Is it my imagination or is Del Mar morning line awful?

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by metro

Is your friend a novice? If not why would he base his entire tournament on a m/l?

No he's an experienced player. The dream scenario for any tournament player is having your best bet be in the final race of a tournament.

He was trying to get to an amount that would land him in the top 5 if his horse won the 11th on Sunday at 6-1.

When I told him that horse would be 3-1 or 5/2 it completely changed his strategy leading up to that race and it turned out badly.

There is ZERO reason to play a tournament unless you are myopically focused on hitting the prize money.

A similar thing happened to me a few years back a few years back in the BCBC at Del Mar.

I thought KNICKS GO was an international cinch. I was also very sure he would be no higher than 8/5. I thought I would need $40,000 if I were to make an all in win bet on him to hit the top 5.

With three races left I had $15,000. I tried and failed to at least double that by the Classic. I was left with $2000 in to the Classic and ended up playing two $1000 straight exactas to Max Player and I can't remember the other horse.

Had I known KNICKS GO was going to be 3-1 I would have simply waited. Bet the entire amount on him and finished top 5.

Yes I know knowing what price a horse will be is incumbent on me as the player. And this story doesn't have much to do with the morning line.

What I am saying is in tournament play everything, if you're playing correctly, should be designed to go ALL IN somewhere late on Sunday.

Later the better.

He was playing to get 6-1 on MEGA MOON. When I broke the bad news he was in a very tough spot. He did bet a little over $2000 on him and played another $1000 in exactas and tris. It got him to 14th place which is the same as finishing in 114th place.

[ReplayRandall]

Every strategy has its pitfalls.....

Nothing is new except those who are contrarian thinkers, and that approach is almost mainstream now.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Nitro,

I will take you at your word that you were a serious handicapper for years that found the ticket to success with your tote board method and now will never go back. So assuming that is indeed the truth I have some questions for you.

What good does that do any of us. Your tote board method is not for sale (at least that is what you have posted in the past). Other than on rare occasions you don't post your tote board plays. So what is the point of you telling us how how good it is and how pointless it is for us to try to bet this game without it? Why are we the negative ones in attempting to beat this game despite the fact that the powers that be have done everything in their power to make this game unbeatable without rebates. Aren't you the negative one? In your op in this thread you basically told me that I am wasting my time handicapping a pick six mandatory payout. I have seen many of examples of these things paying many times a parlay, yet according to you I am wasting my time trying to figure it out. Wouldn't that mean basically that I am wasting my time ever betting a race without the "tote analysis". Let's take that to it's ultimate conclusion. I and all others here should never bet a race without the tote analysis. But we do not have access to this tote
analysis, thus in your world, we should never bet. But we are the negative ones? Go figure.

In your quest to enlighten us about how successful your "tote analysis" is you typically post 5 horses a race (I think it was more when you used to post Hong Kong". You have a disclaimer that you don't bet every race, so how does your most faithful follower determine what race is playable and what isn't. Moreover, if a race is not playable shouldn't that be denoted with the term unplayable for them to know it is not playable. Moreover if your top 2 horses come 1st 2nd or 3rd and your other horses complete the superfecta you give yourself credit for the superfecta. So just on the $2 superfecta alone (because you seem to always highlight the $2 payout) your cost would be a little high. Assuming 1-2 are your top 2 horses and 3-4-5 are the rest of your contenders, the play would be at minimum (to hit it once)

1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $96

3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $72

3-4-5 w 3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $48

cost for those 3 tickets alone $216. So when you highlight that the superfecta might have paid $700 on the one you hit. It is a tease. It is "tout" like.

Moreover, if you want to convince us that your tote method is indeed that special, why not just keep a running score. Example, I bet 7 superfectas at $216 each for a cost of $1512. Return was $2183. Keep bringing these returns forward. Why do you put the onus on others in this forum to track the math themselves, if indeed your sole purpose is to show us the light.


You have a curious obsession with trying to sell the entire forum on this tote analysis. I posted a thread about the Del Mar morning line being bad, and another poster (trifecta) correctly pointed out that there was a mistake in one of the morning lines (how often does that happen?). But your input was to ridicule me for even suggesting the morning line was bad (as if you would have a clue-considering you didn't even handicap the races) and then as you usually do went full promotion of your tote board methodology along with early money. But my understanding is you personally are not even aware of what makes a horse good on the software you use. So what exactly should I be looking for on the early money? 10-1 at 2-1, 10-1 at 6-1 or do you even know.?

You are no different than a small child that has a big piece of candy and want to let everyone know how big his candy is while none of the other kids have any candy. But there is something wrong with us? What would you have us do? Track all your plays. Determine that you are indeed profitable (when you can easily do that yourself as explained above) and then beg you to post your 5 horses so we can win too? Is that your ultimate goal? If not, what is your ultimate goal?

Nitro, I have no idea who you are. But Poindexter just roasted your nuts in a big bad way.

Post of the month Poindexter and that includes July.

Nitro, if you're winning. Why do you care about proving it to anyone? Isn't the cash enough?

As for your methodology. It seems like some sort of system. Which on the VERY RARE occasion one is found that briefly works. Sharing it with anyone will certainly cause it to eat itself.

Bottom line. Sound like you're full of crappola and Poindexter has just outed you.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Sorry to say but I believe it is your imagination!
Too bad that you’re wasting your time with Horizontal plays. The Opening Line is far more telling than the M/L, but if you’re playing the Pick-whatever bets you certainly can’t take advantage of the sometimes very obvious early action.
I’m not going spell it out but you can see for yourself just how rewarding the following of money movement can be when monitored properly and taken seriously:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=177622

If Nitro wouldn't post asinine comments like this, no one would have said anything.

But, at 70 years old, Nick hasn't learned his lesson yet, and must be reminded over and over again of his nonsense....Sad.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Nitro, I have no idea who you are. But Poindexter just roasted your nuts in a big bad way.

Post of the month Poindexter and that includes July.

Nitro, if you're winning. Why do you care about proving it to anyone? Isn't the cash enough?

As for your methodology. It seems like some sort of system. Which on the VERY RARE occasion one is found that briefly works. Sharing it with anyone will certainly cause it to eat itself.

Bottom line. Sound like you're full of crappola and Poindexter has just outed you.

Not only roasted his nuts, but did so quite civilly I might add...which makes it that much more effective.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Nitro,

I posted a thread about the Del Mar morning line being bad, and another poster (trifecta) correctly pointed out that there was a mistake in one of the morning lines (how often does that happen?). But your input was to ridicule me for even suggesting the morning line was bad (as if you would have a clue-considering you didn't even handicap the races) and then as you usually do went full promotion of your tote board methodology along with early money.

This is what he always does. He is just a hit-and-run artist who starts attacking posters for no reason, and then when the posters retaliate, Nitro pathetically resorts to playing the role of the "victim" here. The OTHER posters are the "ill-mannered" ones who 'personally besmirch' him.

[thaskalos]

Nitro's selections for a given race are...1-2/ 3-4-5,

The race comes out...3-5-2,

And Nitro declares: "I got all of that one!"

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Every strategy has its pitfalls.....

Nothing is new except those who are contrarian thinkers, and that approach is almost mainstream now.

I agree, and I am now working on an "anti-contrarian" method, in order to remain a step ahead of the competition.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Nitro, I have no idea who you are. But Poindexter just roasted your nuts in a big bad way.

Post of the month Poindexter and that includes July.

Nitro, if you're winning. Why do you care about proving it to anyone? Isn't the cash enough?

As for your methodology. It seems like some sort of system. Which on the VERY RARE occasion one is found that briefly works. Sharing it with anyone will certainly cause it to eat itself.

Bottom line. Sound like you're full of crappola and Poindexter has just outed you.

Sounds like that's very important to you of all people. I hope you enjoyed it!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Nitro,
I will take you at your word that you were a serious handicapper for years that found the ticket to success with your tote board method and now will never go back. So assuming that is indeed the truth I have some questions for you.

What good does that do any of us. Your tote board method is not for sale (at least that is what you have posted in the past). Other than on rare occasions you don't post your tote board plays. So what is the point of you telling us how how good it is and how pointless it is for us to try to bet this game without it? Why are we the negative ones in attempting to beat this game despite the fact that the powers that be have done everything in their power to make this game unbeatable without rebates. Aren't you the negative one? In your op in this thread you basically told me that I am wasting my time handicapping a pick six mandatory payout. I have seen many of examples of these things paying many times a parlay, yet according to you I am wasting my time trying to figure it out. Wouldn't that mean basically that I am wasting my time ever betting a race without the "tote analysis". Let's take that to it's ultimate conclusion. I and all others here should never bet a race without the tote analysis. But we do not have access to this tote
analysis, thus in your world, we should never bet. But we are the negative ones? Go figure.

In your quest to enlighten us about how successful your "tote analysis" is you typically post 5 horses a race (I think it was more when you used to post Hong Kong". You have a disclaimer that you don't bet every race, so how does your most faithful follower determine what race is playable and what isn't. Moreover, if a race is not playable shouldn't that be denoted with the term unplayable for them to know it is not playable. Moreover if your top 2 horses come 1st 2nd or 3rd and your other horses complete the superfecta you give yourself credit for the superfecta. So just on the $2 superfecta alone (because you seem to always highlight the $2 payout) your cost would be a little high. Assuming 1-2 are your top 2 horses and 3-4-5 are the rest of your contenders, the play would be at minimum (to hit it once)

1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $96

3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $72

3-4-5 w 3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $48

cost for those 3 tickets alone $216. So when you highlight that the superfecta might have paid $700 on the one you hit. It is a tease. It is "tout" like.

Moreover, if you want to convince us that your tote method is indeed that special, why not just keep a running score. Example, I bet 7 superfectas at $216 each for a cost of $1512. Return was $2183. Keep bringing these returns forward. Why do you put the onus on others in this forum to track the math themselves, if indeed your sole purpose is to show us the light.


You have a curious obsession with trying to sell the entire forum on this tote analysis. I posted a thread about the Del Mar morning line being bad, and another poster (trifecta) correctly pointed out that there was a mistake in one of the morning lines (how often does that happen?). But your input was to ridicule me for even suggesting the morning line was bad (as if you would have a clue-considering you didn't even handicap the races) and then as you usually do went full promotion of your tote board methodology along with early money. But my understanding is you personally are not even aware of what makes a horse good on the software you use. So what exactly should I be looking for on the early money? 10-1 at 2-1, 10-1 at 6-1 or do you even know.?

You are no different than a small child that has a big piece of candy and want to let everyone know how big his candy is while none of the other kids have any candy. But there is something wrong with us? What would you have us do? Track all your plays. Determine that you are indeed profitable (when you can easily do that yourself as explained above) and then beg you to post your 5 horses so we can win too? Is that your ultimate goal? If not, what is your ultimate goal?

Now that you mention it, I would honestly say that my ultimate goals are threefold.

First and foremost, to share what I believe to be worthwhile information by posting it in the Selection forum. This way others might want to take advantage of some timely news. We all know what the long-term winning player % is. So, what’s the harm of maintaining the spirit of that forum vibrant by “Sharing the Wealth”. Of course, there are many that ignore good info no matter what the source might be. These same players share the same self-destructive philosophy by asserting that “it’s my way or the highway” attitude when it comes to playing this game. I also think it unfortunate that so many members can only offer opinionated gossip on so many inconsequential topics rather than justifying their credibility by offering valued information. So, one might want to ask them your same question.

Secondly, I want to create an awareness by demonstrating that there’s a very valid alternative method to approach this game. What better way to do that than not only explaining its basic functionality (which I’ve done in many posts), but to also show the results by posting convincing selections on a regular basis.

Lastly, what I own is much larger than a big piece of candy. Many don’t realize that not only does this methodology offer sound and profitable results, but what it really does (for me anyway) is allow me to better enjoy a game I’ve been playing for the better part of 50 years. No more pouring over past performance data. No more worrying about track variants or current conditions. No more worrying about potential scratches. No more keeping thousands of horse names in my head. Etc., etc. The bottom line is that all the time I used to devote to finding winning solutions has been used to better enjoy over all family life and relations. That may not be everyone’s priority but when you look back over time some might realize just how important that is. As I’ve mentioned before I now simply start the download of the tote data used by 12 mins to post. There are 3 additional intervals during a typical betting cycle with the last ending at about 3 mins to post. A decision is then made based on a comparison of the betting patterns of all the entries. If the entries of interest show sufficient value any number of possible plays can be made. So in about 9 minutes I’m capable of very often making what I believe to be a good decision.

BTW I think you should brush up on structuring Vertical plays using 2 key entries with 2 or 3 other entries.
GL
.

[PaceAdvantage]

So you're just looking for a pat on the back from the plebs?

No proof of what you claim...but you want to be hailed as a conquering hero anyway?

YouTube

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Nitro...

I posted multiple threads in which I made at least 500 wagers...and kept detailed track of such wagers and showed a profit after 500+ wagers...more than once.

No ambivalence to what I was wagering or what the results were.

Each day I would post the exact results of my wagers in the thread and also the CUMULATIVE results...updated daily.

I challenge you to do the same.

Hell, not even 500.

Let's start with 100.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Not only roasted his nuts, but did so quite civilly I might add...which makes it that much more effective.

100%

[metro]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

No he's an experienced player. The dream scenario for any tournament player is having your best bet be in the final race of a tournament.

He was trying to get to an amount that would land him in the top 5 if his horse won the 11th on Sunday at 6-1.

When I told him that horse would be 3-1 or 5/2 it completely changed his strategy leading up to that race and it turned out badly.

There is ZERO reason to play a tournament unless you are myopically focused on hitting the prize money.

A similar thing happened to me a few years back a few years back in the BCBC at Del Mar.

I thought KNICKS GO was an international cinch. I was also very sure he would be no higher than 8/5. I thought I would need $40,000 if I were to make an all in win bet on him to hit the top 5.

With three races left I had $15,000. I tried and failed to at least double that by the Classic. I was left with $2000 in to the Classic and ended up playing two $1000 straight exactas to Max Player and I can't remember the other horse.

Had I known KNICKS GO was going to be 3-1 I would have simply waited. Bet the entire amount on him and finished top 5.

Yes I know knowing what price a horse will be is incumbent on me as the player. And this story doesn't have much to do with the morning line.

What I am saying is in tournament play everything, if you're playing correctly, should be designed to go ALL IN somewhere late on Sunday.

Later the better.

He was playing to get 6-1 on MEGA MOON. When I broke the bad news he was in a very tough spot. He did bet a little over $2000 on him and played another $1000 in exactas and tris. It got him to 14th place which is the same as finishing in 114th place.

He must have money to burn if placing 14th, instead of 114th, in a cash tournament didn't matter. Good for him if he does.

I understand your point, and hope it helps your game, but until they start offering wagering on how close you can get to the m/l before the race starts the m/l is mostly irrelevant to me. It's just another person's take on a race.

The only time I ever reference it is when texting racing friends about a horse worth a wager, but telling them it likely won't be what the DRF has the m/l for the horse at. Almost texted one out today but didn't because of an outside post position. Ellis Park race 6, Musical Mischief, the horse stuck out like a sore thumb. 12-1 m/l, off at 2-1, finished 5th.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So you're just looking for a pat on the back from the plebs?

No proof of what you claim...but you want to be hailed as a conquering hero anyway?

So that is what you got out of my spelling out of my “ultimate goals” above?
That's Sad, really Sad.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Hey Nitro...

I posted multiple threads in which I made at least 500 wagers...and kept detailed track of such wagers and showed a profit after 500+ wagers...more than once.

No ambivalence to what I was wagering or what the results were.

Each day I would post the exact results of my wagers in the thread and also the CUMULATIVE results...updated daily.

I challenge you to do the same.

Hell, not even 500. Let's start with 100.

So, you posted some 500 plays. Congratulations! But forgive me because I don’t recall the O.A results.

A challenge? Sorry! Been there and done that.

I guess you also missed my detailed thread covering 20 days and 182 races at Hong Kong.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...hing+Hong+Kong
I’m not going to reiterate everything that went on because I think the entire thread speaks for itself in terms of the potential profit using a pre-race static tote analysis to determine entries of interest for a successful 3-entry Dutch Win scheme.

I’ve since improved my O.A. results by using my personal hit frequency statistics based on monitoring how well the selections performed when considering the Class and Distance of each of the races that were analyzed. Through this refinement and by avoiding those type of low performing races my O.A. hit frequency is now averaging about 65%.

No, I don’t plan on repeating this tedious exercise, so I guess you’ll just have to take it at face value. Like everything else around here it did create some controversy along the way, but the ill-informed didn’t quite understand the O.A. premise of this mission.

BTW, when was the last time any of the skeptics or their cohorts provide anything remotely similar to that type of self-imposed assignment?
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