Stevie Goes to Woodbine: Relax, Don't Do It

[gordo]

I like Woodbine despite the high takeout and the Polytrack that so many peope hate. I think Woodbine favors the traditional old school handicapper who can read through 14 hores' pps and toss 6, 8, or 10 horses and then make a reasonabe bet with the rest. Too many of the current class of handicapper loves to bet 6 horse fields with 2 OK horses and 4 also rans.

To me, the big fields are like betting the Kentucky Derby without as much hype. You can bet a trifecta and cash out a fortune if you did a good job of handicapping.

I have a friend who loves to bet chalk with $40, $50 or $100 across the board and hopes to beak even on some races and cash on others. I think is like playing blackjack, not handicapping.

I guess I am saying that a serious handiapper can still beat Woodbine's takeout by beating the people who are aproaching large fields like they do the US tracks with 5-7 horse fields...by piling money on one or two horses. I think this track destroys the casual bettor at the expense of a good bettors.

If that's good for the sport long term is debatable, but I think it pays well for the current handicappers.

Gordo

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Gordo, at what takeout level do you think would make it impossible to win at Woodbine in the long run?

[gordo]

Hi Horseplayersbet.com,
Honestly its hard to give you an answer on this. It depends on the competition and to some extent, it depends on field size. Clearly high takeout hurts the horseplayer, but small field size could be as bad or worse for the horse player. Or at least its bad for this horse player.

Overall I am a negative ROI person. If I wasn't I would probably be doing this professionally. Instead, I have a professional job and donate to the other horseplayers at this point in my life.

It might be hard to win at Woodbine in the current environment, but for my betting style its not as bad as some others. I just checked my online account for ROI. For Keeneland for the year I am +0.26/dollar. Woodbine is -$0.01. Gulfstream is +0.18. Saratoga is -$0.51. Delmar is is -$0.42. Santa Anita is -$0.06. Hollywood is -$0.41.

Obviously I shouldn't bet Saratoga, Delmar and Hollywood. But on Woodbine I am doing OK. Generally I do OK on big fields because I can pick some high odds horses.

Its hard for me to say I like a high takeout track, but whenever they race full fields, I will check them out and likely make a bet.
Gordo

[sammy the sage]

I just hit a monster tri keyed to a 40/1 shot so I don't care,

Guess we should just call you CAPTAIN REDBOARD.

[Imriledup]

Del Mar has big fields, large payouts, massive pick 6 carryovers, bigger pools than woodbine and polytrack and i think, lower takeout. Why not bet at Del Mar?

Could it be that smarter handicappers gravitate to lower takeouts?

I know this is sacrilege, but when Hialeah was offering their races with the highest takeout rates in the world, i was actually scanning their cards for value because i theorized that no smart players were betting those races at those takeout rates.

Funny thing is that if a track gets a reputation for having high takeout rates, it may actually be value for some people to bet into these pools because the extra 1 or 2 pct higher takeout gets rid of enough 'pros' where you are actually better off betting into the higher take just to get rid of better handicapping competition.

I won't even look at Woodbine, which means that's more money for 46z.

The 64 dollar question (or, is it the 4 SIX dollar ?) is this:

Do horseplayers have a responsibility to avoid tracks with excessive takeout rates even if they are currently winning?

If tracks believe that players don't care about takeout, the rates will keep rising and rising and rising until they get to the point where Mr Zilzal will NOT win and guess what? its people like him that you can blame for patronizing a place that's gauging their customers.

Woodbine has a bunch of slots money to give away and exactly ZERO of those dollars go towards lowering takeout rates.

[eastie]

Originally Posted by banacek

The only way that a track with a higher takeout can be more profitable than one with a lower takeout is if the other bettors at a high takeout track are stupider than the ones at the low takeout track.

It pays to know whom the competition is. You want to bet NY against TLG and guys like him, or at Woodbine against a bunch of Canadians drinking Molson talking aboot hockey

[proximity]

Originally Posted by toetoe

On his DRF site, Steve Crist gushed about his sojourn at Woodbine, but he failed to mention the following usurious takeout rates...
.

who cares about the takeout?

how did he like their chinese food?

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by gordo

Clearly high takeout hurts the horseplayer, but small field size could be as bad or worse for the horse player.

I have a payout criteria, ie, an average expected payout based on a $2 bet. Wagering small fields is not worth my time handicapping.

I figure my time in as a (valuable) cost factor when looking thru racecards. If I can only afford to play 3 races a day, I'm going to pick the ones that will return the most dollars to me.....after track take-out.


My question is: Sometimes, even with track takeout, aren't there times when it's more profitable for the casual bettor to play woodbine big fields high odds?

I'm not talking about the big guy who wagers 600K+ a year.

[OTIS]

Originally Posted by eastie

It pays to know whom the competition is. You want to bet NY against TLG and guys like him, or at Woodbine against a bunch of Canadians drinking Molson talking aboot hockey

lol, eh!

[WinterTriangle]

Ever seen this NIFTY Woodbine track maintenance report? Done everyday, the track superintendant tells you exactly what is going to be done to the track (cultivator, gallop master, power harrow), all of which affects your handicapping for the day.
Great customer service, IMHO:

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com...conditions.asp

[jballscalls]

I like watching Woodbine, and a guy at simo outlet who i'm buddies with absolutely crushes it on a day in day out basis.

"I don't play NYRA and their low takeout because i can't pick winners at NYRA, never have gotten a feel for NY. i play Woodbine because i have a feel for it and pick winners, what pays more winning at a high takeout track, or losing at a low one?"

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

NYRA and their low takeout

But that's just it --- takeoutwise, NYRA is about as bad, which I didn't take the time to notice before starting this thread. .