Week 6 -- MLFs less than 3-1 @SAR Review - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheOracle · 08-14-2019, 12:45 PM

Falcone has this in the 4th today at Saratoga

Code:

1	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY)	Allowance	One And One Eighth Miles	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	Turf

Let's see if he can get this one to the winner's circle today and start the week on the right foot!!!

TheOracle · 08-15-2019, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Falcone has this in the 4th today at Saratoga

Code:

1	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY)	Allowance	One And One Eighth Miles	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	Turf

Let's see if he can get this one to the winner's circle today and start the week on the right foot!!!

We sniffed out a win yesterday as Morning Line Favorites won 5 out of 9 races yesterday

Code:

1	08-14-2019	1st race	7	Snap Decision (KY)	Alw	        Turf Firm	2 1/16 MJ O Fisher	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.9
2	08-14-2019	2nd race	5	Beyond Gone (KY)	Mdn Spcl	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	K G McPeek	1/1#	W	3.3	2.4	2.1
3	08-14-2019	3rd race	4	Aristocratic (KY)	Clm	        Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	S			2.8
4	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY).    	Alw	        Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	W	4.9	3.4	2.6
5	08-14-2019	5th race	4	My Bronx Tail (KY)	Mdn Spcl	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	M Nevin	        5/2#	W	6.7	3.2	2.4
6	08-14-2019	6th race	3	Astoria Kitten (NY)	Mdn Spcl	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	5/2#				
7	08-14-2019	7th race	5	Kimari (KY)	        Stakes	        Turf Firm	5.5 FurlW A Ward	3/5#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
8	08-14-2019	8th race	7	Allured (KY)	        Clm	        Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	3/5#				
9	08-14-2019	9th race	7	Harv Wont Tap (KY)	Clm	        Turf Firm	1 1/16 MB R Brown	5/2#				
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	9	5	0	1	55.5%	$22.2	$18	$4.2	23%						
                                        WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
                                        66.6%	$51.4	$54	$-2.6	-5%	14.9

MLFs less than 3-1 had a field day at the Spa winning 5 out of 9 races on Wednesday

Congratulations to those who saw the #7 Gosilently play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle · 08-15-2019, 12:24 PM

Let's focus on these MLFs today at Saratoga

I suspect Morning Line Favorites will not do well today as they had a good day yesterday

Code:

pick08-15-20192	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	7 Furlongs	A Delacour	9/5#	Dirt
pick08-15-20193	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)	Claiming			1 1/8 Miles	T A Pletcher	9/5#	Turf

pick08-15-20192	08-15-2019	7th race	12	Cash Offer (NY)	Allowance			5.5 Furlongs	M A Hennig	2/1#	Turf
pick08-15-20193	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)Maiden Special Weight		One Mile	C Clement	2/1#	Turf

Let's see if at least 2 of these can get to the winner's circle!!!

TheOracle · 08-15-2019, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Let's focus on these MLFs today at Saratoga

I suspect Morning Line Favorites will not do well today as they had a good day yesterday

Code:

pick08-15-20192	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	7 Furlongs	A Delacour	9/5#	Dirt
pick08-15-20193	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)	Claiming			1 1/8 Miles	T A Pletcher	9/5#	Turf

pick08-15-20192	08-15-2019	7th race	12	Cash Offer (NY)	Allowance			5.5 Furlongs	M A Hennig	2/1#	Turf
pick08-15-20193	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)Maiden Special Weight		One Mile	C Clement	2/1#	Turf

Let's see if at least 2 of these can get to the winner's circle!!!

We only managed to get 1 winner today from the above picks

Code:

res08-15-20192	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
res08-15-20193	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	

res08-15-20192	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 M	C Clement	2/1#	W	5.5	3.4	3.0

#12 Cash Offer was scratched

#3 No Dozing and #11 Dull Knife were just awful disappointments today as they both finished off the board. The 9-5 Morning Line Favorites have now lost 12 in a row so far at the Spa

However, #8 Kerrys Ring came through for us and paid $11.90 across the board not too shabby for a 2-1 Morning Line!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the #8 Kerrys Ring play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle · 08-15-2019, 11:32 PM

The Morning Lines less than 3-1 had a pretty decent day at the Spa, you actually made 8% per $2 wager across the board

I didn't think they would have a good day today

Code:

1	08-15-2019	1st race	2	Amazing Audrey (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	6/5#	W	3.9	2.6	2.1
2	08-15-2019	3rd race	2	Plainsman (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	C R McGaugheyIII2/1#	P		4.3	3.0
3	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
4	08-15-2019	3rd race	4	Tale of Silence (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	B Tagg		5/2#	S			2.8
5	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				
6	08-15-2019	7th race	9	Hollywood Cat (NY)	Alw	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#	W	6.9	4.6	3.9
7	08-15-2019	8th race	1	Holiday Disguise (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	P		3.3	2.9
8	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 M	C Clement	2/1#	W	5.5	3.4	3.0

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	8	3	2	1	37.5%	$16.3	$16	$0.3	1%				
		
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					75%	$52.2	$48	$4.2	8%	17.7

The Morning Line 9-5's for whatever reason have gone 0 for 12 or 0 for the entire meet at Saratoga

It has been the KOD or Kiss Of Death by the oddsmaker

Code:

1	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
2	07-19-2019	1st race	3	Legion Storm (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R Atras		9/5#	P		2.2	2.1
3	07-21-2019	13th race	5	Wow Cat (CHI)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.9	2.1
4	07-26-2019	3rd race	2	Missle Bomb (KY)	Alw	Dirt Muddy	5.5 FurlJ T Toscano Jr.	9/5#				
5	07-28-2019	5th race	4	Sport (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	H J Bond	9/5#				
6	08-01-2019	9th race	8	Rocketry (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MJ A Jerkens	9/5#	S			2.2
7	08-02-2019	2nd race	3	Cool as You Like (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	L Rice		9/5#	S			2.1
8	08-09-2019	2nd race	2	Bebeau (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	S			2.5
9	08-10-2019	1st race	2	Startup Nation (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	P		3.5	2.5
10	08-11-2019	8th race	2	Cookie Dough (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	K P McLaughlin	9/5#				
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
12	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
9-5	12	0	4	3	0%	$	$24	$-24	-100%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					58.3%	$27.1	$72	$-44.9	-63%	15.7

Let's see how long the streak can continue

SmoothJazz98 · 08-16-2019, 05:39 PM

Have you been keeping a n overall return? Just curious.

Apologies if I missed it.

TheOracle · 08-16-2019, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmoothJazz98

Have you been keeping a n overall return? Just curious.

Apologies if I missed it.

Hey Smooth

Yes, I do keep an overall return for some of the individual Morning Lines less than 3-1

TheOracle · 08-16-2019, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

.
.
.
The Morning Line 9-5's for whatever reason have gone 0 for 12 or 0 for the entire meet at Saratoga

It has been the KOD or Kiss Of Death by the oddsmaker

Code:

1	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
2	07-19-2019	1st race	3	Legion Storm (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R Atras		9/5#	P		2.2	2.1
3	07-21-2019	13th race	5	Wow Cat (CHI)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.9	2.1
4	07-26-2019	3rd race	2	Missle Bomb (KY)	Alw	Dirt Muddy	5.5 FurlJ T Toscano Jr.	9/5#				
5	07-28-2019	5th race	4	Sport (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	H J Bond	9/5#				
6	08-01-2019	9th race	8	Rocketry (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MJ A Jerkens	9/5#	S			2.2
7	08-02-2019	2nd race	3	Cool as You Like (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	L Rice		9/5#	S			2.1
8	08-09-2019	2nd race	2	Bebeau (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	S			2.5
9	08-10-2019	1st race	2	Startup Nation (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	P		3.5	2.5
10	08-11-2019	8th race	2	Cookie Dough (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	K P McLaughlin	9/5#				
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
12	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
9-5	12	0	4	3	0%	$	$24	$-24	-100%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					58.3%	$27.1	$72	$-44.9	-63%	15.7

Let's see how long the streak can continue

The Morning Line 9-5's finally got a win for the first time since the season started at Saratoga

Code:

1	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
2	07-19-2019	1st race	3	Legion Storm (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R Atras		9/5#	P		2.2	2.1
3	07-21-2019	13th race	5	Wow Cat (CHI)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.9	2.1
4	07-26-2019	3rd race	2	Missle Bomb (KY)	Alw	Dirt Muddy	5.5 FurlJ T Toscano Jr.	9/5#				
5	07-28-2019	5th race	4	Sport (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	H J Bond	9/5#				
6	08-01-2019	9th race	8	Rocketry (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MJ A Jerkens	9/5#	S			2.2
7	08-02-2019	2nd race	3	Cool as You Like (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	L Rice		9/5#	S			2.1
8	08-09-2019	2nd race	2	Bebeau (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	S			2.5
9	08-10-2019	1st race	2	Startup Nation (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	P		3.5	2.5
10	08-11-2019	8th race	2	Cookie Dough (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	K P McLaughlin	9/5#				
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
12	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#		
13	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
9-5	13	1	4	3	7.6%	$4.5	$26	$-21.5	-83%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					61.5%	$37.8	$78	$-40.2	-52%	18.6

#1 Value Engineering came through for Brown with a win as the Morning Line 9-5 paying $10.70 across the board which is not too shabby for a 9-5 Favorite!!!

The oddsmaker's Kiss Of Death (KOD) was finally broken today

Let's continue to keep an eye on the Morning Line 9-5's at the Spa!!!

TheOracle · 08-16-2019, 11:51 PM

The Morning Lines less than 3-1 had a very good day at the Spa going 4 for 8, you made 20% per $2 win wager

I was sure they would not have a good day today but they did

Code:

1	08-16-2019	2nd race	5	Walkoff (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
2	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9
3	08-16-2019	5th race	2	Life in Shambles (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#				
4	08-16-2019	6th race	8	Psalmody (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MJ Sharp		7/5#	P		3.5	2.7
5	08-16-2019	7th race	1	Up the Ante (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC Clement	5/2#	W	4.7	3.2	2.3
6	08-16-2019	8th race	5	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	W	3.0	2.3	2.1
7	08-16-2019	9th race	3	Another Miracle (KY)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlG C Contessa	7/5#	W	7.1	4.0	2.9
8	08-16-2019	9th race	6	Montauk Daddy (FL)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlL Rice		2/1#	S			2.3

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	8	4	1	1	50%	$19.3	$16	$3.3	20%		
				
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					75%	$50.8	$48	$2.8	5%	15.2

Let's also keep a sharp eye on the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf!!!

TheOracle · 08-17-2019, 12:48 AM

For week 6 Morning Lines less than 3-1 are winning at 48% going 12 for their last 25

Code:

1	08-14-2019	1st race	7	Snap Decision (KY)	Alw	Turf Firm	2 1/16 MJ O Fisher	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.9
2	08-14-2019	2nd race	5	Beyond Gone (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	K G McPeek	1/1#	W	3.3	2.4	2.1
3	08-14-2019	3rd race	4	Aristocratic (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	S			2.8
4	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY)		Alw	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	W	4.9	3.4	2.6
5	08-14-2019	5th race	4	My Bronx Tail (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	7 Furl	M Nevin		5/2#	W	6.7	3.2	2.4
6	08-14-2019	6th race	3	Astoria Kitten (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	5/2#				
7	08-14-2019	7th race	5	Kimari (KY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlW A Ward	3/5#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
8	08-14-2019	8th race	7	Allured (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	3/5#				
9	08-14-2019	9th race	7	Harv Wont Tap (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MB R Brown	5/2#				
10	08-15-2019	1st race	2	Amazing Audrey (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	6/5#	W	3.9	2.6	2.1
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	2	Plainsman (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	C R McGaugheyIII2/1#	P		4.3	3.0
12	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
13	08-15-2019	3rd race	4	Tale of Silence (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	B Tagg		5/2#	S			2.8
14	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				
15	08-15-2019	7th race	9	Hollywood Cat (NY)	Alw	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#	W	6.9	4.6	3.9
16	08-15-2019	8th race	1	Holiday Disguise (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	P		3.3	2.9
17	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 M	C Clement	2/1#	W	5.5	3.4	3.0
18	08-16-2019	2nd race	5	Walkoff (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
19	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9
20	08-16-2019	5th race	2	Life in Shambles (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#				
21	08-16-2019	6th race	8	Psalmody (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MJ Sharp		7/5#	P		3.5	2.7
22	08-16-2019	7th race	1	Up the Ante (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC Clement	5/2#	W	4.7	3.2	2.3
23	08-16-2019	8th race	5	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	W	3.0	2.3	2.1
24	08-16-2019	9th race	3	Another Miracle (KY)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlG C Contessa	7/5#	W	7.1	4.0	2.9
25	08-16-2019	9th race	6	Montauk Daddy (FL)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlL Rice		2/1#	S			2.3

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	25	12	3	3	48%	$57.8	$50	$7.8	15%		
				
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					72%	$154.4	$150	$4.4	2%	47.8

So far for week 6, you are getting a 15% return per $2 win wager on Morning Lines less than 3-1

Interesting to note, 9 of the 12 wins came on the Turf

I doubt if returns will remain positive for the MLFs for the rest of the weekend

However, let's keep a sharp eye for Morning Lines at 2-1 on the Turf and 9-5 Morning Lines on the Dirt!!!

TheOracle · 08-17-2019, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

The Morning Line 9-5's finally got a win for the first time since the season started at Saratoga

Code:

1	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
2	07-19-2019	1st race	3	Legion Storm (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R Atras		9/5#	P		2.2	2.1
3	07-21-2019	13th race	5	Wow Cat (CHI)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.9	2.1
4	07-26-2019	3rd race	2	Missle Bomb (KY)	Alw	Dirt Muddy	5.5 FurlJ T Toscano Jr.	9/5#				
5	07-28-2019	5th race	4	Sport (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	H J Bond	9/5#				
6	08-01-2019	9th race	8	Rocketry (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MJ A Jerkens	9/5#	S			2.2
7	08-02-2019	2nd race	3	Cool as You Like (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	L Rice		9/5#	S			2.1
8	08-09-2019	2nd race	2	Bebeau (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	S			2.5
9	08-10-2019	1st race	2	Startup Nation (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	P		3.5	2.5
10	08-11-2019	8th race	2	Cookie Dough (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	K P McLaughlin	9/5#				
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
12	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#		
13	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
9-5	13	1	4	3	7.6%	$4.5	$26	$-21.5	-83%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					61.5%	$37.8	$78	$-40.2	-52%	18.6

#1 Value Engineering came through for Brown with a win as the Morning Line 9-5 paying $10.70 across the board which is not too shabby for a 9-5 Favorite!!!

The oddsmaker's Kiss Of Death (KOD) was finally broken today

Let's continue to keep an eye on the Morning Line 9-5's at the Spa!!!

The oddsmaker's KOD still remains for Morning Line 9-5's on the Dirt

Code:

1	07-19-2019	1st race	3	Legion Storm (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R Atras		9/5#	P		2.2	2.1
2	07-21-2019	13th race	5	Wow Cat (CHI)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.9	2.1
3	07-26-2019	3rd race	2	Missle Bomb (KY)	Alw	Dirt Muddy	5.5 FurlJ T Toscano Jr.	9/5#				
4	08-01-2019	9th race	8	Rocketry (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MJ A Jerkens	9/5#	S			2.2
5	08-02-2019	2nd race	3	Cool as You Like (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	L Rice		9/5#	S			2.1
6	08-09-2019	2nd race	2	Bebeau (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#	S			2.5
7	08-11-2019	8th race	2	Cookie Dough (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	K P McLaughlin	9/5#				
8	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#		
		
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
9-5	8	0	2	3	0%	$	$16	$-16	-100%		
				
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					62.5%	$16.1	$48	$-31.9	-67%	11

Let's keep a sharp eye out for ML 9-5's on the Dirt!!!

TheOracle · 08-17-2019, 11:22 AM

The Morning Line 8-5’s have been having their way at Saratoga this season on the Dirt

Code:

1	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	8/5#				
2	07-12-2019	6th race	1	Felix in Fabula (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MB N Levine	8/5#	W	6.5	6.8	4.0
3	07-12-2019	6th race	1A	Curlin Road (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MR R Rodriguez	8/5#	P		6.8	4.0
4	07-13-2019	3rd race	3	Cucina (FL)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M E Casse	8/5#				
5	07-13-2019	4th race	6	Zyramid (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlS M Asmussen	8/5#	W	4.9	3.5	2.7
6	07-17-2019	2nd race	2	Listentoyourheart (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Sloppy	6 Furl	C Clement	8/5#	P		3.9	2.9
7	07-18-2019	6th race	4	Smooth With a Kick (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	8/5#	W	3.4	2.6	2.3
8	07-19-2019	2nd race	6	Carrizo (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	D Gargan	8/5#	W	4.9	3.3	3.0
9	07-19-2019	8th race	2	Engage (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	6 Furl	C C Brown	8/5#				
10	07-25-2019	3rd race	6	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	P		2.6	2.2
11	07-27-2019	4th race	1	Shoplifted (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlS M Asmussen	8/5#	W	3.4	2.4	2.1
12	07-27-2019	4th race	1A	Soviet (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlT A Pletcher	8/5#				
13	07-28-2019	2nd race	2	Air On Fire (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	J Servis	8/5#	P		3.1	2.3
14	07-28-2019	4th race	5	Runningwscissors (NY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T M Amoss	8/5#				
15	08-01-2019	9th race	1	Marconi (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MT A Pletcher	8/5#	P		3.6	2.4
16	08-02-2019	1st race	8	Justice of War (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	S M Asmussen	8/5#	S			2.4
17	08-04-2019	2nd race	2	Data Driven (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlD Gargan	8/5#	W	4.1	2.8	2.5
18	08-07-2019	2nd race	1	Bears Mafia (NY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	B N Levine	8/5#	W	4.7	3.1	2.7
19	08-08-2019	1st race	1	Cuddle Kitten (KY)	Str Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	J Navarro	8/5#	W	3.3	2.5	2.1
20	08-08-2019	2nd race	2	My Roxy Girl (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D Gargan	8/5#	W	5.0	3.3	2.7
21	08-11-2019	8th race	3	Talk Veuve to Me (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	R Brisset	8/5#	W	4.8	3.1	2.6
22	08-16-2019	8th race	5	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	W	3.0	2.3	2.1

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
8-5	22	11	5	1	50%	$48	$44	$4	9%						

					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					77.2%	$148.7	$132	$16.7	12%	45

They have won 6 in a row since August 4th and they are 11 for their last 22 since opening day at the Spa on the Dirt

Interesting to see very little Brown, Pletcher or Rodriguez from the group of winners

I suspect the streak will be broken today

Code:

pick08-17-201921	08-17-2019	2nd race	1	Miss Imperial (KY)	Claiming	Six And One Half Furlongs	J Servis	8/5#	Dirt
pick08-17-201922	08-17-2019	10th race	1	Dunbar Road (KY)	Stakes		One And One Fourth Miles	C C Brown	8/5#	Dirt

Let's see if we can get one of these to hit the winner's circle today at the Spa!!!

Secondbest · 08-17-2019, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

For week 6 Morning Lines less than 3-1 are winning at 48% going 12 for their last 25

Code:

1	08-14-2019	1st race	7	Snap Decision (KY)	Alw	Turf Firm	2 1/16 MJ O Fisher	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.9
2	08-14-2019	2nd race	5	Beyond Gone (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	K G McPeek	1/1#	W	3.3	2.4	2.1
3	08-14-2019	3rd race	4	Aristocratic (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	S			2.8
4	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY)		Alw	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	W	4.9	3.4	2.6
5	08-14-2019	5th race	4	My Bronx Tail (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	7 Furl	M Nevin		5/2#	W	6.7	3.2	2.4
6	08-14-2019	6th race	3	Astoria Kitten (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	5/2#				
7	08-14-2019	7th race	5	Kimari (KY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlW A Ward	3/5#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
8	08-14-2019	8th race	7	Allured (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	3/5#				
9	08-14-2019	9th race	7	Harv Wont Tap (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MB R Brown	5/2#				
10	08-15-2019	1st race	2	Amazing Audrey (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	6/5#	W	3.9	2.6	2.1
11	08-15-2019	3rd race	2	Plainsman (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	C R McGaugheyIII2/1#	P		4.3	3.0
12	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
13	08-15-2019	3rd race	4	Tale of Silence (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	B Tagg		5/2#	S			2.8
14	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				
15	08-15-2019	7th race	9	Hollywood Cat (NY)	Alw	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#	W	6.9	4.6	3.9
16	08-15-2019	8th race	1	Holiday Disguise (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	P		3.3	2.9
17	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 M	C Clement	2/1#	W	5.5	3.4	3.0
18	08-16-2019	2nd race	5	Walkoff (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
19	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9
20	08-16-2019	5th race	2	Life in Shambles (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#				
21	08-16-2019	6th race	8	Psalmody (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MJ Sharp		7/5#	P		3.5	2.7
22	08-16-2019	7th race	1	Up the Ante (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC Clement	5/2#	W	4.7	3.2	2.3
23	08-16-2019	8th race	5	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	W	3.0	2.3	2.1
24	08-16-2019	9th race	3	Another Miracle (KY)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlG C Contessa	7/5#	W	7.1	4.0	2.9
25	08-16-2019	9th race	6	Montauk Daddy (FL)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlL Rice		2/1#	S			2.3

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	25	12	3	3	48%	$57.8	$50	$7.8	15%		
				
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					72%	$154.4	$150	$4.4	2%	47.8

So far for week 6, you are getting a 15% return per $2 win wager on Morning Lines less than 3-1

Interesting to note, 9 of the 12 wins came on the Turf

I doubt if returns will remain positive for the MLFs for the rest of the weekend

However, let's keep a sharp eye for Morning Lines at 2-1 on the Turf and 9-5 Morning Lines on the Dirt!!!

I may have missed it but do you keep a separate results for turf and dirt for the meet?

TheOracle · 08-17-2019, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secondbest

I may have missed it but do you keep a separate results for turf and dirt for the meet?

Hey Secondbest

Yes, I keep separate results for Turf and Dirt as well

So far for this week at the Spa MLFs less than 3-1 have been actually doing well on the Turf they have won 9 out of 14

Code:

1	08-14-2019	1st race	7	Snap Decision (KY)	Alw	Turf Firm	2 1/16 MJ O Fisher	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.9
2	08-14-2019	4th race	7	Gosilently (NY)		Alw	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	R N Falcone Jr.	2/1#	W	4.9	3.4	2.6
3	08-14-2019	6th race	3	Astoria Kitten (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	5/2#				
4	08-14-2019	7th race	5	Kimari (KY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlW A Ward	3/5#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
5	08-14-2019	9th race	7	Harv Wont Tap (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MB R Brown	5/2#				
6	08-15-2019	1st race	2	Amazing Audrey (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MD Gargan	6/5#	W	3.9	2.6	2.1
7	08-15-2019	6th race	11	Dull Knife (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	9/5#				
8	08-15-2019	7th race	9	Hollywood Cat (NY)	Alw	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#	W	6.9	4.6	3.9
9	08-15-2019	9th race	8	Kerrys Ring (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 M	C Clement	2/1#	W	5.5	3.4	3.0
10	08-16-2019	3rd race	1	Value Engineering (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 3/16 MC C Brown	9/5#	W	4.5	3.3	2.9
11	08-16-2019	6th race	8	Psalmody (KY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/16 MJ Sharp		7/5#	P		3.5	2.7
12	08-16-2019	7th race	1	Up the Ante (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC Clement	5/2#	W	4.7	3.2	2.3
13	08-16-2019	9th race	3	Another Miracle (KY)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlG C Contessa	7/5#	W	7.1	4.0	2.9
14	08-16-2019	9th race	6	Montauk Daddy (FL)	Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlL Rice		2/1#	S			2.3

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	14	9	1	1	64.2%	$44.8	$28	$16.8	60%
						
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					78.5%	$107.8	$84	$23.8	28%	29.7

I'm not sure if that will last through the weekend though

MLFs less than 3-1 have not done well this week on the Dirt

Code:

1	08-14-2019	2nd race	5	Beyond Gone (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	K G McPeek	1/1#	W	3.3	2.4	2.1
2	08-14-2019	3rd race	4	Aristocratic (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	S			2.8
3	08-14-2019	5th race	4	My Bronx Tail (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	7 Furl	M Nevin	5/2#	W	6.7	3.2	2.4
4	08-14-2019	8th race	7	Allured (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	3/5#				
5	08-15-2019	3rd race	2	Plainsman (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	C R McGaugheyIII2/1#	P		4.3	3.0
6	08-15-2019	3rd race	3	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	A Delacour	9/5#				
7	08-15-2019	3rd race	4	Tale of Silence (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	B Tagg		5/2#	S			2.8
8	08-15-2019	8th race	1	Holiday Disguise (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	P		3.3	2.9
9	08-16-2019	2nd race	5	Walkoff (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
10	08-16-2019	5th race	2	Life in Shambles (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#				
11	08-16-2019	8th race	5	Ratajkowski (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	B A Lynch	8/5#	W	3.0	2.3	2.1

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	11	3	2	2	27.2%	$13	$22	$-9	-41%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					63.6%	$46.6	$66	$-19.4	-30%	18.1

Only 3 for their last 11 I don't suspect that will get any better over the weekend at the Spa

Secondbest · 08-17-2019, 02:21 PM

Thanks