Sierra Leone

[bisket]

Yesterday I watched the profiles on the horses from DRF and Dan Illman commented on something I didn't realize about Sierra Leone. Unlike most closers Leone doesn't fall as far back as most late runners. Which is why I commented in my earlier post about him that he only had to make up 6 lengths on the field in the last 3 furlongs of the Bluegrass. So I think a marginally fast pace doesn't effect him as badly as other closers because he's a little closer to the pace.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The Remsen was on a heavily inside speed biased track. Dornoch was the inside most speed horse. He put away the disadvantaged outside chasers in a fast pace. IMO, that makes it one of those fuzzy trips where Dornoch was used hard early but on the best part of the track and Sierra Leone got a good pace setup but was against the track a bit being outside. I don't bet chalk very often, but I played Sierra Leone back off that race and again in the Bluegrass.

The Bluegrass was one of the more interesting preps in that the race was loaded with speed, projected to be a fast pace, the fractions were very fast, but the race didn't fall apart that much. So either the horses up front early (Just A Touch, Epic Ride, Dornoch and Top Conor) ran quite a bit better than it looks for new tops or those fast fractions didn't have as much of an impact on the race as you would expect.

I guess that depends upon which numbers you're looking at which indicate new tops showing up for multiple horses in there. I have Just a Touch with three 9's in a row and the winner with an 8, not quite getting back to the Remsen 7 (yet). I just shake my head when I hear some of the numbers these other figure services have on these horses sometimes.

[bisket]

The Remsen and Risen Star were slow races. The Bluegrass a little faster. I'm luke warm on Leone. I liked Just a Touch before the Bluegrass. He gets a line through him now. I just don't think Leone has really beat anything in his races.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

and the loading issues with 120000 people roaring and the greenness he showed switching his lead late and the lug is what makes me skeptical. I love Chad Brown and I have always loved dead closers, I am just not sure with the amount of traffic and the amount of horses "could cause him trouble" I still think I will use him but just not sold on T. Gaffalione... I have seen this kid with some bad rides in races. I am really surprised that I. Ortiz.... did not get this mount... but this is a Madaket horse and Domestic Spending is a Klaravich..

I heard Chad say in his interview that today's post position draw is the first thing they are worried about. I will start today with going over trip handicapping and video...on head ons. I am sure people on here have already checked the types of trips he has had. If Rich Strike can close from dead last... and you had Epicentre and Zandon.. than there is no reason why he can't but there are better EP and horses with speed in this derby... Fierceness. Catching Freedom, Encino, Just a Touch...

So... that Break.. the horses that get squeezed... and the drama begins.....

You think, between now and next Saturday, you might finally realize that the horse did not change back lefty in the Bluegrass?

[wiretowire68]

Well he jumped left or something took his attention away ....showed he is still learning and its a fear when they run.. he did jump toward the rail... I will look again.. still though this horse might have been his peak race.. we shall see. Post and break.. and ya he may not have to be far back.. but I still think it is a lot to ask a 3 year old to close 4 straight races hard... it is just opinion.. I would love to see Chad win the derby... or a Kenny McPeek...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I guess that depends upon which numbers you're looking at which indicate new tops showing up for multiple horses in there. I have Just a Touch with three 9's in a row and the winner with an 8, not quite getting back to the Remsen 7 (yet). I just shake my head when I hear some of the numbers these other figure services have on these horses sometimes.

Fractions vs flow is very similar to class vs. speed figures.

There are multiple paths to truth and enlightenment and they don’t always agree even within the same religion.

One of the tricks to this game is figuring out who’s got it right for a specific race. For me, the Bluegrass is a tricky one.

[classhandicapper]

Top Conor is running back Derby day in the Pat Day Mile. His performance there could help clarify the Blue Grass a bit for anyone that's not sure about how the pace impacted the race in the Blue Grass.

[bisket]

Although it could just be they didn't get the points to run in the derby. The fact they decided to go a mile next out could also reinforce it doesn't mean much Just a Touch and Epic Ride hung around for place and show.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Fractions vs flow is very similar to class vs. speed figures.

There are multiple paths to truth and enlightenment and they don’t always agree even within the same religion.

One of the tricks to this game is figuring out who’s got it right for a specific race. For me, the Bluegrass is a tricky one.

Let's say we have a controlled experiment where a robot fires eight different rifles 1500 times and one is slightly more accurate at a distance than the rest, then we make another pass (pass #1501) so they all fire one more time, this time the least accurate one hits the target when the most accurate one missed. At this point we end the experiment and when I ask you to choose which of the 8 to hunt with because your life will depend upon its accuracy to survive, why is what happened on the final pass relevant to your decision? To me it's just another race in the test set. This seems to me almost like a dog chasing its tail but maybe it has entertainment value. Unless someone is changing the way they make numbers I don't see the value in trying to chase down who got it 'right' in a specific race as some sort of ongoing test. Let's not forget someone can in fact with the least accurate numbers accidentally get it right, there's that too.

[burnsy]

I believe it’s been over 30 years since a Bluegrass winner had won the derby . Like 1991 I believe . When it comes to the Wood and the Blue Grass one has to be a little skeptical. Not saying it will never happen . It will. But at second choice it’s a little dicey IMO. If the 3-1 holds up ….you pretty much better have some back up . Just saying .

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Let's say we have a controlled experiment where a robot fires eight different rifles 1500 times and one is slightly more accurate at a distance than the rest, then we make another pass (pass #1501) so they all fire one more time, this time the least accurate one hits the target when the most accurate one missed. At this point we end the experiment and when I ask you to choose which of the 8 to hunt with because your life will depend upon its accuracy to survive, why is what happened on the final pass relevant to your decision? To me it's just another race in the test set. This seems to me almost like a dog chasing its tail but maybe it has entertainment value. Unless someone is changing the way they make numbers I don't see the value in trying to chase down who got it 'right' in a specific race as some sort of ongoing test. Let's not forget someone can in fact with the least accurate numbers accidentally get it right, there's that too.

The day I had a 30-1 winner at the derby, it was the only winner I had that day, but if you gave me the choice, I'd rather be wrong about the derby and have 6 other winners. We talk about the derby because it's not just a race, but a spectacle. Getting bragging rights about picking a derby winner is fun, but handicapping is more enjoyable when one has a sense that they are in tune with how to predict winners.

[wiretowire68]

It just the best day for racing period, BC close but it reminds me of being that kid when my dad would take me to the track Sat. or Sunday in the late 70s early 80's and the stands were filled with people and kids were allowed to run around and world either was simpler or just seemed that people cared and were care free and there was not this....world of big brother watching you constantly where information was fun and horse racing meant something.

So for me.. the comment about the day itself, even if its not being there, the track your at has a different feel or that excitement of a large crowd enjoying themselves and the that feeling of cheering and rooting when the race starts and then that turn for home and you feel that horse has a chance..

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Let's say we have a controlled experiment where a robot fires eight different rifles 1500 times and one is slightly more accurate at a distance than the rest, then we make another pass (pass #1501) so they all fire one more time, this time the least accurate one hits the target when the most accurate one missed. At this point we end the experiment and when I ask you to choose which of the 8 to hunt with because your life will depend upon its accuracy to survive, why is what happened on the final pass relevant to your decision? To me it's just another race in the test set. This seems to me almost like a dog chasing its tail but maybe it has entertainment value. Unless someone is changing the way they make numbers I don't see the value in trying to chase down who got it 'right' in a specific race as some sort of ongoing test. Let's not forget someone can in fact with the least accurate numbers accidentally get it right, there's that too.

I think there is ONE correct answer to every race but neither time based methods or flow/class based methods get it right all of the time for a variety of reasons. That's a major reason why there are so many different opinions about the same race among good handicappers.

The question you are asking is whether we can figure out the correct answer about a single race often enough to be of value when two methods disagree.

I know I can't all the time. However, the very fact that there is a question in my mind about what really happened is enough to adjust my thinking relative to someone that isn't even considering the possibility that his method might be wrong in this specific case. I think that helps.

These things tend to get clarified after the fact as horses run back.

[boys at tosconova]

a closer from the rail that will be 15/20th for 2 calls. not to mention short odds to boot. sure he's talented but there's reasons to not love or go gung ho over.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think there is ONE correct answer to every race but neither time based methods or flow/class based methods get it right all of the time for a variety of reasons. That's a major reason why there are so many different opinions about the same race among good handicappers.

The question you are asking is whether we can figure out the correct answer about a single race often enough to be of value when two methods disagree.

I know I can't all the time. However, the very fact that there is a question in my mind about what really happened is enough to adjust my thinking relative to someone that isn't even considering the possibility that his method might be wrong in this specific case. I think that helps.

These things tend to get clarified after the fact as horses run back.

Maybe they 'get clarified after the face' when it comes to figure or class handicapping. Figures are probably the least precise method of analysis - how fast is a track on any given day? Well, let's see how fast the horses in a race have run previously and base any new opinions on prior inexact opinions.

The setup of a race is what it is. It doesn't change after horses in a given race have run back. A good or excellent run is just that. Of course, you need to qualify the 'snapshot' for trouble and ground loss.