Can you fade Fierceness?

[Lefty26]

If Fierceness breaks well, he will essentially have all the speed inside of him and Johnny V will be able to make a decision based on what he thinks the pace is.

I bet Fierceness in the derby pool 4 pretty heavily after his Holy Bull race and was able to get 16-1 and also had bet him at 8-1 in pool 3. I will use him on top and wheel him around as I do think he hits the board.

My other derby pool horse was Catching Freedom, who I have at 57-1, 28-1 and 31-1 in the pools. This horse to me just gets better and better each time out. He will have to navigate traffic from the 4 hole, but if he finds space, I believe he will outkick Sierra Leone.

That's my big exacta, but will use both in wheels for tri's and super's and more than likely both on top with all in exacta.

Always a great day of racing! Hoping the rain stays away.

[bisket]

Fierceness shakes the voodoo that comes with post 17. Now we don’t have to sacrifice a chicken on Pace

[Fightingirish51195]

I think leaving him off of verticals and horizontals would be dangerous.

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by Lefty26

If Fierceness breaks well, he will essentially have all the speed inside of him and Johnny V will be able to make a decision based on what he thinks the pace is.

I bet Fierceness in the derby pool 4 pretty heavily after his Holy Bull race and was able to get 16-1 and also had bet him at 8-1 in pool 3. I will use him on top and wheel him around as I do think he hits the board.

My other derby pool horse was Catching Freedom, who I have at 57-1, 28-1 and 31-1 in the pools. This horse to me just gets better and better each time out. He will have to navigate traffic from the 4 hole, but if he finds space, I believe he will outkick Sierra Leone.

That's my big exacta, but will use both in wheels for tri's and super's and more than likely both on top with all in exacta.

Always a great day of racing! Hoping the rain stays away.

I believe if you're looking for the overlay in this race, it's probably Catching Freedom. SL is going to take money that would ordinarily go there. And there's nothing wrong with Freedom's kick. Forever Young is another one hard to toss. You could cover a lot of losing tickets if that box hits.

[Vince P 777]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not saying this is the correct conclusion or strategy, but you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.

You could use him on top with any live bombs you like but leave him off tickets with other short or medium priced contenders.

That way if he wins with a bomb underneath, you'll get paid and if he's out completely you'll get paid, but if he comes in with Sierra Leone or some other such horse you'll lose but it's not like you missed out on some major score.

Completely agree with your train of thought re wagering.

I wouldn't be shocked if wins by 3, nor if he loses by 17 lengths as JV sorta eases/saves him once he's through.

Vince

[f2tornado]

Andrew Beyer is taking Fierceness. That's historically been a kiss of death for this specific race.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Andrew Beyer is taking Fierceness.

On the DRF webinar, sounded like Beyer was standing by Fierceness's figures on principle.

He also said he doesn't want any horse that hasn't run a fig in the high 90s. Although Just a Touch is his second choice at 96.

Beyer estimated a 100 top fig for Forever Young. That's a notable second best if you dismiss the 101 Mystik Dan ran in the slop.

I had nearly talked myself out of the favorite at the height of Derby fever, but I probably can't get there, and will stick with the strategy I posted earlier.

Fierceness's speed figures really do stand out. The top half of the field under him posts a pretty smooth gradient of top figs from 100 to 95. That starts way below Fierceness at 110.

Even his 105 in the BC Juvenile clearly bests the field—his third race, as a 2y.o., as classy as any run by these.

He fares nearly as well on the TFUS scale.

Obviously there are ways for him to lose. But at some point, it's irrational to just dismiss him. His backers should be thankful for the Holy Bull. Otherwise he'd be 8-5.

[rastajenk]

I think if he had fired in the Holy Bull he'd be less than even.

[BlueChip@DRF]

It's a good thing speed figures don't run the race.

[Lefty26]

I like freedom's kick and the fact that he's gotten more mature each race. He and SL should be flying home down the stretch and think freedom can outkick SL. The problem with those two is will they not run into traffic. If the traffic opens up and they have lanes, they will make it close. If there is a bunch on the final turn into the stretch, they will have to decide to stay near the rail and find a path or go 7/8 wide.

With Encino's scratch, I think the race sets up even better for Fierceness in my opinion. That was one horse that was going to go and keep the pace very honest.

I truly believe if Fierceness breaks well, it will be his race to lose as he will be able to dictate what they want to do. Take the lead or stalk any inside speed.

I am fading SL and Forever Young on Saturday. If they beat me, so be it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

It's a good thing speed figures don't run the race.

That's the thing with him.

He had tough trips and suspect conditions in his bad races, but even if you semi excuse those races due to trouble, track conditions, being short a layoff etc... imo a really TOP CLASS horse would have run through those trips and perhaps lost, but looked better than he did.

Then you look at his really fast races and they are absolutely dominant over the rest of the field, but he had easy trips in those races. He was either on a speed favoring track, loose against a very weak field, stalking a soft pace on the best part of the track etc..

So a good case can be made he's better than he looks in the bad races but not quite as good as looks in the good ones.

Maybe that still makes him the most likely winner, but he's not someone I'd be anxious to bet as the favorite. At the same time, I'm not particularly anxious to totally toss him out of everything either.

[bisket]

It’s pretty simple for me Fierceness’s top figures came on days when there were good races to base a figure. Some have compared him to Bellamy Rode. I don’t see that as both his fast races were similar performances. So I don’t see it as something that he can’t repeat again. His races are so much better than other runners it’s going to take a decided edge pace wise and trip wise to beat him. He can overcome some racing luck and still win handily. I’m giving him a mulligan for the Holy Bull. If I were training him I wouldn’t have had him at his best. His works the last few weeks show he’s in good form for the race.

[Bustin Stones]

If you run a Monte Carlo simulation 1000 times, every horse will hit the board because pace and traffic will vary. Just because Fierceness runs them off their feet more often than he gets out closed in the simulation, doesn't mean that's what will happen this Saturday. I continue to maintain that the biggest part of the problem is that 20 horses is 4 too many to consider it a fair contest.

[bisket]

Fierceness has this cloud hanging over him.. I explained to the lady of the house the bad ju ju this poor colt was up against breaking from the 17 post. Then Encino was scratched and the sun came out. Then last night we find out Andy Beyer picked Fierceness to win the derby. So I talked to her about voodoo behind Beyer picking a horse to win the derby. I suggested that maybe we could sacrifice a chicken for Fierceness to overcome all the bad ju ju surrounding him again. She said by no means we’re killing a chicken so a horse can win the derby, but she could make roasted chicken for dinner Saturday. So anyone who feels Fierceness is the undeniable choice Saturday can feel good at the windows. Plus I scored a chicken dinner.

[Bustin Stones]

We have much we can learn from you Sensei.