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Old 02-12-2017, 10:26 PM   #166
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2/13/17 (SAM HOUSTON ANALYSIS SHEET FREE ON MON)

SAM HOUSTON 8 CLM 25K, 5F TURF (3:19)

5 MAJESTIC HOLIDAY 9-5
3 STARSHIP MISCHIEF 2-1
4 BLINGIN’ ROSE 9-2
7 VENETIAN 8-1

PICK: 5 MAJESTIC HOLIDAY (9-5)
This filly fires every time for this trainer. She is 2 for 3 with a sharp 3rd in the 3 starts for Torrez. Terrible with anyone else. Winner in turf race at LS 3 back is now a stakes type at FG. Could have some physical problems so be a bit careful here. However, if she’s right, she should have little trouble with this field.

VALUE: 3 STARSHIP MISCHIEF (2-1)
This really looks like a two-horse race. If the top choice doesn’t fire, this one should be a tough customer. She ran well in her debut for 50k at GP. Wasn’t seen for 14 months so it was expected she might need one but she blew the doors off an overmatched field. Is not much turf pedigree but handled it at GP.

A) 3,5 B) 4 C) 7
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Old 02-19-2017, 02:16 PM   #167
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2/19/17

SA RACE 10 MDN CLM 50K, 6.5F DIRT (5:00)

7 SMUGGLER UNION 8-1
10 HITTERS PARK 7-2
3 SUPER TOUCH 4-1
1 PAPA ROYAL 12-1

PICK: 7 SMUGGLER UNION (8-1)
He’s faced MSW for all five of his career starts and has a few efforts that would likely win this race. Clipped heels in his last start as the 2-1 second choice and didn’t finish afterwards. Comes back w/ a fine set of drills and makes the slight drop he needs for this. He looks ready.

VALUE: 1 PAPA ROYAL (12-1)
Drew wide post for his last start at LRC and tried to show some speed while in a wide position. Notice the strong drill on 1/27 (3rd of 101 at the 5F distance). 1st try on dirt here at SA. Very much a big player on the class drop at longer odds.

A) 1,3,7,10 B) 6,8 C) 2,4,5,9
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Old 02-25-2017, 02:01 PM   #168
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2/25/17

SA3 SENSTL STAR 100K, 6.5F TURF (1:29)

1 BETTYS BAMBINO 6-5
4 AMBITIOUS BREW 2-1
2 RICHARD’S BOY 3-1
5 FOREST CHATTER 7-2

PICK: 1 BETTYS BAMBINO (6-5)
Fragile but very talented 7YO has won 7 of his 11 starts and is 6 for 9 on the turf. Only two starts since 2014 but both are stakes wins. Came off a layoff to win in a stakes race in 3 consecutive starts. 4 horse field will eliminate any real traffic from rail. Love that slow 4F 5 days ago.

VALUE: 4 AMBITIOUS BREW (2-1)
It appears two of the runners in here are going to go out together and the other 2 are going to wait. This one and the top choice will be closing together but this one has more tactical speed. Smith won with him two back. 5 for 11 here at SA.

A) 1 B) 2,4 C) 5
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Old 02-26-2017, 12:57 PM   #169
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2/26/17

SANTA ANITA

RACE 3 CLM 20K, 7F DIRT (1:29)

3 BASINCA 4-1 OCAMPO
2 MATRICULATE 3-1 TALAMO
5 JONNY’S CHOICE 5-1 GARCIA
7 SPUD SPIVENS 6-1 ELLIOTT

PICK: 3 BASINCA (4-1)
Looked great winning two back. Took lot of money to go off favored. Went up to 50k first off the claim for Diodoro and missed the break. Last 5x Diodoro was 2nd off the claim and making a huge drop, won twice and was in the exacta all 5.

VALUE: 2 MATRICULATE (3-1)
Have to take notice of what Bill Spawr is doing. He’s 10 for 22 at the meet (45%) and has this one coming in off a game win. Won his last two sprints and has handled SA very well.

A) 2,3,5 B) 1,7 C) 4,6
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Old 02-26-2017, 11:35 PM   #170
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Sam Houston is FREE today at the link in the signature

SAM HOUSTON 2/27/17
RACE 1 MSW 19K, 6F DIRT (12:05)

3 LADY LONDON 4-5
7 MALIBU MAID 9-2
4 CLASSE D’ORO 8-1
8 BEADS AND BLINGS 15-1

PICK: 3 LADY LONDON (4-5)
Was 2nd in her last start after pressing the early pace. The winner broke well from an inside post and went wire to wire. 6th from that race, Shezaking, beaten 12, ran 3rd by 14.5 in the same MSW that #4 in this race Classe d’Oro, was 4th. Runner-up in the 1st start came back to win a MSW at RP by 5.

VALUE: 4 CLASSE D’ORO (8-1)
Winner of her last start was a firster who ran off by 10 after being bet down to the 4-5 fav. Comes back in just six days. This trainer has had two such short comeback runners here at HOU. One of them won in MSW, the other was a close 2nd in a MSW.

A) 3 B) 4,7,8 C) 1,2,5
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Old 03-04-2017, 02:21 PM   #171
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Full card for Santa Anita - Last 5 at Gulfstream and Last 3 at Oaklawn Park available at the link in signature below

SANTA ANITA 3.4.17
5 CLM 8K, 6F DIRT (2:29)

3 ANTINANCO 10-1
1 JUSTONEMORETHING 5-1
4 SWISS WAGER 8-1
10 PROHIBITION REPEAL 6-1

PICK: 1 ANTINANCO (10-1)
Had an apprentice rider on in his last start and he was moved too quickly to a fast pace and tired late. Run 3 back would win this race when he was 2nd at 42-1. Both wins came here. He will get a good trip from off the pace here.

VALUE: 1 JUSTONEMORETHING (5-1)
Game win from the rail in last start at the 6,250 level. This rider has been up twice and he outran his odds in both. First start for this trainer but his wife won a few upsets. Gets pace to run at.

A) 3 B) 1,4,6,10 C) 2,5,9
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Old 03-05-2017, 03:23 PM   #172
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SANTA ANITA 3.5.17
RACE 6 MSW 54K, 1M TURF (3:00)

4 DOMESTIC VINTAGE 4-1 BEJARANO
2 YELLOW BONNET 4-1 PRAT
5 ONZAWAY 8-1 ESPINOZA
9 MANDY D 12-1 BLANC

PICK: 4 DOMESTIC VINTAGE (4-1)
Has excuses in all 4 of her starts. Might have bled in debut, got L1 next out. Steadied and wide in 2nd start but still ran well for a 2nd place finish. Steadied on inside in last and lost any chance in last. 2nd dam a sib to ’06 Ky Derby runner-up, Bluegrass Cat.

VALUE: 2 YELLOW BONNET (4-1)
Always liked it when a runner is sold for 25x their sire fee. Is lot of turf in the pedigree and she’s handled it pretty well. Game in the runner-up finish in last when she set a slow pace. Prat 2nd time up for a sharp outfit. She’s moving in the right direction.

A) 2,4 B) 5,6,8,9 C) 1,3,7,10
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Old 03-11-2017, 01:36 PM   #173
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SANTA ANITA 3.11.17

RACE 1 STR ALLW 40K, 6F DIRT (12:00)

5 HOOK ‘EM KURT 9-5
6 ST. RENO 8-5
3 MAGIC TASTE 5-1
4 CLASSIC RULER 9-2

PICK: 5 HOOK ‘EM KURT (9-5)
Was gelded before his last race and that worked. He won despite extremely wide trip. Sharp drill in the interim. Faced better previously. Right back.

VALUE: 3 MAGIC TASTE (5-1)

A) 5,6 B) 3 C) 1,2,4
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Old 03-12-2017, 01:55 PM   #174
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3/12/17

SA RACE1 CLM 20K, 1M DIRT (12:30)

1 BACKINTHEACADEMY 3-1
4 MARGIE’S MINUTE 8-5
3 DRAGON FLOWER 6-1
2 MIDNIGHT CANDY 9-5

PICK: 1 BACKINTHEACADEMY (3-1)
She’s never been a turf runner, so throw out last two. Big drop in class and adds a top rider. Will be on, near the lead in paceless race. Saves ground.

VALUE: 3 DRAGON FLOWER (6-1)

A) 1,4 B) 2,3,5 C)
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Old 03-18-2017, 02:43 PM   #175
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SANTA ANITA 3.18.17

10 MSW 54K, 1M TURF (5:18)

2 CANDY’S MARTINI 6-1
7 BURNT COGNAC 7-2
8 MARCKIE’S WATER 7-2
9 I’D BE SAD AN BLUE 5-1

PICK: 2 CANDY’S MARTINI (6-1)
Don’t blame Morey for moving this one to the grass. His half-sib is the multiple stakes turf winner, Patriots Rule, took 500k on the grass. Debut was ho-hum as he ran evenly and split the field of 10 in there. Working more seriously since.

VALUE: 7 BURNT COGNAC (7-2)
Mandella runner ran well in both of his turf starts, the first came against open MSW at GG. 10 post cost him two back. 2nd place finisher came back to win here last weekend. Clockers been impressed with the works. May be live off a layoff.

A) 2,7 B) 8,9 C) 4,5
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Old 03-19-2017, 12:52 PM   #176
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Santa Anita 3/19/17

1 CLM 16K, 5.5F DIRT (12:30)

3 NO PROBLEM 5-2
2 LAST ONE STANDING 3-1
5 JUANSAGAIN 2-1
1 ROYAL F J 7-2

PICK: 3 NO PROBLEM (5-2)
Takes a big class drop but he was at this level one year ago and won at 4-1. Was wide and in deep in his last start. Big late run two back for a 25k tag.

VALUE: 2 LAST ONE STANDING (3-1)

A) 2,3,5 B) C) 1
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Old 03-25-2017, 03:23 AM   #177
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You can get the full card analysis sheets for Dubai World Cup card, Turfway Park and Santa Anita at the link in the signature below

SANTA ANITA 3.25.17

1 CLM 25K, 6.5 TURF (12:30)

10 ZURI CHOP 5-1
11 SUCCESS RATE 12-1
5 MALKO 8-1
3 ZINVOR 4-1

PICK: 10 ZURI CHOP (5-1)
Takes a slight drop in class and moves back to the turf. Outside post an advantage here.

VALUE: 11 SUCCESS RATE (12-1)

A) 5,10,11 B) 3,7 C) 2,6
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Old 03-26-2017, 02:26 PM   #178
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SANTA ANITA 3.26.17

4 HCP 40K, 1M 1/8 TURF (2:01)

3 WARREN’S JEN FIZZ 8-1
1 NINE POINT NINE 8-5
6 LIAR’S SMOKER 6-1
4 ENDURING ERIN 4-5

PICK: 3 WARREN’S JEN FIZZ (8-1)
This is a trip handicapper’s dream here. She’s drawn either the rail or the widest post in her last 5 turf routes and has all kinds of traffic in most of them. Will get a perfect trip rating off the pace here. It could be a meltdown. Will finish strong.

VALUE: 6 LIAR’S SMOKER (6-1)
She is 6 for 16 on the turf and you can make an excuse for her last two starts in So. Cal. Was on a soft track two starts back and was sprinting last out. Just as the top choice, she’ll should get a quick pace to come into. Top call rider is up.

A) 1,3 B) 4,6 C) 2
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:22 AM   #179
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SANTA ANITA 4/1/17

11 ARAB-G1 100K, 1M 1/16 (5:32)

5 PADDYS DAY 6-5
1 EASTER MAN 5-2
8 SAND VICTOR 12-1
12 DREAM PEARL 8-1

PICK: 5 PADDYS DAY (6-5)
Got a big rider change in his last out and it did the trick as he was an easy winner of the G1 Nahn Cup, race he won for the 2nd year in a row. He’s a 17x winner and has a good stalking style. 2nd in this race last year at 4-5.

VALUE: 8 SAND VICTOR (12-1)
Got up to beat the top choice in a G2 race at LA two back. It was the last time this rider was up. He’s 3 for 5 when he’s been aboard. Think he’ll sit off a pace that will be very quick.

A) 5 B) 1,8,12 C) 4,7
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Old 04-02-2017, 12:27 PM   #180
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Santa Anita 4/2/17

RACE 1 MSW 54K, 6.5F TURF (12:30)

2 TINA’S EXCHANGE 5-2
5 MAGIC MIRACLE 3-1
4 OREGON 5-1
1 HEAT 7-2

PICK: 2 TINA’S EXCHANGE (5-2)
Big effort at nearly 20-1 in the debut on the dirt. Winner came back and was 2nd by a neck in an allw. 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th won back next out. 3rd and 8th ran in the top 3 next. Dam is a half to $1.7M turf winner Midnight Storm. Wins w/ repeat effort.

VALUE: 4 OREGON (5-1)
Didn’t get away all that well in the first start but was facing a pretty strong field there. The winner has since come back to hit the board in graded stakes races. 5th won next out. $10k sire fee but went 21x that price. High percentage team.

A) 2 B) 1,4,5 C) 3,6
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