Derby Day play along. Good luck

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And I absolutely LOVE guys who post picks all day long and NEVER ACTUALLY KEEP TRACK OF RESULTS BASED ON REAL MONEY WAGERS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPLICITLY LAID OUT BEFORE THE RACE

Yeah, go ahead...box all these horses every race...we have no idea if you're winning or losing so that makes it easy...more redboarding

Hmmmmmm....

I believe I was hit with a TOS recently on something like this....

And

As for double standards , that sounds familiar too...

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Derby 150 is in the books, and as always it delivered.

Amid all the pomp, circumstance, and drama, it is still the greatest 2 minutes in all of sports.

It was a hell of a race. I had a few neighbors over that will not see another race for at least a year and they were riveted.

It was a hell of a trifecta. I'm gratified that I added after evaluating the undercard earlier in this thread, but could not get to him on top.

Couple lengths behind the tri, ran well to fill out the super, and a few more lengths back, T O Password was a bit of a shock in 5th, and Resilience was with him, having drawn some interest here. Next was Stronghold, closest thing we had to a PA wise guy horse this year.

The veered out of the gate toward the rail and dominoed horses down to in two surges. Forever Young to his inside had several lines of the chart devoted to the nightmare trip he overcame. That's otherwise an excuse for .

I knew my was in trouble using so much early to get that plum position and he didn't last. He earned that early run, though, I'll use him again for sure.

The favorite finished 15th, passed on both sides entering the lane and folded. Pretty much fulfilled that narrative after getting a decent early trip and good position.

Only way I can look back and see it differently after all that work I put in was to increase my resolve against enough to fit on top. I even threw in a sloppy last minute midpack exacta box that I missed by a nose.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Nitro has been posting his information for YEARS on this forum, and FOR YEARS has explained the how the key horses and the ones below are based on tote action. Now you want to give him a rash a shit because he uses the phrase "all of that one", which....simply means all the horses involved in the finish received associated wagering action?

You run a forum which relies on users to interact and provide worthwhile content, correct? And yet some users who don't conform to your fluid perceptions of correct posting standards are then raked over the coals, accused of redboarding, called losers, chicken-shot and braggarts?

Hardly seems constructive for creating a positive environment for the shrinking number of fans.....

Originally Posted by Saratoga

I believe I was hit with a TOS recently on something like this....

As for double standards , that sounds familiar too...

I'll bite on this again after getting into it years ago.

PA does an admirable job of indulging his opinion as a spirited forum participant while also moderating the forum. He's prickly, but not like he's banning Nitro because he doesn't like his tone.

Nitro deserves a big ration of shit. He posts obtuse information, elicits criticism, then responds to the criticism with condescension. Classic forum passive aggression.

This was his post before the race:

Originally Posted by Nitro

CD – Tote Analysis for the Derby

Race #12– 17-2 w/ 4-11-8-6-7-3 @ 30 mins to post

Nothing about wagers. Had you said that at a betting window, you would hold 12 losing exactas with .

This is his post after the race:

Originally Posted by Nitro

Race #12 = 3-2-11-4-10 = EX – TRI –& SUPER BX / All of that one!

Now we have a five horse box in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta that discards the losers and adds the fifth place finisher. I guess he didn't win the super hi five, because he added the after the race?

PA calls him out and we get this:

Originally Posted by Nitro

Apparently you don't understand what Keying an Entry means!

Both #17 & #2 were the Keys when playing Verticals.

"All of that one" refers to the Verticals - EX / TRI & SUPER Boxed

Not very difficult to understand!

Besides I was under the impression that "Red-boarding" was posting successful results without having posted the selections prior to post time.

I know you just love the fact that I play the game just following the money. Who knows? Some day you might get it.

It is difficult to understand, becuase it's Nitro that doesn't understand what keying an entry means. Keying is not boxing, neither of which he instructed in the pre-race Derby post.

Let's give him the benefit of the doubt that we are to key box the favorite with the 3rd through 8th favorites, and key box the second favorite with the same 3rd through 8th favorites. That's 24 exactas, 90 trifectas, and a whopping 960 superfectas (at a dollar minimum).

Or maybe he means full boxes. That's 84 exactas, 210 trifectas, and 1,680 superfectas.

Maybe you get away with that in the Derby, and it worked out yesterday. Otherwise I defy anyone to endorse seven-horse boxes of the top eight favorites as a winning strategy, regardless of tote action, which is thoroughly exceptional for the Kentucky Derby.

He's not including the first and second favorites together, so I guess that's something. Otherwise you just might argue that the information he's posting is so disingenuous as to be harmful to this fine forum.

Finally, just for fun:

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’m a bit perplexed by those who have 2nd thoughts about Fierceness’ potentials because of 2 failed races. I can easily throw out the Champagne stakes due to the sloppy track condition which it obviously did not like. But for those of you who don’t understand how the track condition can affect a true speed horse, then please do yourself a favor and take a peek at ALL the fractions in the Holly Bull stakes. Do you believe for a minute that they were actually running on one might consider to be a “Fast” track? If you do, then you’re destined to dismiss Fierceness capabilities and resort to wishful thinking about the remaining entries. You might also want to take a look at its troubled start in that race.

Horses like this don’t come along every year, but when they do, they’re the ones that can control every aspect of a race. If they’re good enough they’ll repeatedly dust those behind them, especially when none have demonstrated any real speed.

If you can’t tell already, I’m a Fierceness fan and will be on him no matter which post position it’s in or what the track condition turns out to be. If the others want to beat him, they’ll have to try and keep up by DRAMATICALLY improving upon their past performances.
(Has any other entry managed to run a "modest" 35 and change for a mile?). And I can't even imagine what happens if it makes an improvement over that "geared down" mile and 1/8th performance!
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I wonder how all those hapless punters are feeling now, who don't understand how the track condition can affect a true speed horse, dismissed Fierceness's capabilities, overlooked his troubled start in the Holy Bull, and resorted to wishful thinking about the remaining entries—who finished in the 14 places ahead of the favorite. Poor bastards.

[Poindexter]

Fwiw, I am pretty sure Nitro’s prescribed betting strategy is to. key the 2 top horses to either win, come second or third. Thus if either comes first, second or third and he completes the tri or super with the rest of his horses he will consider himself hitting it. Thus the meaning of all of that one. In the derby where a 2 dollar superfecta would have paid $16,500 the cost would have been over $2000. Obviously if he pulled the trigger he is all smiles. Then when you get to exactas I assume he requires either of his 2 keys to come 1st or 2nd. In the case of the derby it would have been 14 combos. I don’t recall him ever mentioning any kind of weighting. Of course if his top choices run 1-2 he will proclaim cold which indicates that maybe there should be some kind of weighting. I also think that if one of his 8 horses came 5th he would have taken credit for the super high 5. On the win end I know he will Dutch his top choices if the cost is under a certain amount. He used to post that figure when he posted Hong Kong races.

Fwiw, I think there is some merit to the tote method he uses. I don’t agree with his betting strategy. But it does create a number of “all of that one”. He has posted a large sample of races over the years, so if anyone wants to spend the time to calculate his roi by pool, the info is there.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Fwiw, I am pretty sure Nitro’s prescribed betting strategy is to. key the 2 top horses to either win, come second or third. Thus if either comes first, second or third and he completes the tri or super with the rest of his horses he will consider himself hitting it. Thus the meaning of all of that one. In the derby where a 2 dollar superfecta would have paid $16,500 the cost would have been over $2000. Obviously if he pulled the trigger he is all smiles. Then when you get to exactas I assume he requires either of his 2 keys to come 1st or 2nd. In the case of the derby it would have been 14 combos. I don’t recall him ever mentioning any kind of weighting. Of course if his top choices run 1-2 he will proclaim cold which indicates that maybe there should be some kind of weighting. I also think that if one of his 8 horses came 5th he would have taken credit for the super high 5. On the win end I know he will Dutch his top choices if the cost is under a certain amount. He used to post that figure when he posted Hong Kong races.

Fwiw, I think there is some merit to the tote method he uses. I don’t agree with his betting strategy. But it does create a number of “all of that one”. He has posted a large sample of races over the years, so if anyone wants to spend the time to calculate his roi by pool, the info is there.

No offense, but someone that posts $2 Trifecta and $2 Super winners on the regular needs to show some receipts.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Then when you get to exactas I assume he requires either of his 2 keys to come 1st or 2nd. In the case of the derby it would have been 14 combos.
Of course if his top choices run 1-2 he will proclaim cold
He has posted a large sample of races over the years, so if anyone wants to spend the time to calculate his roi by pool, the info is there.

I should have added, had they run -, he would have taken credit for that as well. Which basically means a full box of the top eight favorites.

He can't come back and say it was supposed to be a double key, because that's a loser.

I tallied a dozen or so he posted a few years ago, and it came out profitable. Again, I defy anyone to endorse a strategy of boxing the top 40% of the chalk as a winning strategy. Never mind stating it clearly and forthrightly.

[Nitro]

I find it sort of humorous that many here don’t know how to use Key selections when structuring Vertical wagers. Perhaps it’s because they use other betting strategies and are not familiar with this technique.

As some have thankfully mentioned, I have in fact explained this numerous times on the PA forum BEFORE posting my selections. The idea is to reduce the overall bet outlay by using just 2 Key entries in key positions with other entries.

(Keep in mind that generally when I play Verticals either one of the Key entries selected has to finish 1st or 2nd in a mix of combos with the other entries of interest).

For those needing a further explanation please refer to the following:
Note: The 2 Key entries are to the Left of the “W” (meaning With) & Highlighted below.
Those entries to the Right of “W” are the other entries of interest.

In races with 6 or 7 entries & 4 entries selected - 1-2 W / 3-4
EXACTAS: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4 & reversed = 6 combos @ $2 ea = $12
EXACTAS: 2-3, 2-4 & reversed = 4 combos @ $2 ea = $8
Total 10 Key Combos bet= $20 (Alt. Boxing all 4 = 12 combos = $24)

In races with 6 or 7 entries & 4 entries selected - 1-2 W / 3-4
TRIPLES: 1-2-3, 1-3-4, 1-2-4 & bot 2 reversed = 6 combos @ $2 ea = $12
TRIPLES: 2-1-3, 3-2-4, & bot 2 reversed = 4 combos @ $2 ea = $8
Total 10 Key Combos bet= $20 / (Alt. Boxing all 4 = 24 combos = $48)

In races with 8 to 12 entries & 5 entries selected - 1-2 W / 3-4 -5
EXACTAS: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5 & reversed = 8 combos @ $2 ea = $16
EXACTAS: 2-3, 2-4, 2-5 & reversed = 6 combos @ $2 ea = $12
Total 14 Key Combos bet = $28 / (Alt Boxing all 5 = 20 combos = $40)

In races with 8 to 12 entries & 5 entries selected - 1-2 W / 3-4 -5
TRIPLES: 1 / 2-3-4-5/ 2-3-4-5 = 4x3 = 12 combos x $2 = $24
TRIPLES: 2-3-4-5 / 1 /2-3-4-5 = 4x3 = 12 combos x $2 = $24
TRIPLES: 2 / 3-4-5 / 1-3-4-5 = 3x3 = 9 combos x $2 = $18
TRIPLES: 3-4-5 / 2 /1-3-4-5 = 3x3 = 9 combos x $2 = $18
Total 42 Key Combos bet= $84 / (Alt Boxing all 5 = 60 combos = $120)

In races with 8 to 12 entries: 5 entries selected - 1-2 W / 3-4 -5
SUPERS: 1 / 2-3-4-5/ 2-3-4-5 / 2-3-4-5 = 4x3x2 = 24 x $2 = $48
SUPERS: 2-3-4-5 / 1 /2-3-4-5 /2-3-4-5 = 4x3x2 = 24 x $2 = $48
SUPERS: 2 / 3-4-5 / 1-3-4-5 / 1-3-4-5 = 3x3x2 = 18 x $2 = $36
SUPERS: 3-4-5/ 2 /1-3-4-5 / 1-3-4-5 = 3x3x2 = 18 x $2 = $36
Total 84 Key Combos bet= $168 / (Alt Boxing all 5 = 120 combos = $240)
(Note I put this together pretty fast so there may be some typos).

It’s unfortunate that for what ever reasons some people can’t appreciate and won’t acknowledge the value derived from some posted selections. In the future should I decide to continue to share what I believe to be worthwhile information, I will probably disregard my desire to also post the potential results of the $2 Vertical bets. I guess if you’re really interested you can figure out for yourself.
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[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Not sure what your beef is.....bad Derby day?

Not in the least. I made money. Picks posted in the Derby picks thread

Of course, I let everyone know I lost all my exotic picks and was only saved because I posted a win bet on Mystik Dan. I had Mystik Dan posted as one of my "WITH" horses just like Nitro. I guess what I really should have done is come on the board after the race and written "HAD ALL OF THAT!" LMAO

I'm not sure why you would even post such a nonsense question to me like that?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Hmmmmmm....

I believe I was hit with a TOS recently on something like this....

And

As for double standards , that sounds familiar too...

Life isn't fair...news flash

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Life isn't fair...news flash

Yep...especially with people that have the power

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I find it sort of humorous that many here don’t know how to use Key selections when structuring Vertical wagers.

What's sort of humorous is that many here know perfectly well what a key is and how to call out wagers accordingly, while you continue making a condescending spectacle of yourself to the contrary.

Go to your Twinspires account, choose a vertical wager, select the "key" option, fill in your selections, and you will get a wager with your key on top with others boxed underneath. That's all.

You are seeking a "key box." And an optional box.

Here's what you posted for the Derby: "17-2 w/ 4-11-8-6-7-3."

Here are the wagers we were supposed to glean from that in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.

Key box with
Key box with
Optional box

That would have saved you a lot of pedantic typing and ire. Or maybe you just want the attention.

Originally Posted by Nitro

It’s unfortunate that for what ever reasons some people can’t appreciate and won’t acknowledge the value derived from some posted selections.

Your "selections" for the Derby were the top eight favorites. We all appreciate and acknowledge the value derived from that. It is ridiculous.

[rastajenk]

At least he eliminated all the no-hoper's for us. We should be more grateful.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Yep...especially with people that have the power

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

What's sort of humorous is that many here know perfectly well what a key is and how to call out wagers accordingly, while you continue making a condescending spectacle of yourself to the contrary.

You are seeking a "key box." And an optional box.

That would have saved you a lot of pedantic typing and ire. Or maybe you just want the attention.

You seem to think that just because you’re aware of Keying and Key boxing that everyone else is too. Do you always speak for all the members here? BTW didn’t I mention the term “boxing” in conjunction with “keying” previously which you conveniently negated in one of your comments?

Sorry if you feel that my comments were condescending. That was not their intention, believe me.

When I post selection information, I’m not trying to get any attention for myself. No, actually the purpose is simply to share what I believe to be good and current information about a particular horse race. Apparently, what you and a few others disagree with is my subsequent posts illustrating the potential monetary results of the selections posted.

You’ve got to understand that it’s no mystery that my presence on this forum over the years has obviously disturbed many of the traditional handicappers (including you apparently). That’s because I completely rely on a sophisticated tote analysis methodology. Illustrating its race-by-race results is my way of demonstrating its credibility on a consistent basis. It also rubs people the wrong way because it has shown time and again an alternate way of playing a game which BTW I thoroughly enjoy. And you can read into that statement any way you like.

While I do still enjoy speed handicapping from time to time (Like for the TC prep and TC races) I will always prefer to use the results from the tote analysis for betting purposes.

BTW its funny how you keep referring to just the KY Derby race. There were 3 other races with my posted selections (and their results) on this thread. But in case you missed them, and just for the record they ALL produced winning Vertical results.

If my future posts bother you that much why not just do yourself a favor and ignore them entirely.
Thanks and GL!
Nick
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[Saratoga]

This is the kind of stuff the site needs to control instead of joining in and

condoning it....