Oaks Day Notes

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Feels like you want to be close early going two turns, but there were a couple of horses that closed in the 2nd and 4th races yesterday from 8th early. Definitely need to be forwardly placed in any kind of sprint. Thorpedo Anna stole the day in romping fashion in the Oaks splashing along from gate to wire. Final time was a mere 1:50.83 when elders blitzed 1M in 1:35.02 in the 3rd. Undoubtedly the track changed quite a bit throughout the day, and nearly race to race. Not an easy day for figure makers.

Florent Geroux had himself a day. Personal P3 in the 5th, 6th and 7th yesterday. 3 wins, 3 seconds, and Show for his efforts on a monstrous pink lady day for him. Luis Saez got back on track as well after a bit of a tough start to this CD meet. Can Irad Ortiz only win on Brown mounts outside of NY and FL? The other Ortiz had a big day as well with 3 wins to his record and 3 shows.

Eddie Kenneally had 4 entrants and 3 of them hit the board. No wins, but certainly a solid day. Unfortunately, only has 1 entry today in the 14th. Cox and Mott barns continue to be very solid and you have to respect anything they put in a race at this joint. Brad Cox nearly has a horse or two in every field today while Mott saddles ones in the 2nd, 5th, 12th, 13th, and 14th.

Horses from Oaklawn, Keeneland, and Turfway continue to be dominant. Fair Grounds shippers seem to only contend on the green stuff. Gulfstream shippers are doing well on turf to boot.

The Japan horse T O Saint Denis nearly blew up the toteboard in the G2 Alysheba. Rushed out to an early 5 length lead and nearly walled them off till First Mission displayed his class and rolled on late. Interesting in that the jockey rides the more accomplished Forever Young today while riding for the T O Password trainers horse yesterday. Will the Japan horses look to blitz the field again like in 2022, or are other tactics possibly at hand?

Great day of racing ahead. Good luck everyone!

[Aerocraft67]

Thanks! I'm a poor student of track bias, so relieved to hear you weigh in.

Louisville had 0.45 inch of rain yesterday. Looks like modest chance of an afternoon storm or an hour of rain around Race 6 or so. I guess we'll otherwise have drying conditions all day.

Any wisdom on how to account for the surface today? Lacking more rain, we'll go from fast to faster? What's the Churchill drying bias cycle if we do get a proper rain?

For what it's worth, an old handicapping book notes that the Churchill dirt is actually an ideal surface wet. Of course it may have changed since the 20th century.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Thanks! I'm a poor student of track bias, so relieved to hear you weigh in.

Louisville had 0.45 inch of rain yesterday. Looks like modest chance of an afternoon storm or an hour of rain around Race 6 or so. I guess we'll otherwise have drying conditions all day.

Any wisdom on how to account for the surface today? Lacking more rain, we'll go from fast to faster? What's the Churchill drying bias cycle if we do get a proper rain?

For what it's worth, an old handicapping book notes that the Churchill dirt is actually an ideal surface wet. Of course it may have changed since the 20th century.

Churchill is fast when it is wet/sloppy. We saw yesterday horses just skipping along the track in some fast times and fractions.

The tough part is when it dries out and starts to get clumpy. That was the exact recipe when Mine That Bird won. The track had turned from sloppy to really muddy and even heavy. I have zero doubt that was a big part in his win that day as Borel drove him up the rail while others were fading fast in the mud and tiring badly.

As we all know, wet/off tracks vary greatly and can change from almost race to race. Maintenance crew will have their hands full today. Gotta keep a watchful eye if the track turns heavy. They supposedly changed things up a bit this year and made it deeper with more cushion. Thus far, I'm not seeing it being all that different than any other Churchill year in which speed is king.

[bisket]

Most times a drying track can be one of two things. The tiring type that helps closers or it can also be the type that you just can't run fast on at all. So there's very little passing and it kind of looks like a merry go round like a souped up fast track. If we get some wind it could play fair later in the day.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Cox/Geroux start the day rolling as a Pure Force right now.

[Bullet Plane]

According to Mike Maloney in his book Betting with an Edge, MTB rode a golden rail that day. A pace presser, PON finished behind him.

[bisket]

2nd race looked formful and the track seems to play fair. the favorite with strong middle move wins easily. One of the longshots stays on from the pace. The comes on late for 3rd

[Aerocraft67]

Rain is gathering just north of Bowling Green down to below Nashville but seems to be headed past Louisville to the south at the moment.

[Afleet]

seemed to me a lot of horses couldn't handle that track or my handicapping sucked. Im leaning to the former

[rastajenk]

I haven't heard the "cuppy track" excuse in quite a while; seems like Saturday might have been the kind of day to haul that one out again.