Race of the Day -- TRACK PHANTOM

[Track Phantom]

SA 10/10/16 R4 MSW 52K, 6.5F TURF (2:00)

13 RED LIVY 6-1
8 OH SCATTY OH 8-1
2 CIAO BELLA ROSA 5-2
7 CYNTHIANA 4-1

PICK: 13 RED LIVY (6-1)
D’Amato has two wins and two seconds with Euro shippers into the US and in a MSW. Those are his only 4 starters of such. This runner beat 15 foes in the debut. 1st and 4th ran 2nd and 3rd in a G3 afterwards. Picks up Bejarano for this.

VALUE: 8 OH SCATTY OH (8-1)
Trainer Miller has had a huge start here at this meet. This one was bet down to 5-1 in the debut and had a difficult trip when floated out wide on the far turn. Bred to like turf. Dam won 3x on grass and was stakes placed. Expect better.

A) 2,8,13
B) 4,7,11
C) 1,3,9,10

[Track Phantom]

Keeneland and Santa Anita sheets for Friday, 10/14/16

SA 10/14/16 R1 MDN CLM 75K, 1M TURF (1:00)

6 TIZ ADORE 2-1
7 TANDORA 5-1
3 DUST IT 5-2
2 SUMMERTIMEMISCHIEF 7-2

PICK: 6 TIZ ADORE (2-1)
She got out of the gate slowly in a few of her races. She finished in front of a next out MSW winner, Boat Drinks, two back, despite the bad break. She ended up going wide in her last start but was a game 2nd at 14-1. Seems like she’s in a reasonable spot. Late run to win this.

VALUE: 7 TANDORA (5-1)
The dam was grade 3 placed on the turf and earned 358k in her career (won 2x on the grass). Added blinkers last time out and she was pulling and got into a bit of traffic. May love surface change.

A) 6
B) 2,3,7
C) 5,8

[Track Phantom]

BEL 10/15/16 R1 MSW 75K, 1M DIRT (12:55)

1 NEWMAN 2-1
6 YOU’RE TO BLAME 5-2
4 AVAIL EKATI 5-1
2 OUTRUN 3-1

PICK: 1 NEWMAN (2-1)
Ran 3rd to undefeated, 2x G1 winner, Practical Joke. He made an early move to get to the pacesetters and actually hung in well for 3rd at 14-1. Dam never raced but is half to G1 Fla Dby winner, Scat Daddy (won graded stakes at 2). Was wide in last but saves ground here.

VALUE: 4 AVAIL EKATI (5-1)
2nd dam is the 2005 BC Distaff winner, Pleasant Home (won 4 of 8 routes). He is a 500k purchase and did make up a bit of ground in the debut. First Lasix, added distance and bullet drill on 10/4.

A) 1,6
B) 2,4
C) 3,5

[Track Phantom]

SA 10/16/16 R4 CLM 12K, 6F DIRT (2:00)

1 DREAM NAVIGATOR 10-1
3 FAITH PACER 8-1
6 FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ 4-1
9 PRINCESS KENDRA 8-1

PICK: 1 DREAM NAVIGATOR (10-1)
She had almost no shot in her last start vs much stronger company (top 3 came back to win allw or better). She has the best early speed and this rider should gun her to the lead to hold the inside. Has a sharp work since last. Think she can carry them a long way at big odds.

VALUE: 3 FAITH PACER (8-1)
Was 9-1 on the class drop in last, race that was common to many in here. She missed the break pretty badly and did not get into the race. Rider stays here for another drop. Should figure today.

A) 1,3
B) 2,6,9
C) 2,4,5

[Track Phantom]

Keeneland and Santa Anita full card analysis sheets for Sunday, 10/23/16 at the link in the signature below. Santa Anita will be ready at about 1PM CT today

SA 10/23/16 RACE 3 ANOAKIA 70K, 6F DIRT (1:30)
​
5 AMERICAN GAL 1-5
1 BERNINA STAR 9-2
4 WOOT WOOT 6-1
3 VELVET JONES 12-1
​
PICK: 5 AMERICAN GAL (1-5)
This has the look of a major mismatch. This filly won with something left when beating a solid field of MSW. 2nd, 3rd won MSW next. Female line produced superstar sprinter, Reynaldothewizard. Working in typically fast Baffert-like fashion. Her maiden field was stronger.
​
VALUE: 1 BERNINA STAR (9-2)
Looks like the only one with a real shot at beating the top pick. She cost 300k and fired at 50-1 in the debut despite the fact that Cassidy rarely has them at 100% in their first start. Saves ground.
​
A) 5
B) 1
C) 3,4

[Track Phantom]

Turf Paradise analysis sheet is free at the link in the signature

10/24/16 TUP R1 CLM 8K, 5.5F TURF (12:55)

1 SUCCESSFULPOCKET 2-1
6 PEPPERMINT KITTY 6-5
2 EMMA’S PARADE 6-1
5 BACK STOP 15-1

PICK: 1 SUCCESSFULPOCKET (2-1)
She was with Doug Oliver here for a 4th place finish in the ATBA Stakes as the 6-5 favorite. Was very wide in last but closed for 2nd in a race stronger than this. 3rd came back to win in 8k claimer at Fresno as the 2-1 fav. Oliver won 6 of 14 closing the Cby meet. Saves ground.

VALUE: 2 EMMA’S PARADE (6-1)
Canterbury shipper was 2nd in a similar spot two back despite having to go very wide in there. Was painfully wide in her last start on a track that was favoring speed. Pace might unfold to her liking.

A) 1
B) 2,6
C) 4,5

[Track Phantom]

10/26/16 KEE R5 MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (3:18)

11 UNTAPPED 8-5
6 CLEVER SERVE 5-1
3 ANALYZE 15-1
2 RING ME UP 8-1

PICK: 11 UNTAPPED (8-5)
Sibling to 3.9M winner, Untapable, and 1.7M turfer Paddy O’Prado. She ran 2nd in the debut in an excellent effort. She set fast fractions and hung in gamely. Asmussen much better with 2nd timers. She outworked a 2x G3 winner, Terra Promessa. She will be razor sharp here.

VALUE: 3 ANALYZE (15-1)
This is a solid pedigree that has many route stakes winner in the female tree. Debut was simply a prep for longer and she gets the added distance here. Has a strong breeze at Fair Hills since debut.

A) 11
B) 2,3,6
C) 1,4,7,8,10,12

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

10/26/16 KEE R5 MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (3:18)

11 UNTAPPED 8-5
6 CLEVER SERVE 5-1
3 ANALYZE 15-1
2 RING ME UP 8-1

PICK: 11 UNTAPPED (8-5)
Sibling to 3.9M winner, Untapable, and 1.7M turfer Paddy O’Prado. She ran 2nd in the debut in an excellent effort. She set fast fractions and hung in gamely. Asmussen much better with 2nd timers. She outworked a 2x G3 winner, Terra Promessa. She will be razor sharp here.

VALUE: 3 ANALYZE (15-1)
This is a solid pedigree that has many route stakes winner in the female tree. Debut was simply a prep for longer and she gets the added distance here. Has a strong breeze at Fair Hills since debut.

A) 11
B) 2,3,6
C) 1,4,7,8,10,12

Excellent call and great handicapping...kudos!

[Track Phantom]

10/28/16 SA R1 CLM 16K, 1M DIRT (1:00)

5 MIDNIGHT CANDY 6-5
3 NAZARETH 5-1
2 OLOTTA SHAKEN 3-1
1 TRINITYS TURN 4-1

PICK: 5 MIDNIGHT CANDY (6-5)
Big class drop after running 3rd at 15-1 vs starter allw foes at LRC. The winner came back to win a 40k claimer on turf at 8-1. The 5th place finisher won at 29-1 vs turf 25k claimers. Only other one to run back was 7th, beaten ½ at 3-1 vs better. She’s run very well here at SA.

VALUE: 3 NAZARETH (5-1)
Trainer has had 12 starters. 10 of them flopped badly and missed the board but the 2 first timers were both beaten in a photo at 37-1 and 71-1. Claimed from a similar spot in last. Back to Baze here.

A) 5
B) 1,2,3
C) 4,6

[Track Phantom]

10/29/16 SA R1 OPT CLM 20K, 6.5F TURF (12:30)

6 BRANDOTHEBARTENDER 3-1
4 SMOKEY’S LEGACY 6-1
2 ANATOLIAN HEAT 7-2
1 HOT MARKET 6-1

PICK: 6 BRANDOBARTENDER (3-1)
Desormeaux was aboard for an upset at 8-1 in his debut in his only start coming down-the-hill here. Forget the start 3 back when he was on a sloppy track w/ blinkers on, which were removed right after. 3rd from last won easily next as a 2-1 2nd choice. Sharp worktab for this.

VALUE: 4 SMOKEY’S LEGACY (6-1)
Added blinkers three starts back but it apparently didn’t work the way Miller was hoping as they come off here. Was pulling routing so moving him back to a sprint. He has been close to top choice.

A) 6
B) 1,2,4
C) 3,7,8,10

[Track Phantom]

10/30/16 SA R1 MSW 52K, 1M TURF (12:30)

1 KONA DREAMS 9-2
3 CUT 2-1
2 VAN CORTLANDT 7-2
5 ODYSSEY EXPLORER 10-1

PICK: 1 KONA DREAMS (9-2)
Debut runner for a trainer who doesn’t have a first timer win on the turf but he did have one run 2nd vs similar at 7-1. Lots of turf in the female family. Works have gotten better over time. Sold for 10x sire fee. Top rider adds to appeal. Check the betting for more clues here.

VALUE: 5 ODYSSEY EXPLORER (10-1)
Sire won 4.2M on the turf and the dam is by Kris S (solid turf influence). Took a bit of money in the debut and ran on ok after some early trouble. He’s back w/ a string of works on the main track.

A) 1,3
B) 2,5
C) 6,8

[Track Phantom]

11-4-16 SANTA ANITA RACE 7 (3:05)
DIRT MILE (G1), $1M, 1M DIRT

9 GUN RUNNER 9-2
3 DORTMUND 6-5
1 VYJACK 10-1
2 TOM’S READY 12-1
8 TAMARKUZ 8-1

1st: 9 GUN RUNNER (9-2)
Love him at the mile distance. His running style is absolutely perfect for this race. He gets into the race and sits quietly behind the other speed. The speed will be fast and contested setting up for him to get the first jump. Dam won 7 of 12 for 405k and half to 4.5M earner, BC Classic winner, Saint Liam. Beat 10 in Travers despite 15 from Arrogate. Should get an ideal trip if he’s good enough.

2nd: 3 DORTMUND (6-5)
Most people feel Dortmund the most likely winner of the 13 Breeders’ Cup races. It’s a very logical viewpoint after he chased the top rated horse in the world 3x in a row. His only losses have come to horses who are Ky Derby winners. Blinkers added in last. Back to Garcia, 7 for 9 on him. Wins if top choice falters at all. He looks the one to beat here.

3rd: 1 VYJACK (10-1)
Was against him in the Hope since he was in off the vet’s list. However, he proved what was ailing him is not a concern as he really exploded in the lane. He’s won over $1M on the dirt so the move back to this surface is just fine. Had little chance to run down the classy winner two back in the 3 horse field when winner was left alone early. Late run.

A) 3,9 B) 1,2 C) 6,7,8

HISTORICAL TRENDS (9 Years): There was a 6 year run of no favorites in the top 3 before Goldencents and Liam’s Map won as fav’s the last two years. Running style been fair with 3 speed, 3 stalkers, 3 closing winners. Last BC at SA, Goldencents wired the field at 3-5 on a surface seriously speed favoring. The Kelso at BEL has been key prep for this.

[Track Phantom]

11/5/16 SA R9 TURF (G1), $4M, 1M 1/2 TURF

10 FOUND 3-1 Moore
4 FLINTSHIRE 5-2 Castellano
12 HIGHLAND REEL 3-1 Heffernan
9 MONEY MULTIPLIER 20-1 Velazquez
6 MONDIALISTE 15-1 Tudhope

1st: 10 FOUND (3-1)
Ran 2nd twice to the best Euro turf horse, Almanzor, who has won 8 of 10 starts in his career. In between, all she did was win the Arc de Triomphe. In the exacta in 17 of 20 career starts. One off the board was a very troubled trip in the 2015 Arc. She then ran 2nd in the Qipco, same race ran 2nd in a few weeks ago, before a classy win over Arc de Triomphe winner, Golden Horn at Kee. Turf routes have favored the closers this meet.

2nd: 4 FLINTSHIRE (5-2)
After running 2nd in the 2015 Arc and again to today’s foe, Highland Reel in the 2015 prestigious Hong Kong Vase, he was moved to top US trainer, Chad Brown. He thoroughly toyed with US competition before his poor effort in the Turf Classic. The question is if he’s on the decline or just didn’t care for the surface. He’s in with a deep field and will need to revert to his 2015 form to beat top foes. Honing in on $9M in earnings.

3rd: 12 HIGHLAND REEL (3-1)
Third of the big three Euro’s and he’s got much more early speed than the other two. In fact, he shipped to the US once, in 2015 in the G1 Secretariat Stakes and he went wire to wire w/ condescending ease to win by 5 lengths (earned 100 fig in there). Beat Flintshire in the ’15 HK Vase and he did so gamely, re-rallied when Flintshire moved to him. Can win this w’ a decent trip.

A) 4,10 B) 9,12 C) 2,3,5,6,7

HISTORICAL TRENDS (32 Years): This race has all about Euro shippers and deep closers, including last year when Found won this race from midfield some 26 lengths off a tear away leader. Euro’s have now won 21 of 32 all-time (66%) and deep closers have won 15 of 32 (47%). Aidan O’Brien has won this race 3 of the last 5 years and been 1st or 2nd in 7 of the last 15 years, winning it outright 5x.

[Track Phantom]

11/11/16 DMR R6 STR ALLW 16K, 1M 1/8 TURF (3:02)

4 BIRD E HOUSE 8-1
8 RYE PATCH 5-2
1 RYE 3-1
7 WINNING CAUSEWAY 15-1

PICK: 4 BIRD E HOUSE (8-1)
The Del Mar turf course has favored the deeper closers at the longer distances over the last few years. this one will be far off the pace, a pace that could be a fast one. Lone turf win came here when off at 51-1 at this level 14 months ago. Big rider move. Playable at a long price.

VALUE: 7 WINNING CAUSEWAY (15-1)
Never easy to claim one away from the supertrainer, Diodoro. He is 4 for 5 in the exacta on the turf and projects the perfect trip stalking the pace. Baze was up for the maiden win at GG when he won back in April. Consider for exotics.

A) 1,4,8
B) 3,7,9
C) 2,5,6,11

[Track Phantom]

11/12/16 DMR R1 MSW 52K, 1M 1/16 TURF (12:30)

4 DARK ENERGY 4-1
3 PAPPOU 8-1
1 BEDEVILED 6-1
5 AZTEC WARRIOR 3-1

PICK: 4 DARK ENERGY (4-1)
Drew the rail and was forced to go into the early pace a bit sooner. Like where he's drawn and the likely pace flow he'll see in here. He comes back here with 4 solid drills for Shirreffs. Last was career best for him. Looks to be moving in the right direction. Slight lean, tough race.

VALUE: 3 PAPPOU (8-1)
He had some bad traffic trouble in the last two starts, really steadied badly in the start two back. Last time out, that early pace was slow over that track and he tried to move soon and was checked up. Van Dyke back. Better trip this time.

A) 3,4
B) 1,5
C) 2,6,8