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Old 02-10-2019, 02:14 AM   #496
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:27 AM   #497
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Originally Posted by Ramblin View Post
Got a question regarding bankrolling Nitro. I wonder how you spread it out.
As an example....say you are using $1000 for a ten race card. Do you play $100 a race or would you instead play the $1000 on the first race with the playable objective of the +50% profit margin? Or do you begin with a given set amount on that first playable race and adjust incrementally as the bankroll fluctuates up or down thru the card?

Thanks and keep rolling!


On the races that offer value (and playable based on my criteria) I tend to bet the same general amount on any race I deem playable. I might only play 5 or 6 races if things look good but I often play only 2 or 3 races using my Dutching scheme.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:29 AM   #498
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R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T..8-2-9 W/ 12-3-1 ...2:15 AM EST
11-3-2-4 Dutch Loss 36% Profit Margin-Passed / No betting action on the LS Winner #11
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:56 AM   #499
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R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T...9-7-4 W/ 12-8-1 - Fav #4 w/solid betting action an obvious sub for #12 ...2:45 AM EST
4-14-1-7 Dutch Win 68% Profit Margin / No clues on the LS Placer #14
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Old 02-10-2019, 03:27 AM   #500
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R#7- 1200M C2 (6F)T...4-2-7 W/ 8-9-6 .....3:15 AM EST
8-9-7-4 Dutch Loss 16% Profit Margin- Passed- Winner #8 took all the very late heavy action/ $88.70 Quinella & $868.20 Triple box (Quartet - $3861.00) / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-10-2019, 04:00 AM   #501
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R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T..9-2-11 W/ 3-1-7 ..3:45 AM EST
1-2-7-3 Dutch Loss 16% Profit Margin- Passed / $127.10 Quinella & $2808.60 Triple Box (Quartet - $9224.00) / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-10-2019, 04:31 AM   #502
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R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D...8-9-3 W/ 1-5-7 .....4:20 AM EST
8-10-12-11 Dutch Win 27% Profit Margin-Passed / Placer #10 took late heavy action
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Old 02-10-2019, 05:06 AM   #503
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R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....8-7-1 W/4-6-10 ....4:55 AM EST
8-13-14-7 Dutch Win 34% Profit Margin-Passed / #13 & #14 both took the late action

It turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 65%, and came from hitting only 2 of 2 playable races. There were also some very nice big Vertical hits along the way.

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Old 02-12-2019, 09:14 PM   #504
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Cool HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 2/13/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 9 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-1, (2)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 5:45 AM WED EST

Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if youre playing!

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T...1-2-9 W/ 7-4-12 ...5:45 AM

R#2- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T7-3 6 W/ 4-5-1 ..6:15 AM

R#3 1200M C4 (6F)T..10-2-11 W/ 7-4-5 ....6:45 AM

R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T.7-3-6 W/ 4-1-5 ..7:15 AM

R#5- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.3-7-5 W/ 10-2-11 ...7:45 AM

R#6- 1200M C1 (6F)T...3-1-2 W/ 4-8-7 ..8:15 AM

R#7 1650M C1 (8.25F)T.3-7-4 W/ 6-1-9 ......8:45 AM

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....4-5-3 W/ 1-6-9 ..9:15 AM

R#9 1200M C4 (6F)T.3-5-10 W/ 2-11-12 ....9:50 AM
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Old 02-12-2019, 09:56 PM   #505
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. February 13, 2019 45th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 66 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 5.45am ET, 2.45 am PT. Rail: Course B, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190213_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Lucky Storm (4-1) Tired in the stretch after being rank early in the race and came back on the Vets list with a case of inappetence (refusing to eat) which is nothing new with him, he has been on the Vets last in his last 2 races. He is a need to lead type in a race with lots of speed.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 324 (Winners: 4th & 8th, Second: 12th)
Race 1 All Great Friends (8-1)
Race 3 Jimson The Dragon (15-1)

Race 333 (Winners: 2nd, 3rd & 6th)
Race 3 Junzi (15-1)

Race 263 (Winners: 8th & 12th, Second: 2nd)
Race 5 Cheerful Boy (23-1)

Race 329 (Winners: 1st & 12th, Second: 7th)
Race 9 Starlight (15-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Flying Monkey (24-1)
Race 9 Victory Machine (33-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (3-2)
Race 5 Happy Dragon (7-5)
Race 7 Rise High (9-5)
Race 9 Music Addition (3-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 6 Born In China (10-1)
Race 6 Super Hoppy (6-1)
Race 7 Super Chic (15-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Horse Of Fortune (24-1)
Race 9 Tornado Twist (3-2)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (3-2) Went off as the even money favourite with the pick up of Moreira in the irons for the first time for John Moore after 2 close defeats as the chalk in both of those outs. He broke a step slow but in reality it helped his cause allowing him to settle over to the rail heading into the first turn, became a little rank heading into the backside when the pace setter put on the brakes slowing the pace down. Moreira cut the corner when they entered the stretch trying to scoot him under the leaders who had drifted out slightly, but at the 250 mark Polymer Luck with de Sousa drifted back towards the rail forcing Moreira to take up on him slightly, afterwards Moreira had to wait for clearance all the while the eventual winner Charity Grand was making his winning move. He should improve off this effort if Moreira is allowed to ride him back next time out.

Race 5 Happy Dragon (7-5) He was coming off of a very impressive 3 length win in his last, but drew the 12 post in this mile race at the Valley. Was immediately taken to the rear by de Sousa with the interest in trying save as much ground in the first turn as possible, but became rank while going under the wire for the first time and then again mid-way down the backside. Raced three and four wide in the turn for home and was trying to make up some ground but was forced to shift outwards when he was blocked at the 150 metre mark, only finished 2 lengths behind the winner Warm The Voice who was allowed to race on the rail in all three turns.

Race 6 Super Hoppy (6-1) Was beaten a length and a quarter by Country Star on the 9th of January and 21 days later unfortunately drew Country Star again. He broke well and settled into his usual running pattern in the rear of the field, while a 93-1 longshot was setting the early pace with eventual winner Country Star sitting in a perfect stalking position. Heading into the turn three wide Purton had to slightly take up on him losing around a half-length to the field, in the stretch his run started his run as soon as he straightened out and continued all the way to the wire, galloping out past the field with ease.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 6 Super Hoppy (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 8 Sacred Ibis (10-1)
Race 9 California Archer (16-1)
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:36 PM   #506
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Thumbs up Happy Valley WED 2/13/19 - RESULTS

Quote:
R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T…….1-2-9 W/ 7-4-12 …...5:45 AM
1-2-10-7– Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin / $13.80 Quinella

Quote:
R#2- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…7-3 6 W/ 4-5-1 …..…6:15 AM
7-4-12-10– Dutch Win 69% Profit Margin / $28.30 Quinella

Quote:
R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…….10-2-11 W/ 7-4-5 ....6:45 AM
11-10-7-1– Dutch Win 75% Profit Margin/ $21.40 Quinella & $250.40 Triple / ALL of that one! (Quartet - $1763.20)

Quote:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….7-3-6 W/ 4-1-5 ……..7:15 AM
7-5-4-10– Dutch Win 50% Profit Margin/ $30.10 Quinella & $278.80 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#5- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.…3-7-5 W/ 10-2-11 ...7:45 AM
3-5-2-12– Dutch Win 69% Profit Margin/ $48.00 Quinella & $428.20 Triple / ALL of that one!

**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race. Hit 5 of 5 possible plays & finishing today’s card with a healthy 63% O.A. Profit Margin!

Quote:
R#6- 1200M C1 (6F)T……...3-1-2 W/ 4-8-7 ……..8:15 AM
2-4-3-5– Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin-Passed/ $56.60 Quinella & $267.20 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#7– 1650M C1 (8.25F)T….3-7-4 W/ 6-1-9 ......8:45 AM
9-7-1-5– Dutch Loss 56% Profit Margin-Passed/ $41.80 Quinella & $529.80 Triple Box / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....4-5-3 W/ 1-6-9 …..…9:15 AM
1/9-12-3– Dutch Loss 22% Profit Margin-Passed / $674.40 Quinella – A DH for the Win & #9 @ 189/1!!

Quote:
R#9– 1200M C4 (6F)T…….3-5-10 W/ 2-11-12 ....9:50 AM
3-7-10-5– Dutch Win 18% Profit Margin-Passed /


It was another very profitable card.
My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 63% and was hit from the first 5 of 5 playable races.
Also hit 5 of 9 Top choice picks , 8 out of the 9 Quinellas and 5 out of the 9 Triples. An exciting day!

Last edited by Nitro; 02-13-2019 at 12:39 PM.
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Old 02-16-2019, 05:13 PM   #507
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. February 17, 2019 47th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 71 Degrees Cloudy 50% of rain Wind: E 15 to 25mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course A+3, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190217_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Winner Supreme (5-2) Broke a lot better than he did in his debut and won on the lead from pillar to post, but was all out at the wire while holding off the chalk that refused to change leads.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 333 (Winners: 2nd, 3rd & 6th)
Race 2 Lets Come Back (15-1)

Race 277 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 12th)
Race 3 Green Card (7-2)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 King Opie (7-1)
Race 7 Southern Legend (27-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Clement Legend (5-2)
Race 5 Good Standing (5-1)
Race 10 Picken (8-5)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 5 King Opie (7-1)
Race 9 Ho Ho Khan (6-1)


Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Waikuku (2-5) In his first try at Class 2 after an easy winner in Class 3 was bet down as the heavy favourite with some very nice runners in here. Broke well but bounced around slightly around 50 metres from the gate, settled 2 wide mid-pack, drifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch for running room and quickly pounced on his main competition Taking Aim (who was given a very poor ride by Zac Purton, he rode him too confidently and had no response for Waikuku when he asked him for his run) and ran away from the field with much ease.

Race 9 Dark Dream (even) Was taking a nice jump up in class after disposing of a nice Class 2 field with ease, unfortunately drew the 12 post being sent off as the 9-5 favourite. Was bumped out of the gate but was of no consequence, de Sousa spent the first 500 metres trying to find a place to settle in but continued to lose ground to the front runners while doing so. By the time they reached the turn he was still stuck out three wide, de Sousa drifted him out to the six path entering the stretch looking for running room, then at the 300 metre mark Bowman on the eventual winner Furlore drifted out and created a chain reaction the ended with Dark Dream taking the worse of it knocking him off stride. He recovered like a pro and just missed second by a long neck.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 4 Hard Promise (3-1)
Race 9 Dark Dream (even)

Longshots:
Race 2 Shining Ace (23-1)
Race 2 Wonder Express (14-1)
Race 3 High Rev (10-1)
Race 9 Harmony Victory (17-1)
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Old 02-16-2019, 07:18 PM   #508
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Thumbs up Happy Valley WED 2/13/19 - RESULTS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T.1-2-9 W/ 7-4-12 ...5:45 AM

1-2-10-7 Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin / $13.80 Quinella
Nitro, it always confounded me how you can determine the "dutch win % profit margin" prior to the race.

I would think you would have to establish your own odds line, then compare that to the EXPECTED final odds.

the ACTUAL "dutch win % profit margin" would be based on the FINAL odds.

an example for the above race would be helpful

Thanks.
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Old 02-16-2019, 09:10 PM   #509
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Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Nitro, it always confounded me how you can determine the "dutch win % profit margin" prior to the race.

I would think you would have to establish your own odds line, then compare that to the EXPECTED final odds.

the ACTUAL "dutch win % profit margin" would be based on the FINAL odds.

an example for the above race would be helpful

Thanks.
You know Formula Ive explained this very simple and successful Dutching process to you and others many times over! You doubted my results before, because I was using the HK$ odds in my calculations. You and the other skeptics never got it because although the profit margins varied when converting to US$, the bottom line was always the hit frequency. If youre not hitting at a reasonable frequency you can throw the profit margins out the window. So here we go again with you questioning profit margins!

First of all you might have noticed that my selections are posted hours (not minutes) before post time.

Why would I establish my own odds? That seems kind of silly when theyre posted early and during the live betting cycles. Besides I only use odds for betting purposes. The selections made are based totally on a tote analysis thats both static and dynamic (during the betting cycle)

In fact, by 4 or 5 minutes to post time (and all during any typical HK betting cylcle) Im inputting the changing odds directly from the tote board. BTW, after monitoring the HK tote board over the last 5 years I have an excellent means of anticipating the final odds. Sometimes Im a little off one way or the other, and my actual Profit Margins returned more often than not are actually higher than what I post as the Actual return.
Thats because I dont (and wont) bet at the last minute.

This was my actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 - At about 5 minutes to post.
Code:
 

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	1.7	4.7	9.1	BET	PRF	 
 	$5	$11	$20	 	 	 
 	$336	$159	$90	$585	$322	55%
 	$907	$906	$909	 	 	 
 
This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 At Post Time Odds.
Code:

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	1.6	4.5	9.0	BET	PRF	 
 	$5	$11	$20	 	 	 
 	$362	$171	$94	$627	$314	51%
 	$941	$941	$940	 	 	 

 
BTW I wont be answering any future questions of yours until you have the courtesy of answering the questions I posted on your thread.
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Old 02-16-2019, 10:34 PM   #510
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BTW I wont be answering any future questions of yours until you have the courtesy of answering the questions I posted on your thread.
Nitro I offered comment's to your inquiry in note 60 of the thread in question.
my comments centered on timing of the plays.
If I were ever able to believe I could make long terms profits with my methods, I would address your other inquires.

thanks for your reply, i'll try to comprehend your strategy.
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