2018-2019 HONG KONG

[rexjred]

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. May 11, 2019… 71st race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190511_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 Ultimate Glory (3-1) He draws a very weak Class 4 field and picks up Purton for the out, but he would rather run second and third than get up for the win and has only one win out of thirty six tries at Sha Tin.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 524 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 4th)
Race 5 Iron Bravo (26-1)
Race 5 Vital Spring (13-1)

Race 464 (Winners: 2nd & 9th, Second: 6th & 12th)
Race 6 Beauty Applause (even)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 The Alfonso (87-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Keep Winning (7-1)
Race 7 Good Standing (6-5)
Race 9 Raging Storm (5-1)
Race 9 Saul’s Special (8-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Lean Perfection (6-1)
Race 7 Superich (9-1)
Race 9 Refined Treasure (9-5)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 9 Speedy King (14-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Little Wise Man (4-5) He just missed out in his previous try at the downtown course while breaking from the 12 post and racing very rank. Again was unlucky at the draw getting the 11 hole which is almost impossible to overcome at The Valley going 6. He broke well but soon afterwards was slightly interfered with when Callan on Jolly Convergence who broke from the 12 post came over on top of him, he was four wide heading into the uphill backstretch coming out of the short turn. In the turn for home he raced three wide when the best part of the track that night was being near the rail. Then he drifted out to the six path entering the stretch and closed well beating the remaining field easily while unable to chase down Precious Sweetie who was conceding 14 pounds to Little Wise Man. Unlucky in love and unlucky at the draw again, he drew another outside post with the short run to the turn. His only saving grace there looks to be plenty of speed which may set up for him to close late.

Race 6 Beauty Applause (even) After winning his debut for fun and drawing the 2 post with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres, he looked the part of a very heavy favourite which he was. He broke well and Zac put him into a nice striking position while chasing Poon on Bullish Brother who eventually finished a well beaten ninth. In the turn he started to climb on Purton refusing to relax, at the 820 mark he had to be taken up when Poon put the brakes on the leader (he was reprimanded for it) and Zac ran right up on him. Then in the stretch when he was trying to make a winning move by splitting the top two Moreira's mount Beauty Applause drifted in on Prince Of Gems forcing him to be taken up again. Purton gave him a few whacks to see what was left in him but there wasn't much of a response so he wrapped up on him for the last 50 metres.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 6 Beauty Applause (even)
Race 10 Picken (9-2)

Longshots:
Race 9 Speedy King (14-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all to be run on Turf:
(Class from top to bottom) -(1)-Class-1, (1)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T….. 9-4-7 W/ 12-6-2 …..1:00 AM


R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T….… 8-1-4 W/ 3-14-7 .….1:30 AM


R#3– 1400M C4 (7F)T..…. 2-1-11 W/ 5-12-4 ….2:00 AM


R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T..…. 2-9-5 W/ 1-10-11 .….2:30 AM


R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 9-3-2 W/ 7-12-11 ……3:00 AM


R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…... 3-7-11 W/ 4-5-6 ..….3:35 AM


R#7– 1400M C1 (7F)T….. 5-8-11 W/ 10-6-7 …...4:05 AM


R #8- 1200M C3 (6F)T…… 8-6-9 W/ 7-5-11 …...4:40 AM


R #9- 1000M C2 (5F)T..… 2-1-9 W/ 5-4-3 ….….5:15 AM


R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 12-7-10 W/ 2-4-9 …....5:50 AM
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T….. 9-4-7 W/ 12-6-2 …..1:00 AM

6-9-8-11– Dutch Loss 90% Margin – $24.90 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T….… 8-1-4 W/ 3-14-7 .….1:30 AM

8-10-1-11– Big Dutch Win 153% Profit Margin /

[Ramblin]

Arrrgh! I didn't know they had a Saturday card today!!!
Time to get to work.

[Ramblin]

Originally Posted by Nitro

It turned out to be another fun and very profitable race card. There were many decent valued Quinellas and Triples that were hit. It was all high-lighted by a $157.80 Quinella and a $5,460.50 Triple box in the 3rd race.

Nitro, nice hit on that race 3 Weds morning! Well done sir!

[Nitro]

R#3– 1400M C4 (7F)T..…. 2-1-11 W/ 5-12-4 ….2:00 AM

14-5-13-10– Dutch Loss 15% Profit Margin-Passed

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Nitro, nice hit on that race 3 Weds morning! Well done sir!

Thanks Ramblin! Every so often there's a race that offers some really incredible value.
GL this morning!

[rexjred]

that tote board is incredible. 9 million on #2 in race 3 and the horse didn't even get show

[rexjred]

[Nitro]

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T..…. 2-9-5 W/ 1-10-11 .….2:30 AM

1-2-6-10– Dutch Loss 16% Profit Margin–Passed /$16.60 Quinella

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 9-3-2 W/ 1-12-11 ……3:00 AM

[Hypnotist1]

3 1 9 12 11 LONGSHOT 4

[Ramblin]

Let try this...
1-3,9,11-13 W

1-3,9,11-13 W
1-3,9,11-13