THE '300' CLUB (Bris pace figs E1+E2+LP ≥ 300 in a pre-Derby race)

[Mr. Pick 5]

Originally Posted by Raider

No, you must have at least four legs, no three legged horse has ever won the derby

But a lot of 5 legged ones have

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Does seem to be more 'members' this year than usual.
Conquest Mo, Malagacy, Royal Mo may not make the gate (similar luck could have effected past years).

300 club is far from a guarantee of success. Some horses like Ocho Ocho Ocho have done it as Juveniles and faded to be 50-1 in the derby... Horses like Itsmyluckyday have ran big early preps and cooled-off by the time the had run their final prep. Also a few cases of off-tracks or extreme tracks where a race may have simply been too high.

I'm not going to be basing my betting on the '300 club', but it was something that I thought was interesting. Surprised that some prices like War Emblem and Funny Cide made the cut. Really just another on the long list of fun Derby Qualifications.

Have at it
was lucky enough to find a 'historic' PP file that goes from 2000-2013 . <-- opens in a pdf with a working search function(ctrl+F keys) if looking for specific name horses.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ckyDerby15.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
thank you KingChas for 2017 http://interactives.courier-journal....2017/derby.pdf

Thanks for posting this bro ... I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here ...but I have a question here ...

Do you think if we throw in a qualifier into the 300 club angle that it would ween out some of the losers ? Like for instance ...The last race had to be a big 5 race in which he finished no worse than 3 or 4 lengths behind ...

Thoughts bro ?

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Thanks for posting this bro ... I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here ...but I have a question here ...

Do you think if we throw in a qualifier into the 300 club angle that it would ween out some of the losers ? Like for instance ...The last race had to be a big 5 race in which he finished no worse than 3 or 4 lengths behind ...

Thoughts bro ?

Working on this baby ...looking for an edge ...thoughts ?

Not as knowledgeable as many in here but ..I'm trying here ....lol

2012 and 2013 Derby Horses that hat 300 or above and ITM horses which did not have the 300 angle ... Year Horse 300 Number less than 2 lengths behind in last big 5 race or won last 2013 Revolutionary ( 3rd Place ) 301 / Last Race G2 ( 1st Place ) Beyer 105
Golden Soul ( 2nd Place ) No 300 / Trainer Stewart improving beyer plus nice prev CD run
Mylute 302/ Last Race G2 (2nd Pl) improv beyer / but did not run well at CD prev race
Goldencents 308/Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) improv beyer/ No works at CD ?
Itsmyluckyday 322/ Last Race G1 ( 2nd Pl ) Decrease Beyer/
Verrazano 303/ Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl Wood Mem ) Pletcher Trained 1-49 Derby / Beyer same
Orb ( 1st Place ) No 300 /Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) / Decrease Beyer/ Jock Change Back to Rosario
Normandy Invasion ( 4th Place ) No 300 / Last Race G1 Wood ( 2nd Pl ) Improv Beyer/ Solid Trainer / Bumped in that race / 114 LP


2012 Take Charge Indy 309 / Last Race G1 (1st Pl ) / Decrease Beyer/Unknown Trainer / No CD Works
Union Rags 301/ Last Race G1 (3rd Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / This horse showed he liked CD ..IMO ..BAD LOSS
Dullahan ( 3rd Place ) 301 on Art Turf / Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) Improv Beyers / Showed a decent G1 close at CD earlier
Bodemeister ( 2nd Place ) 301 / Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) / Improv beyers ( won last by 9 lengths ) / Baffert and Jock Smith
Creative Cause 302 / Last Race G1 ( 2nd Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / Unknown Trainer / Decent Previous CD Race
Went The Day Well ( 4th Place ) No 300 / Last Race G3 on Art Turf(1st Pl ) / Improv Beyers / First Time Blinks / Avg Trainer Motion / Not a bad CD WO
Hansen 311 / Last Race G1 on Art Turf ( 2nd Pl ) Decrease Beyer/ So so trainer Maker / Did have a nice CD Race Previously
El Padrino 310/ Last Race G1 9 ( 4th Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / Pletcher 1-49 Derby / Jock Change /
I'll Have Another ( 1st Place ) No 300 / Last race G1 ( 1st Pl ) /Decrease Beyer /Long Shot Trainer O'Neill / Late Pace was 109 last race / Gamely ( Comments )


2011

[Robert Fischer]

Have fun w/ it. Good luck.


More of a 'notable achievement', than anything else.

The best filter you can add is handicapping knowledge, and common sense.


Some off-hand examples:
Sloppy track, unimpressive raw times(in other words, - a big adjustment by the figs), dream trip, juvy or early Derby trail + nothing close in final prep, extreme early pace but failed to win (e.g. 120 120 60 1 1 1 3rd4), slow final fractions in general,etc...


The reverse (290club?)(symbolic not numeric) is true for horses like American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, Street Sense, Curlin, Orb, etc...
Slow paced races,Stretch Runners,etc...
In that these guys are clearly contenders, in spite of sub 300 resumes.
Keep in mind, that there are two Early figs (2/3 of total). The Derby does favor the forwardly placed, and most have at least strong E2s , so '300' works (most of the time), in spite of favoring E E/P types.

[Mulerider]

Robert, the Bris Ultimate Summary has a helpful column showing Average EP1, EP2, and LP (along with another column for Best) Easy enough to get a total for each horse. Easy to calculate for the 300 factor from the BEST column. Do you see predictive value in the AVERAGE column?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Robert, the Bris Ultimate Summary has a helpful column showing Average EP1, EP2, and LP (along with another column for Best) Easy enough to get a total for each horse. Easy to calculate for the 300 factor from the BEST column. Do you see predictive value in the AVERAGE column?

I think Rsetup said it well when he differentiated between 'descriptive' and 'predictive'.

However, I do find the 'Average' column to be useful.

check these averages out:
e1, e2,lp,SPD
89 97 96 99
87 91 97 96

one of those is Classic Empire, and one of those is Girvin. A favorite, and a 10,15-1 type.

I think the 'Average' column raises two questions in context with members/non-members of '300';
1. a horse's ceiling, peak, or big-game race
2. whether or not the '300' was an abberation

as well, the 'Best' column is interesting to see horses who have adapted to show versatility.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?

No, but you can play O-line For NU this year.