Just remember one thing, horses only run as fast as they have to. In the case of the #17 I feel if he has to run a little faster to hold off the closers then he will. I don’t think the post position will hurt him. I think he’ll break, clear the field and rate behind the early pace, the 2 sprinters and several other early horses, the 5-11-12-18 and maybe the 10. I hope the 2022 derby taught them shippers a lesson in pace handicapping.
And I hate when people say no horse ever won from a certain post position until they do like I’ll Have Another or Big Brown.
After checking the Thorograph numbers I have to respect the 8 horse on improving form. Ran a triple pattern of three 2’s. And staying with Thorograph #’s, only 2 horses sported 1’s in their form cycle: #2 (4-1) in last two , #11 in his last 2 races (1-1),a strong performance pattern. The 11 is 5/5 and last saw him at 8-1 and the 2 at 6-1. That being said the I think both the 2 and 17 are ready to improve off their last race. The 17 did a 4-neg 3.5 pattern in last two and the way he won geared down in last makes me think even if he regresses 3 points to a zero but so can the #2. Now that being said, the #3 has already run a (0). His pattern this year was a 9-0-3. He obviously bounced, but to a 3? I liked him in Arkansas derby, had a little trouble plus the form bounce and now I feel he can move forward off that race. Last saw him at 27-1. The #5 did a 9-3 in last two so I think he’s due for a regression. The #21 did a 3 in last but this will be his 12th start in 2 years (7&4). His pattern this year 8-9-7-3 and last year’s numbers were a lot higher. I think he plateaued already. The #4 did a 7-5-4 this year and the #7 did a 9-5. I don’t see any of these two getting down to a 1, maybe a 2 but I feel the winner will do a 0 or -1. The potential is there. So I feel there’s no more than 5 true contenders in this race. To get to the 8 or 3 several things may have to happen. The 2 who acted up in gate last time will have to wait for 18 other horses to load and then will have to get off the rail to get around horses without getting shut off, barring any pre race antics; the 17 not getting caught up in a speed duel should clear the field at the far turn and draw off. Sometimes that’s easier said than done. And the 11 has to live up to his billing. Even if one of the top 3 wins, the money has an always will be in the exotics. The payouts in the derby have always been excellent, to say the least. Other horses I like for the exotics besides the 8 & 3 but not for the roses would be the 4-5-7-14-16-18-19-20.
And the winner is the 17. I feel the horse won’t bounce, has something left in his tank after his last race and could run back to that neg 3.5 or neg 2. I’m looking at more than form. Looking at my pace program that I use I came to the conclusion that the 2 & 17 can both run a lot faster and can best the number they ran as 2 year olds. That’s what good 3 year olds do and they can stay at that level for months before regressing. Is it possible that my top 3 can run 1-2 or 1-2-3, absolutely but I hope not, I like big payouts. Who doesn’t ?.
One more point. Sometimes too much emphasis is placed on who ran the best in their final prep race. The derby winner doesn’t necessarily have to win their final prep race. Secretariat ran 4th in the Wood and came back to win the Triple Crown, setting track records in all three legs, and that’s why it wouldn’t be as big a stretch as you think if the 8 or 3 would upset the apple cart. Just look at some of the recent really good horses that did not win the derby: Point Given, Empire Maker, Curlin, Afleet Alex and Essential Quality. All champions as 3 year olds.
It’s not just horse racing, It’s The Derby!
“And the winner is……”
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