not sure McCraken is any better than what he showed at Keeneland. His speed numbers have been pretty steady. Reminds me a bit of Mohaymen. Exposed at 9F but good enough to catch a piece of the super.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Likewise. Might as well win a graded stakes when you can. There's no guarantee the winner's circle will show up again... and it being the KY Derby is one of the smallest shots possible.

I will be using Gunnevera and McCraken underneath. I like Gunny and his rider more but the deep closing style comes with more risk. He will very likely have contested pace to run at but I predict it will be much like the FL Derby where he simply cannot get up for more than a piece. I'm not sure McCraken is any better than what he showed at Keeneland. His speed numbers have been pretty steady. Reminds me a bit of Mohaymen. Exposed at 9F but good enough to catch a piece of the super.

He shows an interesting pattern since the Saratoga Special - fifth then first; second then first; shows a third in the Florida. They took him way back in the Florida, checked him right at the start, turned him the rail, don't think that was the one they wanted, likely the next one.

The trainer here, Antonio, (can't says if I ever heard of him before this) has done an outstanding job w/this colt, knows he has a live one. I don't think I have ever seen such a series of stellar works - those 59s and then that 58, don't see them too often. This one appears to be stout and relishes the running, just breezin!

Given that extra couple hundred yards come the Derby, I'm a thinkin' he catches that front end. Bought a Dual Qualifier for 16k, nice buy.

[Dream_Police]

Take a look at Keenelands charts for the days leading up to the Blue Grass. If you were not within a couple of lengths of the lead you were not going to win and that was what played out on Bluegrass day. I will be playing McCraken on my tickets. A horse that was short and a track that was not going to let you make up ground and you have a horse in McCraken that has every right to bounce back big in the Derby.

[Dream_Police]

Don't hate Mine That Bird, hate Borel for giving him one of the GREAT rides in derby history.

[PhantomOnTour]

Gunnevera will likely be my key runner, depending on odds, late defections, etc...

My main concern is that while there's quite a few E/P types lined up, I see few if any bonafide E "lead or bust" types. So the pace may be crowded but not especially fast & destructive (see the American Pharaoh, Dortmund, Firing Line scenario...ran 1-2-3 all the way around).
But does Gunnevera even need a total meltdown to win it? I don't think so, and the recent sharp works indicate he may not be as far back as he has before.
Needs the right ride (who doesn't?) but as of now I have him as a top two threat.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I can think of quite a few deep closers who've run well in the Derby: winners like Orb, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos and Unbridled all come to mind. Last year Exaggerated ran 2nd coming from far back. The Derby is a race where a deep closer DOES have a legit shot.

71% Past 30 Derby Winners have been won by back of the pack horses ....

Just trying to help ...