2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 on the Turf: (from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-1, (2)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 11:45 PM SAT EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis came up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….....….. 2-6-4 W/11-3-8 ………….11:45 PM EST –

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T………....… 2-3-6 W/ 13-1-12 ……..…12:15 AM EST –

R#3 - 1000M C2 (5F)T………....… 1-2-4 W/ 3-6-5 ............12:45 AM EST -

R#4 - 1600M C4 (8F)T……....….. 10-9-14 W/ 7-2-6 …….....1:15 AM EST –

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.…….…..… 4-12-7 W/ 2-13-8 ………..2:05 AM EST –

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T………..….. 1-6-5 W/ 10-12-3 ……....2:40 AM EST –

R#7 – 1600M C1 (8F)T……....….. 4-13-3 W/ 9-7-2 ..........3:10 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……....…… 7-12-9 W/ 5-2-8 ……....…3:40 AM EST –

R#9 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.…….….…. 5-11-8 W/ 4-1-2 …..….….4:15 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T........... 9-1-14 W/ 11-3-5 ………..4:50 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1000M C4 (5F)T……...….. 2-6-4 W/11-3-8 ………….11:45 PM EST –

2-10-13-8 – Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin - PASSED

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T………..… 2-3-6 W/ 13-1-12 ……..…12:15 AM EST –

2-3-4-1 – Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin & $19.10 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1000M C2 (5F)T………...… 1-2-4 W/ 3-6-5 / Late Substitute w/ #3 & #4 – better all around action on #3 .........12:45 AM EST -

3-2-6-5 – Dutch Win 82% Profit Margin / $25.70 Quin & $179.60 Tri / All of That One!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1600M C4 (8F)T……....….. 10-9-14 W/ 7-2-6 …….....1:15 AM EST –

9-3-6-13 – BIG Dutch Win 158% Profit Margin

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.…….…..… 4-12-7 W/ 2-13-8 ………..2:05 AM EST –

4-13-1-14 – Dutch Win 35% Profit Margin – PASSED / $18.80 Quin

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T………..….. 1-6-5 W/ 10-12-3 ……....2:40 AM EST –

12-10-1-3 – Dutch Win 49% Profit Margin - PASSED / $56.90 Quin & $687.00 Tri / All of That One!

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1600M C1 (8F)T……....….. 4-13-3 W/ 9-7-2 .........3:10 AM EST –

9-7-4-3 – Dutch Loss 73% Profit Margin / $31.40 Quin & $430.40 Tri / All of That One!

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……....…… 7-12-9 W/ 5-2-8 ……..…3:40 AM EST –

8-7-2-3 – Dutch Loss 82% Profit Margin / $31.90 Quin & $346.60 Tri / All of That One!

[Tee]

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.…….….…. 5-11-8 W/ 4-1-2 / A few changes due to heavy betting on #14 and #4 was dropped - 5-11-14 W/8-1-2 …….….4:15 AM EST –

13-14-11-2 – Dutch Loss 48% Profit Margin - PASSED

[Tee]

[Nitro]

#1 Scratched[

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T............ 9-14-3 W/ 5-11-4 / ……….4:50 AM EST

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T............ 9-14-3 W/ 5-11-4 ……….4:50 AM EST –

5-9-7-4 – Dutch Win 43% Profit Margin - PASSED / $23.90 Quin

All in all it was another fun & profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 30% and was hit with 3 wins from 6 playable races. There were quite a few decent Verticals as well.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 28, 2018 24th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 67 Degrees Cloudy 20% of Rain Wind: NE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181128_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Le Pegase (2-1) Was all out in the stretch after getting everything his own way on the front end while getting a nice weight advantage and beating a bad Class 5 field, he should find company on the lead in here tonight.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 087 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 4th)
Race 6 Flying Monkey (14-1)

Race 149 (Winners: 2nd, 4th & 5th)
Race 6 Compassion Star (16-1)

Race 088 (Winners: 2nd, 4th & 10th, Second: 1st)
Race 7 Fairy Twins (5-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 King Of Mongolia (24-1)
Race 6 Flying Monkey (14-1)
Race 7 Fairy Twins (5-1)


Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 New Elegance (4-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 8 Powermax (18-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Goko (17-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Helene Charisma (2-1) He may have found his proper class finally, a year ago this runner was running in the $18,000,000HK Vase on HKIR day, now he’s in with Class 3 runners. He broke from the 11 post tonight and was taken back immediately after the start to the rail by ridder Douglas Whyte, saved ground until the stretch where Douglas took him off of it looking for running room but at the 240 mark was forced to be taken up when Bigwood beat him to a hole he was trying to get through. Whyte then took him down towards the rail for another hole but was unlucky there too and was steadied again at the 180 metre mark, was hand ridden for the remainder off the race and galloped out past the top two finishers soon after the wire.

Race 6 Golden Glory (5-1) He has been very unlucky at the draw in his last three races catching all outside post. Tonight he drew in with a second time starter Champion Supreme out of the Casper Fownes barn who was taking quite a bit of action at the windows. He broke well but soon afterwards was bumped sideways by the runner underneath him Manful Star who was bumped by Noble Delight who had taken a left turn. Leung settled him in the fourth flight down the backside, moved to the seven path entering the stretch and finished well to the wire only missing by a half-length to Looking Good out for Frankie Lor.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 5 Penzance (8-1)


Key Plays:
Race 6 Golden Glory (5-1)
Race 7 Fairy Twins (5-1)


Longshots:
Race 2 Cool Army (15-1)
Race 5 Penzance (8-1)
Race 8 Fantastic Feeling (10-1)